The Elbe 2002 Case Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Lorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf Podzun Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 heavy precipitation  flooding, land slides….. heat waves  drought, fires….. local to regional extension with high impact to society Will Europe face more extremes?

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 Dresden, August 2002 Century flood of Rhine and Moselle in December 1993 Century flood of Rhine and Moselle in December 1993 Century flood again of Rhine and Moselle in January 1995 Century flood again of Rhine and Moselle in January 1995 Century flood of the Oder in July 1997 Century flood of the Oder in July 1997 Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance in May 1999 Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance in May 1999 Extensive and long-lasting floods in western Europe, in particular south England and Wales, in the autumn of 2000 Extensive and long-lasting floods in western Europe, in particular south England and Wales, in the autumn of 2000 Flood of the Vistula in July 2001 Flood of the Vistula in July 2001 Flood of the Danube in August 2002 Flood of the Danube in August 2002 Century flood of the Elbe in August 2002 Century flood of the Elbe in August 2002 Extreme precipitation and dreadful floods in southern France in September 2002 Extreme precipitation and dreadful floods in southern France in September 2002 Severe flooding in parts along German rivers in January 2003 Severe flooding in parts along German rivers in January 2003 source: Spiegel Nr ; Quarterly report of the DWD, special topic July 2003

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 Elbe catchment area A = km 2 (65.6 % D, 33.7 % CZ)

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 Rudolf & Rapp (2003) : The century flood of the river elbe in August 2002: synoptic weather development and climatological aspects

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004

Aus Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2002) : Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004

Aus Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2002) : Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004

DresdenWittenbergMagdeburgWittenbergeNeu Darchau Catchments

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 Precipitation [mm / 72h] catchmentREMO climateREMO forecastObservations * Elbe52 (65%)68 (83%)80 Dresden82 (82%)89 (90%)99 Magdeburg64 (72%)71 (79%)89 Wittenberge58 (68%)74 (87%)85 Wittenberg82 (80%)91 (89%)102 Neu Darchau56 (70%)72 (92%)79 All data: :00 UTC to :00 UTC * Observations taken from: Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde: „Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet“

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 REMO + HD, DRESDEN

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 REMO + HD, Wittenberg

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 REMO + HD, Magdeburg

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004  Is it possible to simulate such extreme precipitation events as sub grid scale processes in regional climate models (this is a prerequisite for climate change studies)?  Which role plays the microphysics?  Microphysics versus realistic simulation of the synoptic scale? Conclusions / Questions

Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004 The COSMOS project- a community effort to build and use an ESM with focus on specific regions If you like to join COSMOS, please contact