Collaboration with ECMWF on Land Surface Hydrology Hannah Cloke Department of Meteorology Department of Geography & Environmental Science

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Presentation transcript:

Collaboration with ECMWF on Land Surface Hydrology Hannah Cloke Department of Meteorology Department of Geography & Environmental Science

25 member ensembles variations on Cycle 36R4 - System 4 (S4) Varying resolutions T159 / T255 4 month MJJA perturbed soil physics in HTESSEL atmospheric stochastic physics turned on/off Comparison to GPCP corrected ERA interim sensitive parameters are those which determine how active the soil hydrology is Perturbing within known distributions 1. Soil physics uncertainty experiment: ECMWF seasonal forecasts HTESSEL land surface scheme Cloke, H.L., Weisheimer, A., Pappenberger, F., (2012) Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme, in Proceedings of the ECMWF/WMO/WCRP workshop on "Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models" June 2011 at ECMWF, Reading, UK available from Journal article in prepwww.ecmwf,int

Sobol sensitivities to soil parameter perturbations for global regions 2m temperature Evaporation Precipitation Soil Moisture Z500

ERA-Interim/Land: A global land water resources dataset Balsamo GP, Albergel C, Beljaars A, Boussetta S, Brun E, Cloke HL, Dee D, Dutra E, Pappenberger F, De Rosnay P, Munoz-Sabater J, Stockdale T & F Vitart Submitted to Hydrology & Earth System Sciences hess Also see ERA report 13 on Cumulative distribution function of river discharge correlations of ERA-Interim (red) and ERA-Interim/Land (blue dashed line) with Global Runoff Data Centre data clustered by continents. 2. IFS water cycle verification: Special Project & research sabbatical Visiting Scientist > ERA-CLIM

3. European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) better preparedness and improved disaster and crisis management in Europe with trans- national flood early warning information to EC civil protection (MIC) and Member State authorities Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H. L., & 30 others HESS Opinions Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, , doi: /hess , operational centre run at ECMWF Bogner K, Cloke HL, Pappenberger F, Scheuerer M (in review) Probabilistic Flood Forecast Combination and Integration in an Operational Predictive Uncertainty Processor. Journal of Hydrology. Submitted Demeritt D, Nobert S, Cloke HL, Pappenberger F (2013) The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) and the communication, perception and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp ISSN doi: /hyp.9419

Research Department Model section: Gianpaolo Balsamo Re-analysis section: Dick Dee & reanalysis team Predictability Section Monthly forecasting team: Fredrik Wetterhall, Antje Weisheimer Seasonal forecasting team: Emanuel Dutra Forecast Department Evaluation Section NWP Applications team: Lorenzo Alfieri, Florian Pappenberger, Anna Mueller, Konrad Bogner Collaboration on Land Surface Hydrology

-LSP group: Emily Black, Andrea Manrique Sunen (PhD student*), Anne Verhoef (GES), Pier Luigi Vidale -ECMWF: Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anton Beljaars * Supervised by Black/Verhoef/Balsamo Topics: -Parameterisation of skin conductivity in C- Tessel -Comparing of C-Tessel canopy exchange with that in JULES -Derivation of soil moisture content from Memberstate soil temperatures for model verification 4. Collaboration of other members of Land Surface Processes (LSP) Group with scientists in ECMWF Seasonal variation of diurnal skin conductivity for Cabauw grassland Comparison of latent heat for C-Tessel (red) and JULES (green/blue) over Hyytiala forest (1998)