Bernd Hansjürgens, Frank Messner UFZ - Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle, Germany GLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne Integration in GLOWA Elbe

Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA) Regional actors, decision bodies Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change Global Change Management level Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Management- options Impact- analysis Evaluation Project IV: Surface Water Quality Nutrient entry Cost-efficiency analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project III: Surface Water Availability Run off regulation Multi-criteria analysis Eco- hydrological Indicators Socio- economic Indicators Project advisory board Focus of presentation

Introduction: Integration needs GLOWA Elbe strives at giving scientific support for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in the Elbe River Basin, considering explicitly the potential impacts of global change. The key element of IWRM is integration ! Integration needs

Integration needs: structure of the presentation The key element of IWRM is integration In this context different forms of integration are needed:  Transdisciplinary integration of stakeholders and expert knowledge  Integration of water policy fields: water quantity, water quality,floods  Integration of disciplines: finding links between natural and social sciences – building up model systems  Integration of results:support decision making in river basin management Need for a framework of an overall integrative approach Integration needs

GLOWA II focuses on these five forms of integration: 1. The Integrative Methodological Approach (IMA) – the overall framework for integration in GLOWA Elbe 2. The integration of stakeholders and expert knowledge – transdisciplinary integration 3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields 4. Integration of disciplines – model integration 5. Integration of results for decision support

1. IMA – the overall framework of integration Integrative Methodological Approach of GLOWA Elbe (IMA) 1 Scenarios (A) Frame of development (B) Management alternatives Problems, conflicts, needs & targets 4 Evaluation: Multi-criteria analysis, Cost-benefit analysis & Cost-effectiveness analysis Participation Public Policy Agents Agencies NGOs others 3 Impact analysis 2 Indicators & criteria yes no Stakeholder acceptance Decision processes Further exploration A) External boundary conditions e.g., Climate Change and socioeconomic SRES B2 (Regionalisation) Climate Change and socioeconomic SRES A1 (Liberalisation) No climate change and …. B) Policy options e.g., Introducing fertiliser charges Changing priorities of water distribution transferring water from other basins...

1. Implementation of IMA in research phases assessment functions/ approaches indicators model results status quo with climate change Phases B. Status-Quo with climate change C. Analysis of global change (GC) D. Analysis of GC and adjustment A. Status-Quo Analysis preliminary measures and strategies climate scenarios scenarios of socio-ec. global change final policy measures model results status quo model results global change scenarios conflict potentials model results developmental scenarios policy advice global change scenarios: building up climate and socio-ec. models political measures: conflict analyses, identification of options and measures hydrological modeling for different conflict areas (building models, validation, modeling scenarios) Identification of indicators and criteria finding proper assess- ment approaches, mono- and mulitcriteria assessment of scenarios 1. Scenario derivation 4. Assessment 3. Impact analysis2. Indicators Research- Steps framework of development ( global change scenarios) developmental scenarios assessment of global change scenarios assessment of developmental scenarios criteria

Transdisciplinary integration has two meanings in the literature: a)problem-oriented research with all important scientific disciplines involved – trying to find appropriate approaches based on a mix or a synthesis of disciplinary approaches b)involvement of decision makers, stakeholders and experts in order to transfer scientific results directly into society 2. Transdisciplinary integration

problem analysis framework of development impact analysis stakeholder meeting (June 2002) stakeholder analysis Identifying first management strategies GLOWA Elbe scenarios Identifying coherent regional global change scenarios in an interdisciplinary team, e.g.: Understanding actor relations and including expert and local knowledge a) analysis of global change b) analysis of institutional setting climate change demographic change energy production Example: Derivation of Scenarios in GLOWA Elbe I 2. Transdisciplinary integration

