STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES November 1, 2014* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS INCOME VS. EXPENDITURES (In Millions) (2.56%) (2.3%) (2.88%) (3.66%)

General Revenue Fund Sources Trend Based Projections, In Millions (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) Ave. 4.3% Growth Ave. 6.5% Growth Ave. 1.3% Growth Ave. 5.1% Growth Ave. 4.3% Growth OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS FY-2016 – FY-2017 SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS JUNE BOE EST.

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year) 6.0% 4.6% 4.7% 10.6% (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) 0.5% 1.1% 4.8% ACTUALS Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend- Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding 4.7% JUNE BOE ESTIMATE

PROJECTIONS OF GRF DECLINE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL COLLECTIONS ACTUALS PROJECTIONS