Investing across Europe & Greece: Timing & Risk in an Uncertain Environment PRODEXPO 06 October, 2014 Dika Agapitidou MSc (Econ) MRICS

Real estate is a lagging economic indicator Direct real estate investment is expected to exceed an 100% increase for the year to December 2014 € 230 mn in 2012 € 410 mn in 2013 € 730 mn in 2014 (first 9 months) 2 Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014 Greece is back on the Investor Radar

Global -liquidity -low returns in most vehicles Local -twin surpluses – end of recession -real estate market bottoming out -bank system stabilization 3 Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014 Investment Drivers …

International -CEE competition (eg, Romania, Czech Republic, Poland) Local -lack of suitable product -taxation -bank unwillingness to write down assets 4 Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014 … and Obstacles

Commercial Real Estate Direct Investment > € 2.5 mn Hotel € 112 mn Industrial € 63,5 mn Office € 31,5 mn Leisure € 22 mn Total € 230 mn Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014

Commercial Real Estate Direct Investment > € 2.5 mn Retail € 143 mn Office € 130 mn Hotel € 80 mn DR (HRADF) € 40 mn Industrial € 16,5 mn Total € 410 mn (of which € 150 mn via HRADF) Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014

2014 (to September) 7 Commercial Real Estate Direct Investment > € 2.5 mn Hotel € 417 mn Office € 270 mn Industrial € 39 mn Retail € 3,3 mn Total € 730 mn (of which € 661 mn via HRADF) Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014

8 Old stock – lack of new developments Fragmented ownership, esp. in retail Unstable income, esp. in retail (turnover rents) Refurbishment costs, esp. in offices Changes in the value to loan ratio ? (70% in 2007 Q1 – 40% in 2013 Q4) Current & Short Term Challenges

Direct Investment -holiday homes -sustainable buildings – LEED & BREEAM certifications Indirect Investment -REICs -NPLs – distressed property 9 Prodexpo, 06 October, 2014 Opportunities

Thank you Dika Agapitidou MSc (Econ) MRICS Director Athens Economics/ JLL