18.12.2010EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 1 Asymmetric Labor Market Effects of the 2008-9 Crisis Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Director Assist.

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Presentation transcript:

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 1 Asymmetric Labor Market Effects of the Crisis Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Director Assist. Prof. Gökçe Uysal-Kolaşin Vice Director Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (Betam)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 2 Employment and Labor Force (Seasonally adjusted)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 3 Unemployment Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and total number of unemployed

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 4 Non-Agricultural Employment and Labor Force (Seasonally adjusted)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 5 Non-Agricultural Unemployment Seasonally adjusted NA unemployment rate and number of unemployed

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 6 Sectoral Change in Employment Grey line: raw series Blue line: Seasonally adjusted series

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 7 Decompositon of Employment Change Seasonally Adjusted QoQ

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 8 Decomposition of unemployment (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 9 Decomposition of unemployment - Male (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 10 Decomposition of unemployment - Female (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 11 Employment in Manufacturing Sector (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 12 Regular/casual Wage Earners in NA Sectors (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 13 Difference in Differences – Calculation Methodology Difference in difference = (Female emp. aged over 30 (t+1) - Female emp. aged over 30 (t)) - ( Male emp. aged over 30 (t+1) - Male emp. aged over 30 (t) )

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 14 Difference in Differences Difference in formal and informal employment changes (NA)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 15 Diff in Diff – Industry of employment Difference in formal employment changes (in thousands)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 16 Diff in Diff – Education Difference in formal employment changes (in thousands)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 17 Employment in Service Sector (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 18 Own Account Workers in NA Sectors (YoY change)

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 19 Employment and Growth NA Labor ForceNA Employment 2005.Q Q2% 0,8% 0, Q Q2% 0,9% -0, Q Q3% 0,6% 1,3 Quarterly average growth rates Annual average growth rates NA Labor ForceNA Employment 2005.Q Q2% 3,2% 3, Q Q2% 3,6% - 2, Q Q3% 2,4% 5,2

EAF-Challenges to Employment Policy in Turkey 20 THANK YOU