Sergey Pulinets 1,2 1 Space Research Institute, RAS 2 Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Roshydromet Russia

* What experimental data and physical hypothesis stimulated research * Natural phenomena and anthropogenic effects – main contributors to the conception * LAIC model as a whole * Coupling with seismology * Multiparameter synergy – is the main precursor * What we lack and what we expect from future

Hoppel et al., 1986

King et al., 1993 Spivak, 2009

1998 S.A. Pulinets, V.V. Khegai, K.A. Boyarchuk, A.M. Lomonosov, Atmospheric Electric field as a Source of Ionospheric Variability, Physics-Uspekhi, 41, 1998, No 5, pp Pulinets S. A., K.A.Boyarchuk, V.V.Hegai, V.P.Kim and A.M.Lomonosov, Quasielectrostatic Model of Atmosphere- Thermosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, Adv. Space Res., 2000, 26, No 8, pp

Eresmaa, 2006 Mareev, 2010

Kirkby, 2008

Osprey et al., 2009

Hoppel et al., 1986 Fastrup et al., 2000

Fastrup et al., CLOUD proposal, 2000

Faults activation – permeability changes Gas discharges including radon emanation emanation Air ionization by  -particles – product of radon decay Ion-Induced Nucleation Humidity drop Latent heat release Air temperature growth Air conductivity change Atmospheric electric field growth Electric field effects within the ionosphere Earthquake clouds formation Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EF OLR anomalies Air pressure drop Jet-streams Field-aligned irregularities in magnetosphere in magnetosphere VLF noises trapping, VLF noises trapping, cyclotron interaction Particle precipitation

Thermal anomalies Ionospheric anomalies Latent heat release Boundary layer conductivity modification Ion induced nucleation

Кобе, Япония 10 янв Копала, Мексика 14 сент Typical radon variations Turkey L'Aquila, Italy April 6, 2009

Jan 18, 2001 Jan 19, 2001Jan 20, 2001Jan 21, 2001 Jan 22, 2001 Jan 17, 2001 Gujarat Earthquake (India); Date-Time :40:30 UTC, Location 23.40N 70.32E; Depth Km; Magnitude 7.7 (USGS NEIC) Ouzounov and Freund, 2004

Anomalous latent heat Dynamics around the time of M8.8 Southern Sumatra Earthquake Sept

Latent heat constant is 2400 J/g At the same time to increase the temperature of 1 m 3 of air by 1 C is necessary only 200 J. It means that condensation can significantly to increase the air temperature. Ionization + hydration effectiveness depends on the number of water molecules which 10 8 are attached to one ion. For the particle of 3 μ size the relationship of thermal energy released to energy necessary to ionize the air gas molecule (15-20 eV) is near 10 8 Basing on 3 different sources: Segovia et al, 2005; Inan et al., 2008, and Spivak, 2008 the mean radon activity can be estimated as 2000 Bq/m 3. Each  -particle emitted by 222 Rn with the average energy of E  =5.46 MeV can produce ~ 3  10 5 electron-ion pairs what gives the ions production rate ~6  10 8 m -3 s -1. ~ 8 W/m 2

ParamMagnitudeComments EQEQ 4.3 x J x J M ~ 9.3 earthquake, and 8.7, respectively E LH 3.1 x x J Latent heat anomalies of ~ 80 Wm -2 persisting for 5 days, over six, 200 km x 200 km grids; and ~ 100 Wm -2 persisting for 10 days, over nine, 200 km x 200 km grids, respectively for the 8.7 and 9.3 associated anomalies, respectively E TS <1.5 x x J KE of tsunami for km 3 displaced water (probably an upper limit) EMEM < 5 x J From yield strength & molecular binding forces involved in rupture of land ERER 6x J From change of rotational energy of the Earth

M7.6, Oct (a)Relative humidity drop; (b)Surface temperature by the MODIS data, AQUA satellite; (c)Anomalous latent heat flux; (d)OLR anomaly one week before the seismic shock; (e)GPS/TEC anomaly Bondur,2006 Kashmir earthquake October 8, 2005

L’Aquila, Italy,

Tertyshnikov et al. 2009

Geophysical ParameterSensorSensor nameSpatialTemporalAdvantages - Days Surface temperature (land and sea) SatPolar orbit: AVHRR, EOS MODIS, ASTER 90 m-5km1-2dayslong historic record, high spatial resolution 5-10 Meteorological informationGeosynchronous: GOES, METEOSAT 1-4km20min-1hhigh temporal resolution 4-7 Long Wave RadiationSatNOAA AVHRR 14,14,15,17,18 1 degreeTwice per day Global pre seismic indicator for major events 30-5 Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) SatNCEP2 degreeOnce per day coastal strong earthquakes 15-4 Ionospheric perturbations EM waves (VLF) and plasma parameters SatDEMETER--1 dayLow atmospheric disturbances 6-2 Space weatherSatNOAA--Kp Dst EQ catalog, Deformation mapsGrdUSGS-EQ catalog stress maps Aerosol contentsGrdAERONETVaryHourlyHigh temporal resolution 7-4 GPS/ Total Electron ContentGrdGPSVaryHourly5-3 Radon concentrationsGrdTurkey, IsraelVaryHourly14-3 Air Temperate/ Relative Humidity GrdMeteorological networkVaryHourly14-3 Atmospheric & Ground E fieldGrdTaiwan, CA, MexicoVaryHourly5-2 Magnetic filedGrdCA, Israel, TaiwanVaryHourly4-2 Courtesy of Anagnastopulos, 2011

OLR anomaly GPS TEC anomaly

a = M – km Dobrovolsky et al., 1989  = M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979 l(M 0 ) = exp(M 0 – c) + 2  Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990  = 10 A E 1/2 Bowman et al., 1998 Magnitude Earthquake preparation zone radius  (km)

M Oct, 2008; M6.3 – 22 Oct, October October 2008

MRan d1 Ran d2 > 4.8> 5.> 5.5> 6. All21.3 (15498) 23.8 (5954) 24.2 (6026) 24.7 (3502) 25.2 (943) 25.7 (279) Sea23.9 (4114) 25.4 (2666) 30.5 (1797) 30.4 (1097) 30.9 (301) 31.4 (76) Land18.7 (4956) 21.5 (2551) 20.0 (2001) 20.5 (1157) 21.6 (314) 22.7 (98) Ratio between the number of perturbations with T > 2 and the total number of cases for the 15 days before an EQ

Scholz et al., Science, 1973

PhenomenologyPhenomenology Physical model Specific features Precursor mask Statistic validation Practical application

NCEP surface temperature temperature Latent heat OLR Anomaly Ionospheric anomaly

Epicenter position Time of earthquake determination M=[log(900)]/0.43 = 6.9 Irpinia, Italy, 23 Nov. 1980, M6.9 Magnitude estimation  = M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979

* Atmospheric and ionospheric effects are intrinsic factors of earthquake preparation process together with activation of tectonic processes * LAIC can be used as a foundation for the complex multiparameter technique for the short-term earthquake warning * Special service should be organized for the global multiparameter monitoring