ClimDev-Africa Dinner Dialogue Science for development: Can Africa Sustain its Transformational Development Without Investing in Climate Science?

Outline Climate Science – Situation – Objectives & experience of pilot projects of ClimDev- Africa/ACPC – Advancing knowledge and research priorities for users The Dinner Dialogue Questions Discussions

Climate Impacts Loss in production, infrastructure, and increased poverty MADAGASCAR: In Feb 2012 Cyclone Giovanna killed 10 people MOZAMBIQUE Flood 40 people died, 150,000 people fled in Chokwe town, and surroundings (Jan 2013) SOUTH AFRICA: 6 died when the Limpopo river burst its banks (Jan 2013)

Climate Science Situation Meteorological & hydrological data are basis for knowledge, decision making & actions Application fields include DRR, water management, agriculture, aviation, transport, risk management, etc Data Observations, climate models, time series, trends, projections, event frequency, …. Information Measures of vulnerability and risk, impacts, uncertainty and confidence, variations, … Knowledge Understanding consequences, evaluating responses, informing decision making, … Decision Strategic, policy, investment, new research avenues, response frameworks, … Delivery of science Societal and developmental needs Focus

There are about 1152 meteorological stations in Africa (GTS) It is 8 times lower than WMO recommendations Most of the stations are confined along the roads, cities or airports Satellite information is widely used for weather and climate monitoring activities Climate Science- Data Situation African climate stations network Air quality or greenhouse gases monitoring stations in Africa

Climate Science- Prediction Situation Predictions and related data and information – Most of the prediction information comes from the developed country prediction center (ECMWF, NCEP,..) – Satellite information is quite useful in real time data monitoring and early warning activities Modeling in Africa is at infant stage – Lack of trained man power – Lack of computing facilities

Climate Research Gaps in Africa-Situation Knowledge Gap in Climate Science – Scientific research is very weak at all levels (NMHS, RCC, Universities) – Chronic lack of investment in postgraduate education and research infrastructure – Less priority is given to climate issues relative to other pressing problems The comparison of African Authors with others (data from Washington et al)

Poor network of first class met stations Existing synoptic stations should be fully operational Absence of upper-air stations Water flow measurement technology is not up-to-date including collection and recording Current data transmission is by mail. There is a need to automate the using real time data collection platform such as SMS, GMS, and GPRS needed. Database servers have capacity limitation. Should be maintained by qualified information technology personnel. ACPC Pilot Projects- Needs Assessment Ethiopia, Rwanda and The Gambia

3. Project Interventions Rescue meteorological data Procure and establish upper air observing station, automatic weather stations, barometers, water level recorders with telemetry, facilities, etc Establish early warning system for selected River basin and enhance flood forecasting capacity at the Ministries Provide training on hydro-meteorological instrumentation, data base management and information communication Establish information systems to provide real time climate and river flow information to decision makers and a database management system Establish a map room to provide information on the water resources for the general public and a wide area network (WAN) between central and regional offices

Other Examples of Science to Use Addressing the Climate Vulnerability of African Infrastructure Estimate the impacts of CC on the performance of infrastructure Develop and test a framework for the planning and design of infrastructure investment that can be “robust” under a wide range of climate outcomes; Enhance “investment readiness” of African countries to use climate finance resources geared at increasing their resilience to climate variability and change Irrigation, HP, Power Pools, Urban Water & Roads West Africa TB Aquifers Dialogue Analysis on scientific and technical knowledge major environmental, social and economic challenges for GW: CC, WS, Irrigation Institutional, legal and political framework for the basins A dialogue on national and transboundary priorities Building and strengthening of capacities Nile Congo Zambezi Niger Orange Volta Senegal

Africa Climate Conference - ACC 2013 Process: Mapping African climate researchers and institutions, established scientific steering committee 300+ of world’s best Africa climate researchers facing users Task: Identify priorities to advance frontiers of African climate research to address urgent societal needs, based on: State of knowledge Current Gaps Concrete Proposals to overcome knowledge gaps and deliver operational climate services Over 700 abstracts received on call for papers Africa-wide ACC2013 Steering Committee

Africa Climate Research For Development Agenda 3. Scientific and Institutional Capacity Development Scientific Steering Committee 1. Co-designed multi-disciplinary climate research 1. Co-designed multi-disciplinary climate research 2. Improved Observation System and Delivery 4. Mainstreaming Cimate Services and User Intreface Platform Coordination Platform

Understanding underpinning drivers of climate variability in Africa Towards Robust Climate change projections over Africa Integrated climate and impacts research (across four priority GFCS sectors- DRR sector, health, water and agriculture) Africa Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project Multi-disciplinary validation of forecast skill (including impacts skill) 1. Co-designed multi-disciplinary research for improving climate forecast skill and reliability, across temporal and spatial scales (towards operational user- relevant seamless forecast products) Proposed pan-African Research Programs to address User-Driven Priorities for Climate Research in Africa

3. Scientific and Institutional Capacity Development 2. Improved Observation System and Delivery 4. Mainstreaming Cimate Services and User Intreface Platform Building African Capacity in Climate Science & Communication for Linking Climate Knowledge with Action Nurturing African intellectual leadership in Climate Research for Development African research nodes of excellence Mainstreaming training curricula for a changing climate From Global to Local: Linkages across prediction centers for delivery of operational climate services Filling the Data Gap- Multidisciplinary data sets (for both climate and sector- specific vulnerability datasets) Integrated Africa Climate Data Information Systems Future Risk Profiles for Major African Cities Framework for Co-producing Climate Services and Integrating Knowledge for Action Building the Interface: Multi- Stakeholder Platforms for Dialogue Co-producing climate knowledge with local stakeholders – the End of End-users Supporting Adaptation under deep uncertainty- adaptation scenarios addressing envelope of uncertainty, across timescales Proposed pan-African Research Programs to Address User-Driven Priorities for Climate Research in Africa

Thank you The ACPC Climate Change Meets Policy ClimDev-Africa

The Dialogue Questions 1.How do we strengthen the capacities of the National Hydrological and Meteorological Services to enhance delivery of climate services? – Delivery and utility of data and information for researchers, policy makers, farmers, and others 2.How can we influence the discourse on climate change finance in order to leverage resources for climate science, data and information needs? – Sources of finance, access, and investment for climate science 3.How do we enhance partnerships across institutions in integrating climate services for development as part of their long term strategy? – Institutional collaboration in data generation, planning and end use 4.What role can ClimDev-Africa play in popularizing the climate science narrative in Africa? – Key recommendations for ClimDev-Africa to enhance climate science delivery