CCFP and CAWS WET Date: Spring 2015

Overview Operational Bridging Concept Evolution of CCFP Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement Timeline of Implementation Summary

Operational Bridging Concept Focus weather forecast collaboration resources on events that impact the NAS Take advantage of a blend of newer, higher resolution computerized weather forecast models Issue critical weather forecast information at the optimal time, even if it is between the usual 2-hour update cycle

Operational Bridging Concept Collaborative Convective Forecast Product transitioned to the CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance Nov 2014 – CCFP “look and feel,” forecast issuance frequency, and full-CONUS coverage remained unchanged – Schedule improved to issuance New product: Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) starting Mar 2015 – Event-driven – timed and focused on areas of potential air traffic impact (enroute and/or terminal) – More timely forecast and flexible format than 2-hourly CCFP – National Weather Service and Industry meteorologists will collaborate on CAWS 24-7 unlike limited CCFP collaboration in the past

Allow decision makers to more effectively manage Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI’s) Convective forecast planning guidance to support Strategic Planning Telcon Timely delivery of high- confidence, high-relevance aviation weather constraint forecasts Enable more efficient use of available airspace FAA Statement of Need sent to the National Weather Service 5

Enhanced avenue for collaboration A solution to support more timely and effective ATM decisions Opportunity to exercise key NextGen concepts in the National Airspace System User Advocacy 6

Operational Bridging & TFM Decisions Starting Mar 2015 the CCFP supplemented by the CAWS will be the primary weather products utilized by Command Center to develop the Operational Plan “Both the scheduled (CCFP) and event-driven (CAWS) products will be considered the primary source of weather for TFM decisions with the event-driven product taking precedence over the scheduled product if there are differences.” - NextGen Aviation Weather Division ANG- C6

Product History Operational Bridging (OB) was developed by the CDM community Currently NWS National Aviation Meteorologists at the Command Center bridge the gap between meteorological information and traffic flow management After 2 years of limited assessment of Aviation Weather Statement (AWS) in the Northeastern US, the concept was well received by the CDM community Beginning Mar 2015 the CAWS concept has been formalized and training materials created to support refining CAWS requirements 8

Previous AWS Example 9

New CCFP Started 1 Nov 2014 Uses a blend of state of the art computer models to draw polygons similar to forecaster drawn polygons Does not depict legacy CCFP “purple lines” Issued year round 2, 4, 6, 8 hour forecast on web; 4, 6, 8 hour forecast on TFMS/TSD Issued every 2 hours at bottom of hour prior to SPT – TFMS/TSD timing fix expected Apr-May 2015 Will be refined over time as models improve, verification is provided and user feedback is received

New CCFP Model Inputs Three time-lagged High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) solutions One HIRES-ARW (High Resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting) solution Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) mean convection precipitation NOTE: Designed to be weighted toward CoSPA solution (based on HRRR)

New CCFP Example

CCFP to TMI CCFPTMI Strategic 8+ hours Tactical Operation Bridging & CAWS

New CCFP: Where to find it? Replaced human-drawn CCFP on TFMS on 1 Nov 2014 TFMS/TSD displays 4, 6, 8 hour forecast Available on AWC Website: Website displays 2, 4, 6, 8 hour forecast Available 24-7 now - including winter months (Nov-Feb)

NEW - What is a CAWS? Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) Event driven (non-scheduled) advisory for US CONUS airspace beginning 3 Mar 2015 Contains both a text discussion and graphical picture of impacted region Issuance: event driven with as much lead time as possible Issued for Thunderstorms CAWS & CCFP together will be used by TFM to support TMI decision making strategies

CAWS Stakeholders Stakeholders – Command Center – Operators – NWS Any approved user can initiate a CAWS discussion Each CDM participant is responsible for designating and maintaining Approved user lists Observer or Collaborator permissions for NWSChat AWC OB Meteorologists will issue preliminary and final product

