ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data. INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998 ). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology. STUDY AREA AND BASIC DATA: ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR, SOUTH AMERICA BIBLIOGRAPHY : Cáceres, B., Maisincho, L., Taupin, J.D., Francou, B., Cadier, E., Delachaux, F., Bucher, R., Villacís, M., Paredes, D., Chazarin, J.P., Garcés, A., y Remy Laval, Glaciares del Ecuador: Antizana y Carihuayrazo. Balance de masa, Topografía, Meteorología e Hidrología. Informe del año IRD, INAMHI, EMAAP-QUITO. Quito. Sémiond, H., Francou, B., Ayabaca, E., De la Cruz, A. y Ramón Chango El Glaciar 15 del Antizana Investigaciones glaciológicas 1994 – IFEA-ORSTOM, ORSTOM-CNRS, EMAAP-QUITO, INAMHI. Quito. Freile, Daniela & Manciati Carla, 2007 Relación a escala mensual y estacional entre la información hidrometeorológica local y regionaly la fusión de los glaciares tropicales del Ecuador. Casos de estudio: Glaciar15 y Glaciar “CRESPOS” del nevado Antisana. Tesis de Grado. Escuela Politécnica Nacional. ECUADOR Glacier 15 α and Los Crespos study area Source: INFORME ANUAL 2004 GREATICE Drawn by: Cáceres & Villacís, 2005 LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INFORMATION LOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers. REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito) ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society ( provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long- wave radiation. Daniela Freile 1, Carla Manciati 1,2, and Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez 1,3 world water day, march LOCAL INDICES, REGIONAL VARIABLES AND GLOBAL REANALYSIS MODELS TO EXPLAIN MELTING IN THE ABLATION ZONE AND LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES LOCAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FULL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODEL SIMPLIFIED REGIONAL MODEL CONCLUSIONS: 1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years. 2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention. 3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9-month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers. CONCLUSIONS: 1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years. 2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention. 3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9-month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers. LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier. REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region. GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier. LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier. REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region. GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier. Antisana Icecap South America 1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2 University of Montpellier, France 3 Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA 1 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2 University of Montpellier, France 3 Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA EPN