Climate Change and Food Security in Southern Africa Adopting a multi-level research approach John Ingram GECAFS Executive Officer Natural Environment Research Council

HADCM3 climate model projections of changes in a) temperature and b) precipitation for 2050 relative to mean conditions over the 1961 to 1990 period, under the IPCC SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario. a) b) Projected climate change in southern Africa MEA SAfMA Report, 2004 Slightly warmer Much warmer Drier Wetter

Issues Increasing climate variability & ENSO Veld degradation and biodiversity loss Reduced water availability Key Policy Goals Enhanced rural infrastructure & market access Better disaster response & “safety nets” Strong agricultural development to help achieve food security Southern Africa Example Stakeholders National ag & env ministries Regional universities Regional IGOs & NGOs (SADC, NEPAD, FANRPAN) International agencies (e.g. WFP, DfID, USAID, FEWSNet) Key southern African climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goals

Q1: How will changes in climate (and in other environmental parameters) affect the vulnerability of food systems in different parts of the region? Q2: How can food systems be adapted using technical and policy options to cope and improve food security? Q3: How will various adaptation options feedback on environmental and socioeconomic conditions? GECAFS-Southern Africa (SAF) Science Plan Three Overarching Questions

Local-level questions, researched in case-studies (e.g. districts) at the sub-regional level. Regional-level questions, to address issues relating to the region as a whole (top-down view of the region). Cross-level questions, which integrate output from case studies up to the regional level (bottom-up view of the region). Each Question addressed at three “levels”

Local-level Which aspects of local food systems (activities and outcomes) are currently most vulnerable to environmental stress and which stresses are most threatening? Regional-level Which aspects of GEC as manifesting at the regional-level are most important in relation to long-term development and food aid? Cross-level What are the trends in food availability, access and utilisation across the region? Example Questions for Food System Vulnerability (Q1)

Local-level What local-level technical, policy and institutional adaptation strategies will reduce food system vulnerability? Regional-level Which aspects of regional cooperation need to be improved (e.g. trade, infrastructure, strategic reserves, transboundary water management) to help reduce vulnerabilities of food systems? Cross-level How will interactions among regional-level and local-level food system adaptation strategies affect conditions and decision- making at local level? Example Questions for Food System Adaptation (Q2)

Local-level How would different adaptation strategies change local biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling and national greenhouse gas budgets? Regional-level How would improved regional cooperation aimed at reducing vulnerabilities of food systems affect international trade? Cross-level How would different adaptation strategies across the region help achieve SADC’s food security goal? Example Questions for Feedbacks (Q3)

 Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) Intra-regional policy networking Host organisation  International Council for Science-Regional Office for Africa (ICSU-ROA) Intra-regional science networking Inter-regional science networking GECAFS-SAF Strategic Collaborations

Science Agencies Development Agencies Policy Makers Resource Managers Natural Science Social Science e.g. NRF, ICSU-Africa improved GEC/food systems science e.g. CARE, FAO, DFID/IDRC improved livelihoods & reduced vulnerability e.g. farmers, range conservation NGOs improved food security & nat resource mgmt e.g. SADC, national ag & env ministries improved food security policies e.g. climate variability land degradation biodiversity loss e.g. vulnerability resource tenure social capital How can Southern African food systems be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to GEC? GECAFS Conceptual Research Plan GECAFS Southern Africa Science Plan/ FANRPAN ICSU-ROA / ESSP

1. ~ 5 Case Studies across the region, each addressing the food systems questions relating to GEC vulnerability and impacts, adaptation options and feedbacks. 2. Regional Scientific Networking, to link case study research with other relevant research in the region and internationally. 3. Science-Policy Interface, linking national researchers with policymakers, the private sector, civil society and representatives of regional food security programmes. GECAFS-SAF 5-year implementation

Improved understanding of how GEC will additionally affect food security across the region and among different socioeconomic groups Assessments of how adaptation strategies designed to cope with GEC and changing demands for food will affect the environment, societies and economies Enhanced regional research capacity in food security and environmental issues Strengthened regional policy formulation capacity for food security and environmental governance Policy recommendations for adaptation options Principal GECAFS-SAF outputs