CAWS Weather Forecast Collaboration NWSChat (password protected) will be a web-based platform for CAWS continuous collaboration Only authorized users may participate in the CAWS chat AWC, Operators, NAMs, Center Weather Service Units(CWSU) and others will collaborate on CAWS before issuance AWC Maintains “51% vote”

CAWS Chat Collaboration With Previous CCFP Chat: AWC issued Preliminary > Collaboration -> 15 min of Adjustments > Final Issued With New CAWS Chat: Continuous Collaboration & Meteorological Reasoning > Preliminary Issued > 5 min Check > Final Issued CAWS Collaboration focused on meteorological reasoning that supports CAWS production Agreement on a need for CAWS is required prior to Preliminary Issuance 5 min Check above allows collaborators to ensure CAWS reflects collaboration

When To Issue a CAWS? When CAWS confidence and probabilities are met (details follow) To help add more weather details to an Area of Concern – Onset of Impact To assist planners with TMI’s – Cessation of Impact To assist in canceling TMI’s or increase rates – Evolution of convection Are there gaps in storms and how will it change over time – Disagreement with other guidance Observations and expected forecast not resembling current guidance especially with new CCFP – Enhance confidence in forecast Current forecasts are expected to verify This will provide higher confidence in TMI decisions of planners and others Goal is to issue CAWS as soon as possible to assist in decision making – 4 hour lead time is the target for Thunderstorm Activity

CAWS - Areas of Concern High demand enroute traffic flows, including major airways and offshore routes Continental U.S. (CONUS) Core 29 airports and their terminal operations Critical airspace near or adjacent to Special Use Airspace (SUA) such as military restricted and warning areas Terminal/En-route areas that do not fit the criteria above but are expected to be materially impacted by special events, VIP movement, or runway/equipment outages

CAWS Issuance Probability and Confidence Thunderstorm activity affecting an area of concern is considered to be Probable (60-80% probability with high confidence) or Expected (>80% probability with high confidence) Thunderstorm activity that was anticipated to impact an area of concern is now considered to be neither Probable nor Expected There are differing (probability of occurrence, timing, coverage, severity) forecasts of thunderstorm activity affecting an area of concern, and the conflicts need to be resolved Cessation of thunderstorm activity impacting an area of concern is Probable or Expected one or more hours earlier than forecast

CAWS – Words of Estimative Probability (WEP) Expect, Expected: Probability > 80% with high confidence Probably, Probable: Probability % with high confidence NOTE: Only one of the above at a time will be referenced in a CAWS NOTE: CAWS issued only in periods of high confidence

CAWS – Issuance Types CAWS – Issued for first time, or update to previously issued CAWS Corrected CAWS – Issued to modify or correct a CAWS (will reference previous CAWS # in the text) Cancelled CAWS – Issued to cancel a CAWS prior to scheduled expiration (will reference previous CAWS # in the text)

CAWS Text Discussion Format Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement nnn NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO hhmm UTC day dd mmm yyyy [Optional: Correction or Cancellation of CAWS nnn] Weather: Thunderstorms Valid: hhmm-hhmm UTC ARTCCs affected: ABC Terminals affected: XYZ SUMMARY A short 1-3 line high level text explaining why the CAWS has been issued DISCUSSION Detailed aviation weather information specifically related to air traffic constraints. This section should answer the “who, what, where, when, and why?” questions.

CAWS Text Example Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001 NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO 1345 UTC Wed 03 Aug 2014 Weather: Thunderstorms Valid: Z ARTCCs affected: ZJX, ZMA Terminals affected: MCO, TPA SUMMARY: Thunderstorms along the W coast of FL are expected to move inland and become numerous throughout the central FL peninsula during the early afternoon hours. DISCUSSION: Scattered thunderstorms primarily overwater along the W coast of FL are expected to move inland and increase to numerous across the center of the FL peninsula through the early afternoon, more quickly and with greater coverage than shown by CCFP. Thunderstorm tops will reach FL450. Terminal impact at TPA probable after 1600Z but ending no later than 1730Z. Terminal impact at MCO probable after 1730Z. Expect another CAWS covering FL thunderstorms to be issued after 1600Z.

