WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Objective: develop and implement a system for estimation and forecasting of fine-scale (100m,

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Presentation transcript:

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Objective: develop and implement a system for estimation and forecasting of fine-scale (100m, minutes) rainfall Rainfall estimation: combining data from radars (X & C-band) and rain gauges Rainfall forecasting: combining with numerical weather prediction implement and test for pilot sites (Leuven, Paris, Rotterdam, London) applicable for urban areas of North-West Europe: guidelines, demonstrations, training, …

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Applications (see WP3, WP4): Rainfall estimation: enable city water managers to develop reliable urban water strategies, including plans for urban flood prevention and pollution management Rainfall forecasting: allow local city managers to forecast, warn about and control urban pluvial impacts at street level in real time

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Actions:

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Actions: WP2 A5 & A6: Rainfall estimation A5: Leuven workshop on radar technology, calibration and rainfall estimation (M3) Outcome: recommended methods for fine-scale rainfall estimation A6: rainfall estimation in pilot sites Outcomes: fine-scale rainfall estimates for recent storms in pilot sites + comparison with traditional rainfall estimates (without radar)

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Actions: WP2 A5 & A6: Rainfall estimation Subtopics addressed: Radar calibration and adjustment based on rain gauge data Different calibration/adjustment methods Comparison & integration of fine-scale (X-band, city scale; super- resolution C-band) with rain gauge and coarser (NWE-scale) C- band radar data Rainfall estimation error/uncertainty analysis Interfacing with the applications in WP3 & WP4

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Actions: WP2 A7 & A8: Rainfall forecasting A7: London workshop on rainfall forecasting (M6) Outcome: recommended methods for fine-scale rainfall forecasting A8: implementation for pilot sites Outcomes: operational system for fine-scale rainfall forecasting in pilot sites + results for min. 10 extreme storms

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Actions: WP2 A7 & A8: Rainfall forecasting (short-term forecasting = nowcasting) Subtopics addressed: Combination of (fine and coarse scale) radar data with Numerical Weather Prediction (provided by national meteo services) Use of lightning detection data Advective-statistical forecast model Spatial and temporal downscaling Error/uncertainty estimation in function of forecast lead time / probabilistic forecasts Interfacing with the applications in WP3 & WP4

WP2 : Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction : Actions: WP2 A9: Guidelines Outcome: reference and user’s manuals on developed technologies for rainfall estimation and forecasting Training and dissemination during National Observer Meetings

WP2: Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction: Timing: WP2 A5: rainfall estimation workshop Leuven: autumn 2012 WP2 A6: autumn 2012 – spring 2014: all pilot sites WP2 A7: rainfall forecasting workshop London: spring 2014 WP2 A8: spring 2014 – spring 2015: all pilot sites WP2 A9: once a year: National Observer Meetings

WP2: Fine-scale rainfall data acquisition and prediction: Workshop participants: workshop Leuven: about 20 radar experts workshop London: about 20 radar + NWP experts local workshops pilot sites: about 20 end users: city flood managers, water managers, consultants and industrial partners

Leuven case Aquafin & K.U.Leuven X-band radar installed since 2008 City LAWR (DHI) Site selection based on clutter tests Experience with calibration

Other fine-scale radar projects in Europe Denmark: X-band LAWR radar Aalborg Comparison of different calibration procedures (incl. dynamic calibration) Impact on urban drainage

Other fine-scale radar projects in Europe France – Lyon: C-band radar located in the close vicinity Rain gauges vs. radar Study of intense rain cells Impact on urban drainage

Other fine-scale radar projects in Europe France – Southern Alps: (RHyTMME project) Local X band radar network (4 radars, 2 operational) Installed in mountainous area prone to orographically-induced flooding Gap filling function in ARAMIS (C and S band network)

Other fine-scale radar projects outside Europe USA: CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere) Local X band network (moving from Oklahoma “Tornado Alley” to Fort Dallas in 2012)

Other fine-scale radar projects in Europe USA: Comparison polarimetric X-band vs. S-band Impact on catchment runoff

Other fine-scale radar projects outside Europe Japan: X-NET Nationwide X-band Polarimetric Radar Network (26 radars cover about 80% of the total population)

Leuven case BELGIUM Contributors from Belgium: Patrick Willems, K.U.Leuven Johan Van Assel, Aquafin Maarten Reyniers, Laurent Delobbe, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium

City of Leuven: urban drainage system of the villages Herent, Wisele & Wijgmaal Leuven case

City of Leuven: urban drainage system of the villages Herent, Wisele & Wijgmaal Area: 9.13 km 2 # people: 16,100 9 tipping bucket rain gauges In-sewer measurements: Water level + velocity in 2 pipes Water level at 3 overflows + water level in river

Leuven case Tipping bucket rain gauges: calibration

Leuven case Tipping bucket rain gauges: correction wind influence: TBR 2 TBR 1

Leuven case X-band radar installed since 2008: City LAWR (DHI)

Leuven case 25 ProvinciehuisRWZI BierbeekRes. RiversideEcowerf Micro Radar Clutter tests

Leuven case Beam cut-off

Leuven case X-band radar image

Leuven case X-band radar calibration

Leuven case X-band radar calibration G (mm/h)

Leuven case SP C-band radars –Wideumont (RMI) –Zaventem (Belgocontrol) DP C-band radar: –from beginning 2012 in Jabbeke (Delobbe et al., 2006)