Presentation Prepared for: Washington Association of Money Managers Washington, D.C., December 3, 2003 2004 Economic Outlook: Growth, the Awe of Productivity,

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Presentation transcript:

Presentation Prepared for: Washington Association of Money Managers Washington, D.C., December 3, Economic Outlook: Growth, the Awe of Productivity, and Social Change Presented by: Kathleen Camilli Camilli Economics

Nominal GDP Real GDP Corp. Profits GDP Deflator CPI Fed Funds 10-yr note Q3’ % 8.2% +11.8% 1.9% 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% Q4’03 7.4% 5.5% +10.0% 1.9% 2.3% 1.0% 4.5% Q1’04 6.0% 4.1% +9.0% 1.9% 2.4% 1.5% 5.5% Q2’04 6.9% 5.0% +7.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.0% 5.0% Q3’04 6.3% 4.4% +8.0% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 4.5% Q4’04 6.4% 4.5% +9.0% 1.9% 2.3% 3.0% 4.5% % 4.6% +8.1% 1.9% 2.3% 1.1% 4.0% % 4.5% +8.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 4.9% 2003 U.S. Economic Outlook

Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % Gross Domestic Product % Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.1996$ Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics11/19/

Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % All Employees: Total Nonfarm Difference - Period to Period SA, Thous Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics11/19/

Nonfarm Business Sector: Output Per Hour/All Persons % Change - Annual Rate SA, 1992=100 Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics11/19/

Unemployment Rate: Private Wage and Sal Wkrs: Information Industry NSA, % All Employees: Information Difference - Period to Period SA, Thous Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics11/19/

Unemployment Rate: Private Wage and Sal Wkrs: Manufacturing Industry NSA, % All Employees: Manufacturing Difference - Period to Period SA, Thous Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics11/19/

Fixed Private Nonresidential Investment % Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.1996$ Nonresidential Equipment & Software % Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.1996$ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics11/19/

Housing Starts SAAR, Thous.Units Contract Rates on Commitments: Conventional 30-Yr Mortgages, FHLMC % Sources: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics11/19/

Resident Population: Years Thous Housing Starts SAAR, Thous.Units Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics11/19/

Total U.S. Patent Applications excl Reissues Units Resident Population: Years Thous Sources: U.S. Patent & Trademark Office, Census Bureau /Haver Analytics11/19/

Foreign Exchange Rate: People's Republic of China Yuan/US$ Trade Balance: China (Mainland): Customs Value NSA, Mil.$ Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Census Bureau /Haver Analytics11/19/

BOP: Balance on Current Account SA, Mil.$ Nominal Trade-Weighted Exch Value of US$ vs Major Currencies MAR 73= Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics11/19/

Cash Price: Gold, Handy and Harman Base Price $/troy Oz Nominal Trade-Weighted Exch Value of US$ vs Major Currencies MAR 73= Sources: Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics11/19/

JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index: All Items 1996=100 Cash Price: Gold, Handy and Harman Base Price $/troy Oz Sources: JOC-ECRI, Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics11/19/

Cash Price: Gold, Handy and Harman Base Price $/troy Oz 10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity % p.a Sources: Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics11/19/

10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity % p.a. PCE: Chain Price Index % Change - Year to Year SA, 1996= Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics11/19/

Thank You 2004 Economic Outlook: Growth, the Awe of Productivity, and Social Change Presented by: Kathleen Camilli Camilli Economics