CAWS Graphical Format NOTE: 1)Solid Blue outline = current weather 2)Dash-dot Red outline = forecast weather

How will a CAWS be Disseminated? Posted on the Aviation Weather Center website: NWS Telecommunications Gateway Command Center will issue an advisory when CAWS is issued Command Center planner will reference active CAWS during SPT

Scenario- 21 Aug Z Possible Chicago terminal impacts in the next 2-4 hours. Isol TS to NW of ORD +SHRA CCFP Issued 17Z valid 21Z CCFP Issued 17Z valid 23Z Moderate Instability CCFP shows weakening trend over N IL, but there is some moderate instability!

NWS Chat for Collaboration Continuous chat will contain links on where to look at the preliminary CAWS for interested parties. An alert when the final CAWS is available will also be issued.

Preliminary and Final CAWS Available online via link on NWSChat Steps of Production: 1.Continuous OB Collaboration will identify the need for CAWS in NWSChat 2.AWC will produce preliminary graphics and text 3.AWC will publish preliminary CAWS and issue link in NWSChat 4.Changes can be made to preliminary if needed (5-10 minutes) 5.Once no changes are required a final CAWS will be issued and a notice will be posted in NWSChat 6.Command Center NAM or NOM will issue notification of CAWS via advisory

Final CAWS Issued at 1814Z Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001 NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO 1814 UTC Fri 22 Aug 2014 CAWS for Thunderstorms... Valid – 2200Z ARTCCs Affected...ZAU Terminals Affected...KMDW KORD SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms expected to become scattered and approach the Chicago terminals by 20-21Z. DISCUSSION...Despite the guidance (CoSPA/HRRR/CCFP) showing a weakening trend over N IL, soundings are favorable and lightning activity is increasing as the storms move eastward. Expect storms to become scattered over the next couple hours and impact the terminals by 21Z. Storms should quickly leave the area by 22-23Z and move slightly to the SE and intensify. Storms should stay south of Wisconsin-Illinois border. Additional CAWS may be needed as storms move eastward to southeastward. 21Z radar image with CG lightning overlaid. Scattered thunderstorms over the terminal materialized despite guidance having little to no activity. Storms later intensified into a line and approached IND. Another subsequent CAWS would have been issued around 21-22Z timeframe. 21 Aug Z FINAL ISSUED CAWS

2015 CAWS Expectations 2015 is an assessment period and will be a learning experience for everyone Evaluation of CAWS will take place over the summer to refine CAWS requirements Input is needed to improve operational value: Timing (initiation and cessation) Identification of impactful events (missed events, prioritization) Some adjustments by mid-season are possible Feedback from CDM Community will help improve product – SPEAK UP! NTML (end of shift summary) Customer Comments Survey Monkey (during summer assessment)

CAWS Suitability Assessment Live field observations from April – August 2015 – 6-8 weather events – Target ATCSCC, AWC forecasters, Airline Ops Center Evaluate the usability, effectiveness, and areas of potential improvement for OB and the CAWS Obtain feedback from ATM decision makers regarding perceived utility of OB and CAWS – Collect usability/utility data via interviews and questionnaires – Observe CAWS development and collaboration process, notification, and dissemination protocols Document issues and lessons learned

Important Dates 1 Nov 2014: CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance replaced CCFP February 2015: OB and CAWS training for producers and end users Dry Runs: Feb and Feb March 2015: OB and CAWS issuance begins

CAWS Summary Product of OB Process Event driven, high resolution forecast in graphical and textual formats Focused on thunderstorm events affecting the NAS Collaboration: government & industry CDM participants Available via AWC website: Notification of CAWS via Command Center advisory CAWS & CCFP together will be used by TFM to support TMI decision making strategies 35