Afrobarometer, Where is Africa Going? And How Does Namibia Fit In? 23 June 2006 Windhoek, Namibia

The Afrobarometer Lived Poverty Africans’ Views of Economics Africans’ Views of Corruption Partisan Identification Africans’ Views of Democracy

Afrobarometer

Purpose A comparative series of national public attitude surveys in Africa on Democracy, Markets and Civil Society Scientific project dedicated to accurate and precise measurement of nationally representative samples of publics Policy relevant project that inserts results into national and global policy discussion Ultimately, advancing democracy in Africa by promoting the voice of public opinion

When and Where In “reforming” African countries (generally, multi party regimes that have had a founding democratic election, or a re- democratizing election) Round 1 (12 countries, mid-1999 to mid 2001) in West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria in East Africa: Uganda and Tanzania in Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe Round 2 (16 countries, mid 2002-late 2003) –repeats original 12 (Zimbabwe in early 2004) –Adds Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal Round 3 (18 countries, 2005) –Adds Madagascar and Benin

Who Does It? Network 3 Core Partners –Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) –Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) –Michigan State University 16 National Partners (NGO, public, private) –Other Individual and Institutional Research Associates Regular Workshops –To discuss policies and protocols and appoint committees to produce concentrated pieces of work like draft questionnaires or revisions of survey methodologies Summer School / Capacity Building –To build Network skills in scientific analysis, including social statistics, report writing and relevant literature

Who Does It? Southern Africa –Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) West Africa –Centre for Democratic Development (CDD- Ghana) East Africa –Michigan State University / –Wilsken Agencies (Uganda)

By Round 4 Southern Africa –Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) West Africa –Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) East Africa –Wilsken Agencies Support Units –Michigan State University –University of Cape Town

Who Supports It? Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (NMFA) Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs World Bank UK Department for International Development (DFID) Danish Governance Trust Fund at the World Bank Royal Dutch Embassy in Namibia Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Trocaire Regional Office for Eastern Africa Michigan State University African Development Bank U.S. National Science Foundation Konrad Adenauer Stiftung

Sampling Random Clustered Stratified Area Probability Proportionate (some exceptions: e.g Tanzania, South Africa) Multi Stage Nationally representative Minimum Sample Size of 1200 gives a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points (2.8 points)

Interviewing Personal, face-to-face interviews Questionnaires translated in to local languages Interviewers fluent in local languages

Lived Poverty

Measuring Lived Poverty Over the past year, how often, if ever have you or your family gone without: –Enough food to eat? –Enough clean water for home use? –Medicines of medical treatment? –Electricity in your home? –Enough fuel to cook your food? –A cash income?

Measuring Lived Poverty Over the past year, how often, if ever have you or your family gone without: –0. Never –1. Just Once or Twice –2. Several Times –3. Many Times –4. Always

Lived Poverty Food Shortages

Lived Poverty

Increasing Lived Poverty Food Shortages ( )

Decreasing Lived Poverty Food Shortages ( )

Africans’ Views of Economics

Measuring Economic Evaluations Present –In general, how would you describe: The present economic condition of this country? Past –Looking back, how do you rate the following compared to twelve months ago? Economic conditions in this country? Future: –Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse? Economic conditions in this country in twelve months time?

Present National Economic Conditions

Evaluations of the National Economy

Increasing Satisfaction With Present National Economic Conditions In Africa ( )

Stable / Stagnant Satisfaction With Present National Economic Conditions In Africa ( )

Declining Satisfaction With Present National Economic Conditions in Africa ( )

Measuring Support for Economic Reform User fees –It is better to raise educational standards, even if we have to pay school fees Job cuts –The government cannot afford so many public employees and should lay some of them off. Economic impact –The government’s economic policies have helped most people; only a few have suffered (percent agree/agree very strongly). Economic patience –In order for the economy to get better in the future, it is necessary for us to accept some hardships now.

Economic Reform

Economic Impact

Economic Patience

Increasing Economic Patience in Africa ( )

Stable Economic Patience in Africa ( )

Decreasing Economic Patience ( )

Africans’ Views of Corruption

Measuring Understandings of Corruption For each of the following, please indicate whether you think the act is not wrong at all, wrong but understandable, or wrong and punishable. –A public official decides to locate a development project in an area where his friends and supporters lived –A government official gives a job to someone from his family who does not have adequate qualifications –A government official demands a favour or an additional payment for some service that is part of his job

Jobs For Relatives

Measuring Perceptions of Corruption How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say –The President and officials in his office –Members of Parliament –Elected local government councilors –National government officials –Local government officials –Police –Tax officials –Judges and magistrates –Health workers –Teachers and school administrators

Perception of Corruption National Government Officials

Perception of Corruption Police

Perceptions of Corruption,

Declining Perceptions of Corruption National Govt Officials ( )

Stable Perceptions of Corruption National Govt Officials ( )

Increasing Perceptions of Corruption National Govt Officials ( )

Measuring Victimization by Corruption In the past year, how often (if ever) have you had to pay a bribe, give a gift, or do a favour to government officials in order –Get a document or a permit? –Get a child into school? –Get a household service (like piped water, electricity or phone)? –Get medicine or medical attention from a health worker –Avoid a problem with the police (like passing a checkpoint or avoiding a fine or arrest)? –And during the XXXX election, how often (if ever) did a candidate or someone from a political party offer you something, like food or a gift, in return for your vote?

Pay a Bribe for Official Document / Permit

Pay a Bribe to Avoid Problem With Police

Partisan Politics

Party Identification ( )

Partisan Identification and Voter Turnout, (12 Afrobarometer Countries, )

Trust In Ruling Parties ( )

Trust In Opposition Parties ( )

Rising Voter Identification With Ruling Political Parties,

Stable Voter Identification With Ruling Political Parties,

Declining Voter Identification With Ruling Parties,

Africans’ Views of Democracy

Measuring Demand for Democracy Support for Democracy –Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? A. Democracy is preferable to any other form of government B. In certain situations, a non-democratic government can be preferable C. To people like me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have.” Rejection of Authoritarian Rule –There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternatives? The army comes in to govern the country (Military rule) Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office (One-party rule) Elections and the parliament are abolished so that the president can decide everything (One-man rule)

Support for Democracy

Rejection of Authoritarian Regimes Presidential Dictatorship

Demand for Democracy

Increasing Support for Democracy,

Decreasing Support for Democracy,

Increasing Demand Over Three Rounds (Reject 3 Forms of Authoritarianism)

Constant Demand Over Three Rounds (Reject 3 Forms of Authoritarianism)

Declining Demand Over Three Rounds (Reject 3 Forms of Authoritarianism)

Measuring the Supply of Democracy Satisfaction with Democracy –How satisfied are you with the way democracy works in ____ ? Extent of Democracy –In your opinion, how much of a democracy is ____ today? A full democracy A democracy, but with minor problems A democracy, but with major problems Not a democracy Freeness and Fairness of Elections –On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election, held in _____? Completely free and fair Free and fair, with minor problems Free and fair, but with major problem Not free and fair at all

Satisfaction With Democracy

Extent of Democracy

Free and Fair Elections

Supply of Democracy

Constant Supply, (Country is Democratic + Satisfied With Democracy)

Declining Supply, (Country is Democratic + Satisfied With Democracy)

Increasing Supply, (Country is Democratic + Satisfied With Democracy)

For More Information: including downloadable versions of questionnaires, data sets, results and publications see