IF-UTAMA1 Simulation Sesi 12 Dosen Pembina: Danang Junaedi

IF-UTAMA2  In DSS, simulation refers to a technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a model of a management system.  Major Characteristics of Simulation –Simulation imitates reality and capture its richness –Simulation is a technique for conducting experiments It can describe and/or predict the characteristics of a given system under different circumstances. –Simulation is a descriptive not normative tool –Simulation is often used to solve very complex, risky problems Simulation

IF-UTAMA3 What is Simulation

IF-UTAMA4 Problem:  Siemens Solar Industries (SSI), the world’s largest maker of solar electric products, suffered continuous problems in poor material flow, unbalanced resource use, bottlenecks in throughput & schedule delays. Solution:  SSI built a cleanroom contamination-control technology.  The simulation provided a virtual laboratory for engineers to experiment with various configurations before the physical systems were constructed. Results:  SSI improved their manufacturing process significantly.  The cleanroom facility saved SSI over $75 million/ year. Case : Simulation Saves Siemens Millions

IF-UTAMA5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation Slow and costly construction process Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to solve other problems So easy to sell to managers, may miss analytical solutions Software is not so user friendly

IF-UTAMA6 Set up a model of a real system and conduct repetitive experiments 1. Problem Definition 2. Construction of the Simulation Model 3. Testing and Validating the Model 4. Design of the Experiments 5. Conducting the Experiments 6. Evaluating the Results 7. Implementation Simulation Methodology

IF-UTAMA7 Probabilistic Simulation –Discrete distributions : systems monitor the systems each time a change in its state takes place –Continuous distributions : system monitor changes in a state of system at descret points in time –Probabilistic simulation via Monte Carlo technique –Time Dependent versus Time Independent Simulation –Simulation Software –Visual Simulation –Object-oriented Simulation Simulation Types

IF-UTAMA8 Simulation Development

IF-UTAMA9 Some Applications of Simulation

IF-UTAMA10 Visual Spreadsheets User can visualize models and formulas with influence diagrams Not cells--symbolic elements

IF-UTAMA11 Visual Interactive Modeling (VIM) and Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) Visual interactive modeling (VIM) Also called –Visual interactive problem solving –Visual interactive modeling –Visual interactive simulation Use computer graphics to present the impact of different management decisions. Can integrate with GIS Users perform sensitivity analysis Static or a dynamic (animation) systems

IF-UTAMA12 Generated Image of Traffic at an Intersection from the Orca Visual Simulation Environment (Courtesy Orca Computer, Inc.)

IF-UTAMA13 Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) Decision makers interact with the simulated model and watch the results over time Visual interactive models and DSS –Queueing

IF-UTAMA14 Monte Carlo Simulation

IF-UTAMA15 Monte Carlo Technique

IF-UTAMA16 Step 1. Probability Distribution

IF-UTAMA17 Step 2. Building a Cumulative Probability Distribution

IF-UTAMA18 Step 3. Setting Random Number Interval

IF-UTAMA19 Step 4. Generating Random Numbers

IF-UTAMA20 Step 5. Simulating the Experience

IF-UTAMA21

IF-UTAMA22 Simulation of Queuing Problem

IF-UTAMA23 Queuing Problem

IF-UTAMA24 Dist 1. Interval Arrival Times Dist 2. Unloading Times

IF-UTAMA25 Example

IF-UTAMA26 Example-contd : Some Simple Statistic

IF-UTAMA27 Simulation and Inventory Analysis The Basic Model

IF-UTAMA28 Referensi 1.Dr. Mourad YKHLEF,2009,Decision Support System-Simulation, King Saud University 2.Richard K. Min.2002.Information Systems for Management. OUR LADY OF THE LAKE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 3.Insoo Hwang.-. Modeling and Analysis. Department of MIS, Jeonju university 4.Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems 6th edition. Prentice Hall