Climate Forecasting Unit Melanie Davis (IC3) & Jean-Pierre Ceron (Meteo France) EUPORIAS WP41 Climate Information and Decision Making Starts: M25 (November 2014) Ends: M43 (May 2016) EUPORIAS General Assembly, Toulouse, 21 st October 2014

Climate Forecasting Unit Tasks Information input from WP12 stakeholder interviews and RT2 climate forecasts and case studies T4.1.1 (All): 5% time Choose a decision making chain and its relevant economic model(s) and knowledge system. Understand the risks (climate and non climate) of the decision processes identified. T4.1.2 (All): 5% time Assess impacts and risk management strategies throughout the DMPs over S2D timescales. LEADING TO... T4.1.3 (All) : 20% time - Define a methodology to evaluate the DMPs that are affected by climate. T4.1.4 (All): 40% time - Evaluate the relative weight of climate information in the relevant DMP. LEADING TO... T4.1.5 (UNIVLEEDS, IC3, MF, WHO Euro, and WFP): 15% time Define standardised protocol(s) for evaluating DMP T4.1.6 (DWD, MF, WHO Euro, and WFP): 15% time Review the WMO Regional Climate Centre-network information and its relevance to the DMP: Information input from WP 1.1, Task

Climate Forecasting Unit Value of Climate Services – quantitative: cost/benefit analysis Impact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative. Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions – qualitative. Redefine Climate Information Assessment of the provided information on the decision making process Towards New Business Opportunities (WP45) Downstream, Operational Decision Support Systems.

Climate Forecasting Unit Value of Climate Services – quantitative cost/benefit analysis Impact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process. Extract value of low skill forecasts ECMWF's Weather Roulette Intuitive diagnostics for communicating the skill of probabilistic forecasts.. Effective interest rate of forecast v climatology

Climate Forecasting Unit Value of Climate Services – quantitative cost/benefit analysis Impact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative. Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions. - Risk of not acting: if high, would you act regardless of the forecast? - Use of a probabilistic forecast/interpretation of uncertainty - Test using a “Placebo”?

Climate Forecasting Unit Value of Climate Services – quantitative cost/benefit analysis Impact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative. Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions – qualitative. Redefine Climate Information Assessment of the provided information on the decision making process - Data needs and its communications (risk alongside uncertainty) - Visualisation techniques → Standardisation? Strategy/protocol for providing information?

Climate Forecasting Unit Value of Climate Services – quantitative: cost/benefit analysis Impact of s2d probabilistic forecasts on the decision making process – quantitative. Role of Climate Services – qualitative: the human dimension Effect of Climate Services on stakeholders decisions – qualitative. Redefine Climate Information Assessment of the provided information on the decision making process Towards New Business Opportunities (WP45) Downstream, Operational Decision Support Systems. Options? What would this look like? How would it work? (link to prototype)

Climate Forecasting Unit Deliverables and Milestones D4.1.1 and D4.1.2 Report on the evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative value of DMP. M4.1.1 Review of (climate and non climate) management scenarios and strategies M4.1.2 : Assessment of the qualitative and quantitative value of the DMPs D4.1.3 Report on the impact of and risk related to climate forecasts developed in RT2 on DMPs, for case studies and DSS’s selected within Case Studies. M4.1.3 : Assessment of the impact of and risk related to climate information on the DMPs and DSSs. D4.1.4 Review of the climate information products of the WMO RA VI RCC-network useful to the decision makers D4.1.5 Publication of paper(s) on the evaluation, skill and values of the decision making chains

Climate Forecasting Unit

. Wind Resource Consultancy for Seasonal Climate Variability Using probability forecast of the most likely wind power tercile (above normal, normal, below normal, %) Fabian Lienert, Climate Forecasting Unit, IC3

Climate Forecasting Unit.. Halcrow Water, UK Environment Agency. Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in Flood Incident Management.