Trends in Higher Education: Internationally, Nationally, State-wide, & Locally Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak Coconino Community College Strategic Planning Retreat September 26, 2007

Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education The World is Flat….T. Friedman Three Billion New Capitalists….C. Prestowitz The Flight of the Creative Class…R. Florida The Experience Economy…..B. Pine & J. Gilmore Etc…. Reference these texts Pass them around

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004 10 20 30 40 50 60 Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway United States Spain France Finland Australia Denmark United Kingdom Netherlands Iceland Luxembourg Switzerland New Zealand Greece Poland Germany Austria Mexico Hungary Portugal Italy Slovak Republic Czech Republic Turkey 25 to 34 45 to 54 US is being left behind in the global economy We were once the envy of the world Now we are 8th best in terms of ed attainment We’ll continue to deteriorate if the status quo is acceptable

The Aging U.S. Workforce Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020 The college participation rate is high for students from high socio-economic status families, regardless of academic ability and preparation. The college participation rate is substantially lower for students from low socio-economic status families, even when they are high in academic ability and preparation. Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001 Baby Boomers are retiring. In next 13 years employees 55 and over will drop by 100s of 1000s. Jobs they filled will be open. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Growth in Demand - At same time, AZ is projected to see record numbers of high school graduates through 2018. There will be a particularly strong increase in the number of Hispanic student graduates. Some of the projected HS graduation numbers are being fueled by AZ ‘s population growth which currently stands around 6.2 million. It is expected to be 8.3 million in ten years. While Coconino County is not expected to grow at the same rate, growth will be there from its current 135K residents to nearly 155K in next ten years. Source; Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education

In Arizona, for every 100 ninth graders... 66 graduate from high school 31 enter college 20 are still enrolled by sophomore year 15 of the 100 complete degrees in six years NCHEMS Information Center, 2002 While we expect to see significant increases in the number of high school attendees, there are serious challenges. 1/3 of 9th graders will not graduate from high school 2/3 s will not enter college 1/5 will continue only to the sophomore year of college. Only 15% of current AZ 9th graders today will complete a Bachelor’s degree in 6 yrs.

Education Required Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028 Labor projections indicate that between 1998 and 2028 there will be gap between the number of jobs requiring postsecondary experience, and the number of people with appropriate experience. Therefore, without significant training by community colleges (and other providers) there will be an under-trained US workforce, reducing productivity. With retirement of Baby Boomers and the economy trying to keep pace on a global scale, there is a demand far outstripping the projected supply of college educated workers. In 1998 supply/demand was about the same but now the gap shows 10K more jobs available than can be filled. Gap will grow to 30K jobs by 2028. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business

Training, tooling and directing the labor force—what community colleges do well—into knowledge workers. This is where community colleges step in because training, tooling and directing is what they do well.

What are knowledge workers? … those states that improve opportunities for education and training beyond high school advance their residents' employment prospects and the competitiveness of their overall workforce. Alan Wagner, Measuring Up Internationally: Developing Skills and Knowledge for the Global Knowledge Economy, National Center for Higher Education and Public Policy, September 2006 What are the knowledge workers? People who can think on their feet. People who look for solutions on their own. People who have specialized knowledge they bring to their employers.

Educational Attainment – Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associates Degree or Higher, 2005 48.7% 46.0% 45.7% 44.6% 44.2% 44.0% 43.7% 43.3% 42.8% 42.4% 41.7% 41.3% 40.7% 40.4% 40.1% 38.9% 38.8% 38.6% 38.4% 37.4% 37.3% 37.2% 37.1% 37.0% 36.6% 36.4% 36.1% 36.0% 35.9% 35.8% 35.3% 33.9% 33.7% 33.6% 33.2% 33.0% 31.8% 31.2% 30.8% 29.8% 29.0% 28.6% 28.5% 26.8% 26.5% 25.0% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Massachusetts Connecticut Colorado New Jersey Minnesota New Hampshire Vermont Maryland New York Virginia North Dakota Washington Rhode Island Hawaii Nebraska Illinois California Utah Kansas South Dakota Iowa United States Wisconsin Oregon Maine Delaware Pennsylvania Florida Montana Alaska North Carolina Michigan Georgia Arizona Wyoming Idaho Ohio New Mexico South Carolina Missouri Texas Oklahoma Indiana Alabama Tennessee Mississippi Nevada Kentucky Louisiana Arkansas West Virginia Situation is particularly critical in AZ because it is 33rd out of 50 in terms of percent of adults with an Assoc. Degree. Arizonans are less educated than most other states. Source: 2005 American Community Survey

Coconino County has relatively high educational attainment - Conversely, the reverse situation is true for Coconino County. We have a higher percent of the population with a high school diploma and a bachelor’s degree than elsewhere in AZ or in the US. While this may be true at present, a number of forecasters expect the next generation of Arizonans to be less well educated than their parents’ generation. . U.S. Census, 2006

College in AZ has become less affordable ARIZONA TRENDS: College in AZ has become less affordable Average Family Net College % Income Cost Needed $12,000 $7127 59% $26,912 $7608 28% $42,946 $8013 19% At the same time this situation is compounded by the fact that college is becoming less affordable, especially for lower income families. For example, if a low income family averaging 12K/year was to send one child to college, the college cost alone would consume the majority of the family budget for the year. Likewise a family struggling at 27K/year would invest more than a quarter of the family annual income. Even for families making a comfortable living at an average of 43K/year, sending one child to college would require about 1/5 of the family budget. If they had 4 children in college, there would be no family budget.

