Summary of predicted climate effects on species Source: Foden, Mace et al IUCN

CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS Increases in surface air temperature, IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change A2 Medium/high emissions scenario “Business as usual” B1 Low emissions scenario A1B Medium emissions scenario

Vulnerability framework Levels of vulnerability used to grade species

28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: Hawksbill Turtle, Green Turtle, Balearic Shearwater, Kemp's Ridley Turtle, Narwhal, North Pacific Right Whale, Northern Atlantic Right Whale, Relict Gull, Gharial, Loggerhead Turtle, Short-tailed Albatross, West African Manatee, Bowhead Whale, Dama Gazelle, Leatherback Turtle, Sociable Plover, Southern Right Whale, Olive Ridley, Addax, Red-breasted Goose, White-naped Crane, Steller's Eider, Siberian Crane, Blue Whale, Giant Catfish, Basra Reed-warbler, Common Sturgeon, Bermuda Petrel and Snow Leopard.

RIS light-trap network Trap operating currently Trap no longer operated > 400 have run at least 1 full year 80 – 100 run annually 56 sites sampled ≥15 years 30 sites sampled ≥25 years Continuous, national record of >400 macro-moth species One of the world’s longest records of contemporary insect biodiversity

Decline in total trap catches Total Catch / Site Year Abundance Index % decrease in 35 years

Two fundamental concerns… Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming threat? Are we sufficiently responding to that threat?

What is a safe temperature/CO 2 level? Current focus is all on 2 o C (~450ppm CO 2 )