A nation prepared for and ready to effectively respond to weather-dependent events Moving Toward A Weather Ready Nation Moving Toward A Weather Ready Nation David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center

2 A Changing World Deepwater Horizon Over 100 days’ deployment “Snowmaggedon” DC – Baltimore Paralyzed for 7 days “Snowmaggedon” DC – Baltimore Paralyzed for 7 days Iceland Volcanic Ash $2B Aviation Impacts Iceland Volcanic Ash $2B Aviation Impacts 2010: Unprecedented Disasters

3 2011: A Year of Extremes 14 Weather and Climate Billion Dollar Disasters

4 Increased Vulnerability to High-Impact Weather A Changing World Increased Vulnerability to High-Impact Weather

5 Population Shifts, Technological Dependence A Changing World Population Shifts, Technological Dependence

6 Four Pillars of NOAA’s Success NOAA’s Response to the Challenge Four Pillars of NOAA’s Success CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE OBSERVATIONS PEOPLE COMPUTATION & MODELING RESEARCH

7 NWS Evolves Operations Executing the Strategic WRN Vision NWS Roadmap NWS Strategic Plan NOAA Strategic Plan NWS WRN Roadmap Implementation Plan 2020_001 S&T Plan Services Plan Workforce Evolution Plan Business Plan 2012

8 NWS Response What is a Weather-Ready Nation?  Society is Prepared for and Effectively Responds to Weather- Dependent Events What will it take to build a Weather-Ready Nation?  Evolves Operations  Enhanced decision support services, a common operating picture from latest observation platforms and models, community risk assessments  NOAA leads integration of Weather, Water, Climate IDSS with help from social scientists  Creates National Movement for Weather-readiness  National Dialogue with partners: series of symposiums to assess why the nation is more vulnerable and identify how to improve preparedness  NWS leads partnered public education initiative to improve societal response to weather information and warnings  Americans will know how and when to take action Build a Weather-Ready Nation

9 NWS Evolves Service Operations Build a Little, Test a Little, Field a Little Six NWS Pilot Projects:  Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS):  Urban region – Sterling, Va.,  Coastal region – New Orleans  Regional level – Fort Worth  National level – Silver Spring –  Integrated environmental services – WFO Tampa, FL –  Mesoscale Science – WFO Charleston, WV

10 SignificanceSignificance Better information for better decisions  Accuracy and specificity give people confidence to act For example:  When a mother in Nebraska hears a tornado warning detailing the intensity and track of the tornado, she understands that she should go to the basement now, not in a half hour.  When a hurricane will make landfall in North Carolina, emergency managers will have a new level of support from NWS emergency response specialists.  Forecasts will focus on impacts. For example, “two inches of snow an hour” may become “roads will be impassable due to heavy snowfall during rush hour.”  Environmental forecasts will help people manage chronic respiratory illnesses such as asthma. What does it mean for you?

11 Goal and Strategic Approach Create a National Movement Goal and Strategic Approach Start a national movement to save American lives and livelihoods by creating a Weather-Ready Nation Introduce Weather-Ready Nation to NOAA employees Conduct communication campaign at the national and local levels linking the reality of extreme/intense weather to the need for a WRN  National team led by NWS Communications with NOAA External Affairs, NESDIS, OAR, NOS Create a WRN national movement on two fronts: 1. Weather Enterprise & Emergency Management; 2. The Public.

12 Initiated a National Conversation Improve public understanding of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather Stimulate discussion with public, partners, and stakeholders on solutions for reducing impacts Evaluate opportunities for improving:  User-driven impact-based forecasts/warnings  Integration of social and natural sciences into services  Service delivery across the weather enterprise  Community planning and impacts mitigation

Key Actions Norman WRN National Conversation Key Actions 1. Integrate social and physical sciences – from research to operations 2. Review strategies to reduce false alarms 3. Update warning dissemination strategy 4. Advance physical modeling of severe weather (Warn on Forecast) 5. Improve outreach and education to supported agencies and groups: FEMA, emergency managers, threatened communities. 6. Evolve the NWS Service Assessment following major severe weather outbreaks into one more like the NTSB assessments following major transportation disasters. 13

Future WRN Conversations December 2011 Weather Ready Nation – A Vital Conversation (held in Norman) 23 January 2012 AMS Town Hall to report on Norman Workshop outcomes to the community 1-3 March 2012 National Severe Weather Workshop in Norman April 2012 AMS Washington Forum “Towards a Weather, Water, and Climate Ready Nation” April 2012 Workshop on Social and Physical Sciences

15 Social Marketing Campaign NOAA Communications Campaign Social Marketing Campaign  Elevate public consciousness about weather readiness  Messages: Public Safety, Economic Stability, Vibrant Businesses Tactics:  National public media campaign  Severe weather season campaign push  Grassroots efforts by NOAA local offices Create a National Movement through a Social Marketing Campaign

16  Observing Weather and Climate From the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks  When Weather Matters: Science and Services to Meet Critical Societal Needs  Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service’s Modernization Program  Phase 1: Lessons learned  Phase 2: Lessons applied to NWS future Meeting the Nation’s Needs Building a Weather-Ready Nation Continuing Dialogue with National Academy of Sciences

17 Weather-Ready Nation Web Site Weather-Ready Nation Web Site

18 Photo Credit: Associated Press

A nation prepared for and ready to effectively respond to weather-dependent events Moving Toward A Weather Ready Nation Moving Toward A Weather Ready Nation David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center