Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter- comparison, Improvement and Climate Impact Assessment Roberto Valdivia 1, John Antle 1, Lieven Claessens 2, Gerald Nelson 3, Cynthia Rosenzweig 4, Alex Ruane 4, and Joost Vervoort 5 1 Oregon State University; 2 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, ICRISAT; 3 Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign; 4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; 5 University of Oxford/CCAFS 1 AAEA Meeting Minneapolis, MN July 28, 2014

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment ◦ Earlier version: “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” (SRES) linked emissions to socio-economic development narratives and assumptions IPCC process for new “pathway” concepts ◦ RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways -> Global climate models ◦ SSPs: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways -> impact and vulnerability assessment However, we need pathways specific to the agricultural sector: ◦AgMIP: Developing and implementing Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS) – Cross cutting theme Pathways and Scenarios

RCPs, SSPs and RAPs Representative Ag Pathways economic & social development narratives soil & water resource trends agricultural technology trends prices and costs of production ag, mitigation & other policy

Linking Agriculture-Specific Pathways to SSPs: Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) Global RAPs: Global Economic Models and other non-modeled global socio-economic conditions: ◦ GDP, population & policy and trade, etc Regional RAPs: Allow us to include key drivers are likely to affect future bio-physical and socio- economic conditions: ◦ ag productivity trends, land use, policy, regional development ◦ farm size, system-specific productivity & management, infrastructure, etc -> Hierarchical structure (nested approach). SSPs: Framework for development of sectoral (e.g. agricultural) global and regional scenarios. AgMIP: Developing and implementing Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS)

Yield or value time current future Q1 Q3 Q2 Yield or value time current future Q1 Q3 Q2 Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change? This question addresses the isolated impacts of climate changes assuming that the production system does not change from its current state. Q2: What is the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems? Assessment of climate impacts on the future production system, which will differ from the current production system due to development in the agricultural sector Q3: What are the benefits of climate change adaptations? Assessment of the benefits of potential adaptation options in the future production system RAPS Why do we need RAPs? : The AgMIP RIA Core Research Questions:

Development of Representative Agricultural Pathways RAPs narratives provide a framework in which qualitative and quantitative information can be translated into model parameters These “pathways” are combinations of bio-physical, economic, technology and policy drivers that represent a plausible range of possible futures. They are not meant to be predictions, but rather provide researchers with a range of plausible scenarios that can be used to simulate possible future outcomes in a consistent and transparent way. Need a Multi- disciplinary team!

First meeting: 1.Start with a “Business as usual” (BAU) RAP 2.Team members identify key parameters that will likely be affected by higher level pathways and draft RAP narrative 3.Team members are assigned variables for research 4.Team members conduct research –use of templates for reporting and supporting documentation 5.Templates can be distributed to experts for feedback First meeting: 1.Start with a “Business as usual” (BAU) RAP 2.Team members identify key parameters that will likely be affected by higher level pathways and draft RAP narrative 3.Team members are assigned variables for research 4.Team members conduct research –use of templates for reporting and supporting documentation 5.Templates can be distributed to experts for feedback Second meeting: 5.Team members report findings and discuss storylines for each variable 6.BAU RAP is finalized 7.Additional RAPs are identified 8.Process similar to BAU is carried out 9.Additional background research Second meeting: 5.Team members report findings and discuss storylines for each variable 6.BAU RAP is finalized 7.Additional RAPs are identified 8.Process similar to BAU is carried out 9.Additional background research Create Additional RAPs RAPs distributed to stakeholders and outside experts Modelers develop scenarios RAPs Development Process

Tools for RAPs development: -DevRAP matrix and software: Construct RAPs narratives and quantify scenarios parameters for TOA- MD. Template to parameterize TOA-MD and document model scenarios -Reporting Templates: Help team members document background information specific to drivers under research -Pathways summary trends table: Helps to visually inform users about trends and magnitudes of key driver changes included in RAP narratives

AgMIP Regional Teams – RAPS development Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Asia

AgMIP Regional Teams – RAPS development Period of analysis: Mid-century Higher level Pathways:  SSP2  No Global RAPs. Data from IMPACT model (productivity and price trends)  Some teams have used information from CCAFS multi- country scenarios Types of RAPs : Business as Usual (BAU)  Pessimistic  Optimistic

Example: RAPs development: CLIP: Zimbabwe

Indicators Pessimistic RAP1.1 If there is no change of mindset and way of doing business, food security situation will continue to worsen Optimistic RAP 1.2 Favorable conditions for private and public investments in the agricultural sector will be created Degradation+++Extractive land use- Investments in NRM, secure ownership Size of cultivated land - Lack of labor, limited investment options - Intensified production on less land Herd size- Shift towards goats+ Improved feed and management Input prices+ + +Lack of local manufacturing and raw material + More players in processing industry against higher demand for inputs Input use- - -Lack of affordability and returns+ Market incentives, investment security, appropriate support Crop income- - -Low local production and competition with cheap imports ++Increased income from higher production Livestock income- - -Competition with cheap imports++High and unmet demand for livestock products Improved quality production Crop – livestock product imports + + +While national production is declining, the demand actually increases +/-Large potential to produce vs climatic risks (droughts, no national reserves) Off-farm income- - -Alternative income options are also limited - High farm productivity will keep more people in agriculture

AgMIP Regional Research Teams RAPs Trends Table: SSA BAU Pessimistic

AgMIP Regional Research Teams RAPs Trends Table: SA

Issues found in the process of developing RAPs: Identification of indicators Need a comprehensive list of indicators with definitions Data availability Finding reliable data (e.g. trends) at regional or local level, in particular for non-modeled activities Agreement on trends direction and magnitude Disciplinary bias “predictions” vs “plausible projections” Interaction with Stakeholders Policy or personal agendas, non-scientific description of RAPs Uncertainty Productivity and price trends, production costs

Way forward Revise current RAP narratives and corresponding model parameters Develop more RAPs for the same region but also cover additional regions Revise the RAPS development process (learning by doing!) Link regional RAPs to Global RAPs How? Methodological issues With Global RAPS, regional RAPS developed by AgMIP RRTs may need to be revised. RAPS for other regions (e.g. Latin America, East Asia, etc)

Thank You! Reminder: Session 2089 A New Transdisciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Africa and South Asia Track Session Int'l Tuesday, July 29, :30 pm – 6:00 pm Hyatt Regency; Second Level Acknowledgment: Thanks to AgMIP Research Teams for providing their RAPs information

DEVRAP Matrix Research and Reporting template