Impact of agricultural drought on Food Security of India RESHMITA NATH Prof. Chen Wen (IAP) Dr. Xuefeng Cui (BNU) Impact of agricultural drought on food security of India International Workshop on High Impact Weather Research Ningbo, China, January 2015

120 MHa CI (42% land irrigable) Yield Import (2%) Cereals Milk, Fruits 0.5 BT 0.49 BT 900 m 2 / cap INDIA World Bank data 1.2 B 0.6 B Land required for food (LRF) Amount of agricultural land required to ensure the total food demand of a country Socio-economic & agricultural Policy background of India Policy objectives Policy Environment Large population of poor farmers Cf= conversion factor. CI= cropping intensity = total area harvested/ total arable land and permanent crops FAO, India database Natural disaster like agricultural drought & food security

Linear trend in LRF Moderate Severe % area affected or 26-50% rainfall deficiency: Moderate > 40 % area affected or >50% rainfall deficiency : Severe

Climatology of agricultural and meteorological drought indices Climatology, SPEI (JJAS), Climatology, VHI (JJAS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index: NDVI = (Ch 2 – Ch 1 /Ch 2 +Ch 1 ) Vegetation condition Index: VCI = (NDVI max – NDVI/NDVI max – NDVI min ) Temperature condition Index: TCI = (BT max – BT/BT max – BT min ) VCI and TCI characterize by varying moisture and thermal conditions of vegetation, Vegetation Health Index : VHI = 0.5 (VCI) (TCI) Standardized Potential Evapo-transpiration index (SPEI): SPEI= Precip-PET, SPEI< 0, indicates shortage of water (Kogan, 2002) VHI Extreme (<10) Severe (<20) Moderate (<30) Mild (<40) No drought (>40) NOAA AVHRR, weekly data Global SPEI database National Sample Survey Organization, India

Vulnerability Map for Agricultural and Meteorological Drought over India Percentage of occurrence of drought (VHI<40)

National Sample Survey Organization, India Irrigation Statistics 0-20% 20-40% 40-60% > 60% Indian Planning Commission, March 2009

Desert Development Prog. Trend in Cereal production and yield in India: Role of govt. policies and schemes Drought prone area prog. IWDP NAIS NHM NADP, NMMI, NFSM, WBCIS IWMP NFSB

10-20% 20-30% >30 % Deficiency in Precipitation Deficiency (%) in production of Rice and Wheat Case studies of 6 droughts 1982, 2000, , 2002, %

Decadal changes in drought characteristics in India (Kogan, 2002) VHI Extreme (0-10) Severe (10-20) Moderate (20-30) VHI < 30 D1 D2D3

Rainfall D2-D1 D3-D2 Rice & Wheat production Decrease in production Increase in production

Conclusion 1.Mainly extreme North Western and Eastern – North eastern parts of India are affected severely by drought and its affect to food security of the entire country. 2. Up to 2002 there is no long term policy for drought management. After 2002 Government has taken several policies and schemes to control the food security and encourage irrigation. After 2002 agricultural production, yield has increased significantly and the effect of drought has been mitigated to a greater extent. 5.Another problem arises due to excessive irrigation is ground water depletion. Govt. has taken the policies like watershed development, rain water harvesting, organic farming etc to mitigate these ecosystem loses. 6. The characteristics of vegetation pattern and agricultural drought over India has changed significantly from the earlier decade to the present. The frequency and spatial extent of drought has decreased from D1 to D3. particularly the vegetation of North western and central part has improved. 7. These changes in drought characteristics are mainly influenced by the increase in rainfall over Indian subcontinent due to the influence of ENSO and IOD. Which have strong positive impact on crop production in India.

Percentage in Irrigated Land 0-20% 20-40% 40-60% > 60%

Government Policies and schemes Short term Long term Government Policy for disaster management NFSB (2011) NAIS ( ) NHM ( ) NADP ( ) NFSM ( ) NMMI ( ) WBCIS ( ) Monitoring Declaration ResponsePrevention Mitigat ion Prepar edness Drought Management Minimum support prices Input subsidies Regulated market Strategic import export control Food subsidies for consumers CreditPower Irrigation Seed Fertilizer