1 Trends in Diversity: A National Perspective Bryan J. Cook Director Center for Policy Analysis American Council on Education

2 “By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.” –President Barak Obama

Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) Current US Degree Attainment Top OECD Country 37%55%

4 The Problem: 2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) Degree Attainment + US citizens with some college, no degree = US Degree Attainment 37%21%58%

5 Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) US citizens with some college, no degree earn degree + Maintain 2007 Degree Attainment = US Attainment 12.6%37%49.6%

6 Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) US citizens with some college, no degree earn degree + Maintain 2007 Degree Attainment = US AttainmentEstimated Top OECD Country 12.6%37%49.6%60% 10.4% gap remains between U.S. Attainment and conservative estimate of top OECD Country

7 The Problem: Definition of Degree Attainment Number of Americans that hold a college degree = Degree Attainment Total American population

8 The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34) RacePercent with college degree in 2007 Increase in population by 2020 Hispanic20%30% Black28%23% White47%8% Asian73%15%

9 Percent Population Age with a Least an AA Degree 2005

10 Michigan Population Projections by Race, 2025

11 A National Portrait

12 Distribution of Population by Race, 2008

13 Distribution of 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008

14 Distribution of Midwest Population by Race, 2008

15 High School 4yr Graduation Rates (2003)

16 High School 4yr Graduation Rates

17 High School Completion Rates for year old population

18 Immediate College Enrollment Rates for year old population

19 United States Year Old Population by Race, 2008

20 Michigan 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008

21 Midwestern 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race

22 Four Year Enrollment

23 Distribution of Race at Four Year Schools, 1996 and 2006 Race White71%62% African American10%11% Hispanic6%8% Asian5%6% American Indian1% Foreign4% Race Unknown4%8%

24 Michigan Four-Year Enrollment

25 Distribution of Race at Michigan Four Year Schools, 1996 and 2006 Race White76%71% African American10%11% Hispanic2%3% Asian3%4% American Indian1% Foreign5% Race Unknown3%6%

26 Two Year Enrollment

27 Distribution of Race at Two Year Schools, 1996 and 2006 Race White65%57% African American11%13% Hispanic11%15% Asian6% American Indian1% Foreign2%1% Race Unknown4%6%

28 Michigan Two-Year Enrollment

29 Distribution of Race at Michigan Two Year Schools, 1996 and 2006 Race White79%69% African American11%15% Hispanic2%3% Asian2% American Indian1% Foreign1%2% Race Unknown4%9%

30 Graduation Rates

31 Public 4-year Graduation Rates 2007

32 Public 2-year Graduation Rates 2007

33 Gender Equity

34 Percentage of Undergraduates Aged 24 or Younger Who Are Male Percentage of College Students by Gender All U.S. Men48%46% African American Men37%41% American Indian Men45%49% Asian American Men54%49% Hispanic Men45%42% White Men44.8%43.6%

35 Percent of Undergraduates Who Are Male by Race and Income, 2007 Low IncomeMiddle Income High Income White44%48%51% African American 42%45%48% Hispanic42%44%48% Asian45%53%52%

36 New Reporting Requirements for Race/Ethnicity

37 Old Reporting CategoriesNew Reporting Categories White, non HispanicWhite Black, non HispanicBlack HispanicHispanic (of any race) Asian/Pacific IslanderAsian American Indian/Alaskan NativeAmerican Indian or Alaska Native Race UnknownNative Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Non Resident AlienRace Unknown Non Resident Alien Two or more races

38 Overview Educational Attainment major goal HS graduation rates are bad Growing diversity, especially at two year schools) Gender Equity: income important New R/E reporting requirements will impact racial diversity trend data.

39 Q & A Bryan J Cook