1 State & County Characteristics: Overview The basics State –The general method –July 1, 2000 beginning population –Domestic migration IRS pre-processing State domestic migration –Race conversion (4 to 31) County –The general method –Domestic migration

2 State & County Characteristics: The Basics State and county population by ASRO –SYA (0 – 84, 85+) by sex, race (31 races), and Hispanic origin (Hispanic, non-Hispanic) Year-to-year approach to creating time series Processed in two separate steps –State characteristics –County characteristics

3 State Characteristics: The General Method 1.Calculate preliminary population estimates a.Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population* b.Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement c.Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration* 2.Calculate proportions 3.Use proportions to distribute estimates a.National ASRO b.State age-sex 4.Convert from 4 to 31 races* * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

4 State Characteristics: July 1, 2000 Beginning Population 1.Calculate preliminary population estimates a.Begin with GUSSIE base b.Convert from 31 to 4 races* c.Remove GQ population to get HH population 2.Calculate proportions 3.Use proportions to distribute previous July 1, 2000 HH estimates a.National ASRO b.State age-sex 4.Add GQ population to get resident population * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

5 State Characteristics: July 1, 2000 Beginning Population (cont.) Race conversion: 31 to 4 –Equi-proportional assignment of persons in multi-race categories to single-race categories (31 to 5 categories) –Combine Asian and Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander categories into Asian and Pacific Islander (5 to 4 categories)

6 State Characteristics: Domestic Migration - Overview 1.Pre-process IRS migration data* 2.State domestic migration* a.Calculate state out-migration b.Calculate state in-migration 3.County domestic migration* a.Recalculate interstate in- and out- migration b.Distribute interstate migration flows to counties c.Calculate intrastate migration rates & migrants d.Distribute intrastate migration totals to counties * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

7 State Characteristics: IRS Pre-processing - Overview 1.Obtain administrative record data 2.Match across administrative record sources 3.Assign characteristics to filer and exemptions 4.Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS codes 5.Define migration universe 6.Tally exemptions by demographic characteristics

8 State Characteristics: Obtain Administrative Record Data Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files –Address in 2002 (Y1) –Address in 2003 (Y2) –Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent Social Security Numident File –Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF) –File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

9 State Characteristics: Match Across Administrative Records Bureau committed to privacy and confidentiality –Convert SSN on tax records to Protected Identifier Key (PIK) Match Y1 and Y2 IRS files by filer’s PIK Match Y1-Y2 IRS file to PCF by filer’s PIK Convert filer’s return to individual records for filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions on the tax return

10 State Characteristics: Assign ASRO Assign ASRO for Y1-Y2 matched records that match to the PCF –Age Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category

11 State Characteristics: Assign ASRO (cont.) –Sex Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator –Race and Hispanic origin Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s race and Hispanic origin from PCF –Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 state and county FIPS codes

12 State Characteristics: Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS Codes Compare by equivalent geography Outcomes of comparison –Y1 only –Y2 only –Foreign in- and out-movers –Inter-state movers –County-to-county movers (intra-state) –Non-movers

13 State Characteristics: Define Migration Universe Exclude records: –where record appears only in Y1 or Y2 file –with a foreign address on either the Y1 or Y2 return –where Y1-Y2 IRS match does not match to PCF

14 State Characteristics: Tallying Exemptions Three different measures are calculated from exemption data –Inter-state migration rates –Intra-state migration rates –County migration shares Exemption data come with the following characteristics –Age 0-19, SYA 20-64, 65+ –Sex –Hispanic & non-Hispanic by 1990 race categories See handout

15 State Characteristics: Domestic Migration - Overview 1.State domestic out-migration* 2.State domestic in-migration* 3.State domestic migration flows* * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

16 State Characteristics: State Domestic Out-migration 1.Calculate a set of state out migration rates –Out-migration rate = tally #2 / tally #1 (see tally handout) –If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met 2.Expand to full ASRO distribution –Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole 3.Smooth the out-migration rates by age and perform final adjustment

17 State Characteristics: State Domestic In-migration 1.Calculate a set of state-to-state out- migration rates for each state –Out-migration rate = tally #3 / tally #1 (see tally handout) –If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

18 State Characteristics: State Domestic In-migration (cont.) 2.Calculate a preliminary set of state-specific out-migrants for each state by IRS characteristics –Out-migrants = Out-migration rate for origin- destination state pair * origin state population from previous vintage 3.Calculate preliminary state in-migrants –State in-migrants = Σ(state out migrants from each other state to destination state)

19 State Characteristics: State Domestic In-migration (cont.) 4.Sum all preliminary state in-migrant estimates 5.Calculate each state’s in-migration proportion of the all-state sum [#4] –State in-migration proportion = preliminary state in-migrants / Σ(preliminary state in-migrants) 6.Expand to full ASRO distribution –Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole 7.Smooth the in-migration proportions by age and perform final adjustment

20 State Characteristics: State Domestic Migration Flows Calculate final estimates of out- and in- migrants by state (in the process of estimating the population) –State out-migrants = state out-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval –State in-migrants = state in-proportion * ∑(state out-migrants)

21 State Characteristics: Race Conversion (4 to 31) Calculate conversion factors for 31 to 4 race conversion from the Census 2000 GUSSIE population Apply conversion factors to population in each 4-race category to get population in each 31-race category

22 State Characteristics: Summary 1.Calculate preliminary population estimates a.Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population b.Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement c.Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration 2.Calculate proportions 3.Use proportions to distribute estimates a.National ASRO b.State age-sex 4.Convert from 4 to 31 races