Trends in Video Delivery Michael Adams VP, Application Software Strategy March 2008

2 Agenda How is the delivery of video changing? Drivers Trends The future – 8 years out Summary

3 How is the video delivery model changing Trends –From One-way to Two-way –From Broadcast to On-demand –From TiVo to nPVR –From TV to TV, PC and mobile (3 screens) Why? –Customers are demanding it –Web leads them to expect it –Targeted advertising requires it What are the delivery network bandwidth consequences?

4 From One-way to Two-way HFC enabled real-time, two-way by segmenting the network into small service groups with manageable ingress noise characteristics. Real-time, two-way signaling was first deployed in digital cable deployments starting in late 1990’s. Real-time, two-way was a key enabling technology for VOD It also enables High Speed Internet and Voice over IP services Transition completed by 2005 (large operators)

5 From Broadcast to Unicast TV is gradually moving from a broadcast to a unicast delivery model. This trend started with on-demand programming for example movies on-demand and subscription on-demand (e.g. HBO on demand). Even for live programming, such as sports and news, there are advantages to unicast delivery: –Advertising can be targeted according to individual customer demographics and preferences –Splicing technology (called VOD play-listing) is now being incorporated into VOD servers –nPVR services can be seamlessly added without the need for an expensive DVR

6 From TiVo to nPVR TiVo is the service so loved by consumers it was even profiled in “Sex in the City”, but it does have drawbacks: –You have to remember to program it –Only so many tuners –Only so much storage –Prone to failure (spinning memory) –Cost Network Personal Video Recorder (nPVR) emulates a DVR and solves most of these problems. TWC pioneered an effort to obtain programming rights successfully with their “Start Over” service.

7 From TV to TV, PC and mobile devices For subscribers who had graduated college by 2005, PC is seen as an additional way to view video programming. For those younger, it is seen as a replacement! Comcast and TWC are starting to realize that their emerging new competitors are iTunes, NetFlix, and Blockbuster. Mobile video is the latest craze in Asia, and will likely spread in Europe and America. It is dependent on deployment of next generation wireless protocols (e.g. WiMax and LTE).

8 Delivery network bandwidth consequences? At 100% unicast, the network must be able to support concurrent sessions to every active device at peak busy hour. By segmenting the network into smaller service groups (typically 250 homes-passed or less), this is eminently achievable. For example, using HD MPEG-4 AVC at 8 Mbps, and 50% peak-usage: 250 * 80% penetration * 1.7 STBs/home * 50% * 8 Mbps = 1360 Mbps = 36 * 6 MHz 38 Mbps per channel = 216 MHz of downstream capacity.

9 Analog Longevity and Dual Must-Carry Under the FCC’s report and order, Cable Operators will be required from Feb to Feb to: –Carry a local broadcaster’s digital signal in analog and digital formats; or, –Carry the signal only in digital format, provided that all subscribers have the “necessary equipment” (digital set-top boxes) to view the broadcast content. –Carry the high-definition signal of broadcasters in high-definition format. But this is “only” signals from local broadcasters; there is no legal obstacle to migration of cable programming to all-digital.

Kbps Peak Modem Throughput (bps) K 300 bps Kbps 10K 100K 1M 1.2 Kbps 9.6 Kbps 14.4 Kbps 28 Kbps 33 Kbps 10M 100M 1G 128 Kbps 256 Kbps 512 Kbps 1 Mbps 5 Mbps 50 Mbps The Era of Dial-Up Modems The Era of Cable Modems The Era of Wideband Cable Modems 2010 Year ??? G 100G 12 Mbps 100 Mbps 1 Gbps 10 Gbps 100 Gbps 2016 Historical Peak Modem Throughput Trends* Bandwidth (bps) 30 Kbps 90 Kbps 100 Kbps 1 Mbps 10 Mbps ??? * with thanks to Tom Cloonan, ARRIS Average per-sub bandwidth

Kbps Peak Modem Throughput (bps) K 300 bps Kbps 10K 100K 1M 1.2 Kbps 9.6 Kbps 14.4 Kbps 28 Kbps 33 Kbps 10M 100M 1G 128 Kbps 256 Kbps 512 Kbps 1 Mbps 5 Mbps 50 Mbps The Era of Dial-Up Modems The Era of Cable Modems The Era of Wideband Cable Modems 2010 Year G 100G 12 Mbps 1 Gbps 10 Gbps 100 Gbps 2016 Trend Predicts 200 Mbps Modems in 2016* Bandwidth (bps) 30 Kbps 90 Kbps 100 Kbps 1 Mbps * with thanks to Tom Cloonan, ARRIS Constant Increase = ~1.4835x every year Average per-sub bandwidth will increase by a factor of ~100 over the next 8 years! 200 Mbps 11 Mbps

12 Comparison of DOCSIS Bandwidth Per Fiber Node (over time)* x2626 QAMs1 QAM # DOCSIS QAMs/Fiber Node x Offered Erlangs/Fiber Node w/ 14% utilization X1.6725%15%VoIP Take-rate x # 150-Kbps VoIP subs/Fiber Node x Mbps5.1 MbpsVoIP DS BW for P(B)=0.5% x34 x109 x31 x110 x0.33 X1.33 x0.25 Change 480 Mbps 4.8 Mbps Gbps 11 Mbps % 256 Year Homes Passed per Fiber Node 14 Mbps DOCSIS US BW/Fiber Node 44 KbpsAverage Per-Sub DOCSIS US BW 36 MbpsDOCSIS DS BW/Fiber Node 100 Kbps Average Per-Sub DOCSIS DS BW 308# DOCSIS subs/Fiber Node 30%DOCSIS Take-rate Year 2008 * with thanks to Tom Cloonan, ARRIS

13 Multi-Service Statistical Multiplexing In general, the larger the bandwidth of the channel in comparison to that of an individual stream, the better the statistical multiplexing efficiency. A multi-service mix of video streams (requiring guaranteed bandwidth) and web traffic (best effort) is the perfect mix. During peaks of video traffic, web packets can be discarded to force re-transmit and TCP-IP window adjustment.

14 Video traffic Web traffic Video traffic Web traffic A significant increase in efficiency and reduction of complexity is possible by moving to a bigger pipe. Multi-Service Statistical Multiplexing

15 Advanced Video (and Audio) Coding MPEG-4 AVC provides a 50% reduction in bandwidth for equivalent quality over MPEG-2. It has become established as the universal choice of CODEC for all devices (STBs, PC’s, PDA’s, etc.) In a DOCSIS 3.0 environment, a per-house cable modem could provide the network termination for all services (voice, video, and data). Next generation IP-only STB’s can be much cheaper because they do not require tuners and return transmitters, only a single Ethernet interface.

16 Summary We are seeing a compounding of trends: 1.From One-way to Two-way 2.From Broadcast to Unicast 3.From TiVo to nPVR 4.From TV to TV, PC, and mobile devices Delivery network consequences are manageable with today’s technology

17 Thank You Questions? Thank You!