Coconino County has a relatively low income level - Despite Coco Co. residents having a fairly high educational attainment, salaries county-wide remain relatively low. Median income in Coco Co. is nearly 2K below median AZ family income and nearly 5K below the national median family income. U.S. Census, 2006

State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student ($), 2005 12,354 11,342 9,666 9,150 8,602 7,890 7,712 7,641 7,445 7,240 6,995 6,851 6,768 6,350 6,263 6,169 6,136 6,097 5,982 5,969 5,925 5,911 5,906 5,873 5,844 5,833 5,710 5,687 5,514 5,495 5,384 5,287 5,282 5,280 5,200 4,934 4,902 4,874 4,854 4,849 4,702 4,691 4,561 4,544 4,319 4,221 4,196 3,873 3,360 3,296 3,019 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Wyoming Alaska Hawaii Connecticut New Jersey Nevada Massachusetts New Mexico Georgia New York North Carolina Illinois Idaho Delaware Tennessee Rhode Island Kansas Wisconsin Maine Kentucky Arizona Nebraska Missouri Washington California Nation South Carolina Michigan Pennsylvania Minnesota Texas Utah Indiana Iowa Louisiana Virginia Alabama Oklahoma Florida Mississippi Ohio Arkansas South Dakota Maryland North Dakota Oregon West Virginia Montana Colorado New Hampshire Vermont On this slide AZ legislature would appear to be generous in its support of public higher education with AZ faring better than many of the states and above the national average in HE appropriations/full time student. Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers

These demographics, combined with disproportionate growth of the (lightly taxed) service economy, have created structural deficits in virtually every state. Source: NCHEMS: Don Boyd, (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005. However, the picture is a bit misleading when you look at appropriations on a per capita basis, the amount going to HE has decreased dramatically the last several years. In other words, appropriations is not keeping pace with the growth in population.

STUDENTS ENROLLED IN TWO-YEAR COLLEGES IN ARIZONA IN 2004: 217,597 Students or 53% of all Higher Education Enrollments. Community Colleges are the “College of Choice” for the Majority of Arizonans. The funding formula from the legislature has been dramatically different for universities than for community colleges. The formula has been much more generous to universities. And yet, more of the residents of AZ choose to attend cc’s.

CCC Operates With A Low Tax Rate - CC’s are the colleges of choice. We do know that AZ funds its CC’s less well than its 4-yr institutions. However, this is particularly problematic for CCC which operates on a lower property tax rate than other CC Districts in AZ.

Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006 An October 2005 USA Today survey found two of Arizona's three public universities have led the nation in tuition increases since 2002. The University of Arizona (UA) ranked first with a 74.1 percent increase, and Arizona State University (ASU) ranked fourth with a 70.4 percent increase. If recent history is any indication, average in-state tuition could jump from $4,500 to nearly $10,000--roughly a quarter of a typical Arizona family's annual household income--in just a few years. Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006 This being the situation—given that the appropriation rate and the tax structure may not significantly change in the next few years—our primary opportunity for growth in revenue still resides in the increase of enrollments. One of the major factors coming into play on our ability to spur enrollment growths is the exponential growth of tuition at the universities. The growth rate of tuition in AZ has been the 4th highest in the nation with a 70% increase. Some expect that instate tuition could jump from $4500 to 10K / yr in just a few years. If this happens, we won’t be able to build facilities fast enough to keep up with the demand.

Arizona & Affordability – Focus on Financial Aid Through 2005-2006 (last year for comparative data) -- Need-based aid: $2.8 million (43rd nationally) 23% increase over ten years (43rd nationally) $8.02 per Undergraduate FTE (49th nationally) 14th of 15 states in the WICHE Region WICHE average: $170 National average: $415 Arizonans rely more heavily on loans: Average loan amount in AZ – $3,762 Average loan amount in top states – $2,619 State investment in need-based financial aid as compared to the federal investment. Arizona/Federal Investment: 0% Top States/Federal Investment: 89% This is a devastating condemnation of where we are in AZ. State of AZ with more than 400K students in HE provides a paltry $2.8 million This places AZ 43rd out of 50 states in the nation (the other states WY/VT/NH) don’t have the population base to raise the aid. Consider over the last ten years how much the cost of housing/groceries/gas has gone up and consider that AZ has only increased need based aid by 23% during this time frame. Commitment to provide aid to the neediest of students has declined compared to the cost of all else. If you spread the 2.8 million over the undergraduate FTE, that amounts to only $8/student. Only WY does less. National average is about $415/student. AZ’s take out much more in loans as a consequence. Nationally, most states chip in .89/federal $. In AZ, there is no such support. Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, 2006-07, National Association of StateGrant and Aid Program and Measuring Up, 2006, 2006, NCPPHE

To Summarize….. Increased globalization of workforce Decreased #s of 55+ generation in the workforce Large AZ high school drop out problem coupled with high growth in Hispanic h. s. grad #s Increased workforce need over next 40 yrs of folks w/ some post-2nd Disparity in AZ educational attainment compared to County CCC District is high attainment and lower-than-average income AZ appropriations to HE in the upper middle with less support to community colleges AZ citizens pay increasing % of their income for post-2nd & rely heavily on loans In Addition….. National Spellings report focuses on Access, Accountability & Affordability

So? How does CCC position itself to address these demographics and challenges? How do the demographic shifts in learners effect how we program? competitively market? competitively recruit? How do these demographics effect our hiring practices? How do we become more competitive? W/ AZ low in ed attainment & Coconino County expecting a drop in attainment, how does CCC prepare/respond? W/ 75% of new jobs requiring some post-2nd & only 35% of US (25- 34 yrs) have 2+ yrs of post-2nd, how does CCC respond? W/ CCC District in low income & current high attainment, how does CCC respond? How does CCC position itself so that our limited financial resources are maintained and strengthened? Others?????