A.Horányi, Gabriella Csima, P. Szabó, G. Szépszó, Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), Budapest, Hungary J. Bartholy, A. Hunyady, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, Cs. Torma Eötvös Loránd University (ELU), Department of Meteorology, Budapest, Hungary APPLICATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL MINI-ENSEMBLE FOR THE CARPATHIAN BASIN EMS/ECAM ANNUAL MEETING, 2009 / Toulouse, 28 September – 2 October, 2009

CONTENTCONTENT Members of the regional climate modelling mini- ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO models) Members of the regional climate modelling mini- ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO models) Validation results ( ) Validation results ( ) Projections ( and ) Projections ( and ) Summary Summary

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARY RCMALADINPRECISRegCMREMO RESOLUTION 10 km 25 km 10 km 25 km LEVELS 31 hybrid 19 hybrid 18 sigma 20 hybrid METHOD Time slices Transient VALIDATION RUNS LBCs : ERA : ARPEGE : ERA : HadCM : ERA : ECHAM : ERA : ECHAM SCENARIO RUNS A1B A1B A B A1B A1B A1B

THE INTEGRATION DOMAINS Hungary REMO ALADIN PRECIS RegCM Evaluation area for maps

VALIDATION RESULTS PERIOD: , LBC: ERA40, VALIDATION DATASET: CRU10’

ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C)  ALADIN is too cold, while REMO is too warm!  PRECIS and RegCM have less bias, but rather cold over the mountains (not shown)

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%)  All the models are rather humid (especially ALADIN and RegCM)  For PRECIS and especially for REMO also some dry areas can be identified

PROJECTIONS PERIODS: and

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES (°C) The standard deviation between the models is larger in summer (than in other seasons) indicating larger uncertainties 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2 2021–2050; 3 models; A1B

MONTHLY MEAN PECIPITATION VALUES (mm/month) The ALADIN model has very different behaviour, than the others, the annual cycle is very „flat” for RegCM 2021–2050; 3 models; A1B 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2

ALADIN REGCM PRECISREMO JANUARY JULY CHANGE OF RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE ( , and ) Remarkable shift of the summer temperature distribution for the PRECIS model

THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION The changes are rather small and mostly not significant (except the summer precipitation decrease) mm/month

Ann.MAMJJASONDJF The probability of temperature increase 1  C  C4  C  C 1  C  C 4  C  C THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DOESN’T EXCEED 2  C FOR THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MORE THAN 4  C FOR

Ann.MAMJJASONDJF The probability of precipitation decrease -10% % -10% % -10% % -10% % THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE WILL BE LESS THAN 10% FOR THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANT (50%) IN SUMMER FOR

Ann.MAMJJASONDJF The probability of precipitation increase 5% % 5% % 5% % 5% % THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMN FOR THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMN AND WINTER FOR

SUMMARYSUMMARY Four regional climate models (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO) are adapted and used in HungaryFour regional climate models (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO) are adapted and used in Hungary The performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat differentThe performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat different First results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for HungaryFirst results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for Hungary The temperature is projected to increase with 1-2  C The temperature is projected to increase with 1-2  C The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!) The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!) The summer precipitation decrease is very likely The summer precipitation decrease is very likely The temperature is projected to increase with around 4  C The temperature is projected to increase with around 4  C Slight decrease of annual precipitation is likely Slight decrease of annual precipitation is likely The summer precipitation decrease is almost certain The summer precipitation decrease is almost certain Some limitationsSome limitations Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three can be considered) can be considered) The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same! The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same!

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