Formulation of Rice Strategy Strategic choices on rice trade policy Ramesh Sharma FAO Regional Office, Bangkok November 2013

Objective To identify and discuss some strategic choices on rice trade policy for various sub- groups of countries, e.g. importers and exporters, small and large.

Sub-categories of countries for trade policy analysis Importers  Japan, Korea Rep., Chinese Taipei  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines  Bangladesh, Sri Lanka Exporters  Pakistan, Thailand, Cambodia  Vietnam  India And, China

India – exports of basmati and non-basmati rice ( , million tonnes)

Main conclusions  Rice trade policy strictly follows domestic rice policy, not the other way around  This implies - trade policy choices/options remain constrained until domestic policy/goal changes (as in EU’s CAP since 1992)  The outlook for rice trade policy is to remain highly regulated (some changes likely in Japan, Korea Rep)  Relatively bigger choice to liberalize for small traders and exporters (and aromatic rice), and vice versa  RTAs in Asia continue with rice in sensitive list  Also, no move in WTO towards negotiating rules that enhance trust in rice markets (e.g. X restriction)

Considerations for strategic choices To continue with highly regulated trade policy Or to follow a path of more rules-based, predictable trade policy (e.g. on export - tax, variable tax, MEP and not quotas and bans) ditto on the import side But fully recognizing the downsides of heavy regulation (inefficiencies, undermining private investment in supply chains, undermining trust in world rice market) The economics of these choices are well known, and should be said in the Rice Strategy paper