3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields water quality problemswater quantity problems floods GLOWA Elbe I Hot spot Unstrut Selected impacts Elbe Water quantity problems Spree/Havel (induced by mining) not considered

water quality problemswater quantity problems floods GLOWA Elbe II Climate impacts EU Policy impacts Elbe Water quantity Elbe emerging hot spots providing basic data for: VERIS (BMBF) (close co-operation) 3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields

water quality problemswater quantity problems floods GLOWA Elbe II Climate impacts EU Policy impacts Elbe Water quantity Elbe emerging hot spots co-operation with VERIS (BMBF) Science for Integrated Water Resources Management also requires: Analysis of policy objective trade-offs 3. Integrated analysis of related water policy fields combined analysis of water quantity regulation and water quality problems combined analysis of water quantity regulation and flood protection

economic assessment economic water demand (frame of development) Energy & Mining: KaSIM Households & small trade: HAUSHALT WASSER Agriculture: RAUMIS / MODAM Industry: INDUSTRIE WASSER Rationale of integrating natural and social science modelling 4. Integration of disciplines – model integration water provision  Water BALance MOdel (WBALMO) Elbe identification of interface (transfer functions) econ. evalu- ation algorithms economic assessment of scenarios

Global Change Model System of GLOWA Elbe

economic assessment econ. evalu- ation algorithms economic assessment of scenarios water provision identification of interface (transfer functions)  economic water demand (frame of development) Energy & Mining: KaSIM Households & small trade: HAUSHALT WASSER Agriculture: RAUMIS / MODAM Industry: INDUSTRIE WASSER Water BALance MOdel (WBALMO) Elbe Rationale of integrating natural and social science modelling (example water quantity analysis) 4. Integration of disciplines – model integration

Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluation Typical WBALMO result: Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region) Typical economic benefit function for an enterprise: Profits = Turnover – Cost ? There is no direct link between these two concepts ! Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: … the vulnerability of water users to lacking water availability)

Typical WBALMO result: Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region) Example tourism at mining lakes: Starting period of touristic use water treatment costs Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluation Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of economic benefits to lacking water availability) Typical economic benefit function for an enterprise: Profits = Turnover – Cost

Typical WBALMO result: Average yearly fulfilment of demand for different scenarios (in %, here: for industry in Upper Spree region) Needed: transfer functions to clarify the contribution of water availability to economic benefits (or: the vulnerability of economic benefits to lacking water availability) Example fish farming: area of ponds minimum water level of ponds (equals 77% of demand) Finding the missing link between water balance modelling and economic evaluation Based on this knowledge, transfer and benefit functions can be integrated in WBALMO ! Typical economic benefit function for an enterprise: Profits = Turnover – Cost vulnerability

Two water management strategies with constant climate + including climate change + including socio- economic change (subsidy cuts, liberalisation) Average profits of fish farming, (in mio. Euro of 2003, 2% discount) This means: fish farming is threatened by significant profit reductions - mainly caused by socio-economic and climate change !!! Results for fish farming (GLOWA Elbe I)

Strategien Nettonutzen Binnenfischerei RangRang Nettonutzen Wasser- bereitstellung RangRang Netto-nutzen Wasserqualität RangRang Nettonutzen Nachnutzungs-tourismus Rang Rang Wasserverfügbarkeit Industrie [%] Ra ng ökologische Mindestabflüsse [%] R an g Spreewald [m³/s] Rang Rang Berlin [m³/s] RangRang Basis ,4396,9312,1318,34 Flutung-3,73513,622-0,61513,35181,3598,0112,4218,63 RedFl-0,04441,531-0,0242,78386,4396,9312,0518,25 OderBB0,171< -1,0750,9213,21287,0197,1212,5118,72 OderBln0,092< 0,7430,3020,06486,6296,9312,1318,91 GLOWA I example: Results for pilot project Spree Basis Flutung RedFl OderBln OderBB There are good arguments for almost all alternative strategies, decision depends on weighting of results for individual criteria economic criteria (€ net benefit) water management criteria 5. Integration of results GLOWA Elbe II: Completion of results Inclusion of quality-quantity aspects Ranking of strategies Application of participatory MCA tools  Decision support for policy process GLOWA Elbe II: Extension of analysis Inclusion of Elbe Basin aspects 

Scientific support for IWRM requires multi-faceted forms of integration The IMA approach of GLOWA Elbe offers a framework to achieve this challenging task Important methodological tools and results emerge from this research (inclusion of economic analysis in water policy: Water Framework Directive) 6. Conclusions

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