Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: Testing policy robustness using the Integrated Assessment Platform For further information contact Jill Jäger ( or visit the project website (

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Aim and definition Examine whether adaptation responses are robust: → Benefits across sectors, scenarios and spatial scales; → Improvement in human well-being through a reduction of vulnerability to climate and socio-economic change. Sectors: food provision, water exploitation, flooding, biodiversity, land use intensity and land use diversity. Four climate scenarios and eight socio-economic scenarios. Robustness across scale: comparing the results for Europe with those for Scotland.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Testing method Group adaptation options according to policy archetypes. Set slider for each measure to the maximum amount that is credible for each socio-economic scenario. Run the Integrated Assessment Platform for each scenario: – without any adaptation; and – with the adaptation options for each of the policy archetypes for 2050s timeslice. Compare the total number of vulnerable people before and after adaptation. Adaptation options that are not modelled in IA Platform were qualitatively assessed through expert judgement.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Policy archetypes Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA): promotes the integrity and health of ecosystems and habitats so that nature retains capacity for adapting to changing complex pressures and conditions. Market-based Adaptation (MbA): fund raising/market mobilisation for adaptation activities; efficient allocation of funds to avoid climate change related damages; promotion of adaptation by various stakeholders; and sharing of financial risks.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Policy archetypes Technology-based Adaptation (TbA): technology such as irrigation, flood defences and advanced early warning systems. People-based Adaptation (PbA): human and social capital, through education and awareness-raising, and building of networks to respond to climate change and changing institutions.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Example results for Europe Biodiversity Socio-economic scenario WATWICARUSRidersShould I stay Climate scenario C1C2C1C2C1C2C1C2 No adaptation EbA MbA TbA PbA Water exploitation index Socio-economic scenario WATWICARUSRidersShould I stay Climate scenario C1C2C1C2C1C2C1C2 No adaptation EbA MbA TbA PbA Number of vulnerable people (2050s):

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Example results for Scotland Biodiversity Socio-economic scenario Tartan SpringMad MaxScottish PlayMactopia Climate scenario Hot-dry Cold- wet Hot-dry Cold- wet Hot-dry Cold- wet Hot-dryCold-wet No adaptation EbA MbA TbA PbA Flooding Socio-economic scenario Tartan SpringMad MaxScottish PlayMactopia Climate scenario Hot-dry Cold- wet Hot-dry Cold- wet Hot-dry Cold- wet Hot-dryCold-wet No adaptation EbA MbA TbA PbA Number of vulnerable people (2050s):

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe Reflection on results Policy archetypes are a useful approach to testing the robustness of combinations of adaptation options using the Integrated Assessment Platform and expert judgment. Scotland: People-based Adaptation seems more robust than Ecosystem-based, Market-based and Technology- based. Europe: People-based and Ecosystem-based Adaptation are more robust than Market-based and Technology-based Adaptation. The method could be further developed to assess the robustness of combinations of different elements of the policy archetypes.