DISASTERS, RISK and SUSTAINABILITY Omar D. Cardona

Disaster was understood as synonym of “natural event” (Approach of natural sciences)

Disaster as result of “lack of physical strength” (Approach of applied sciences)

Disaster as consequence of “exposure in prone areas” (Approach of land use planning)

Disaster as an “unsolved problem of development” A social and environmental event (Holistic approach)

Disaster supposes the prior existence of determined risk conditions. From this perspective, disasters may be considered unmanaged risks. Risk is constructed socially, even though the physical phenomenon is natural. Concentrating on “risk” clearly allows us to discriminate between needs and activities “ex ante” and “ex post”. Disaster supposes the prior existence of determined risk conditions. From this perspective, disasters may be considered unmanaged risks. Risk is constructed socially, even though the physical phenomenon is natural. Concentrating on “risk” clearly allows us to discriminate between needs and activities “ex ante” and “ex post”. From the holistic approach …(La RED)

With the increasing awareness of the fact that risk is the essential problem (process) and disaster a derived problem (product), the topic of intervention has been subject to changing emphases and terminologies. It is also important to remember that the concept of risk is linked to decision-making, and, therefore, it has a temporal dimension that relates to the feasibility and conveni- ence of taking action. With the increasing awareness of the fact that risk is the essential problem (process) and disaster a derived problem (product), the topic of intervention has been subject to changing emphases and terminologies. It is also important to remember that the concept of risk is linked to decision-making, and, therefore, it has a temporal dimension that relates to the feasibility and conveni- ence of taking action. Disaster Risk

Vulnerability factors: physical exposure, social fragilities and lack of resilience

Fundamental to understand how vulnerability is generated, how it grows and how it progressively accumulates.

Research and understanding is required of community “images” or “readings” of risk and disasters and of the ways to face up to them.

Poverty generates risk and disasters perpetuate and accentuate poverty. It is impossible to speak of sustainable development where a risk reduction strategy does not exist. Vulnerability reduction must be an explicit objective of development planning. Poverty generates risk and disasters perpetuate and accentuate poverty. It is impossible to speak of sustainable development where a risk reduction strategy does not exist. Vulnerability reduction must be an explicit objective of development planning.

When...the facts are uncertain,...the values are in dispute,...the stakes are high, and...the decisions are urgent. When...the facts are uncertain,...the values are in dispute,...the stakes are high, and...the decisions are urgent.

It is necessary to “make risk manifest” in different ways for those in charge and to be socialized. Its causes must be identified in order to be able to evaluate the effectiveness of both corrective and prospective mitigation measures. It is necessary to “make risk manifest” in different ways for those in charge and to be socialized. Its causes must be identified in order to be able to evaluate the effectiveness of both corrective and prospective mitigation measures.

Disaster Risk Management - DRM Involves four different, but related public policies: a)Risk identification; b)Risk reduction; c)Disaster management; d)Risk transfer. Involves four different, but related public policies: a)Risk identification; b)Risk reduction; c)Disaster management; d)Risk transfer.

“ DRM needs risk dimensioning, and risk sizing signifies to take into account not only the expected physical damage, victims and economic equivalent loss, but also social, organizational and institutional factors. From the multidisciplinary point of view this means we need to consider hard and soft variables related to both the impact of the event, the capacity of society to sustain the impact and the implications of this. “ DRM needs risk dimensioning, and risk sizing signifies to take into account not only the expected physical damage, victims and economic equivalent loss, but also social, organizational and institutional factors. From the multidisciplinary point of view this means we need to consider hard and soft variables related to both the impact of the event, the capacity of society to sustain the impact and the implications of this.

time is subjective: The perception of it is fuzzy, contracted, it flows, it stops risk is subjective: It doesn´t matter if a watch is hard or soft; what matters is that it shows the right time

The perception of it is fuzzy, contracted, it flows, it stops risk is subjective: It doesn’t matter, if the risk assessment is right

Prospective intervention Corrective intervention Control system Risk Management System Hazards Risk Actuation system Vulnerability Risk h1 h2 h3 h4 V(  i (t),t), i=1,2,….,n) Vulnerability 1111 2222 3333 iiii nnnn H i, i=1, 2,…., m I 1111  I 2222  I 3333  I iiii  I nnnn  COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEM R(H i, V) Vulnerability Risk h1 h2 h3 h4 Vulnerability Risk h1 h2 h3 h4 Vulnerability Risk h1 h2 h3 h4 EXPOSED ELEMENTS IHIHIHIH IRIRIRIR

Appropriate disaster risk evaluation tools are necessary to facilitate understanding of the problem and to guide decision- making In addition, DRM performance must be measured to facilitate access to relevant information on the part of decision-makers, thus making identification and proposal of effective policies and actions possible. Appropriate disaster risk evaluation tools are necessary to facilitate understanding of the problem and to guide decision- making In addition, DRM performance must be measured to facilitate access to relevant information on the part of decision-makers, thus making identification and proposal of effective policies and actions possible.

DRM is only possible with the convergence of technical and scientist knowledge an experience, the political and administrative will and the community participation and acceptance. Anticipation means Governance! DRM is only possible with the convergence of technical and scientist knowledge an experience, the political and administrative will and the community participation and acceptance. Anticipation means Governance! Feasibility of Disaster Risk Management

Although many best and exemplary mitiga- tion practices exist these are still by far the exception and not the rule. A lack of knowledge is not the problem but, rather, the lack of coverage and effectiveness in the implementation of risk reduction policies and measures. The problem is growing far faster than the solution. Although many best and exemplary mitiga- tion practices exist these are still by far the exception and not the rule. A lack of knowledge is not the problem but, rather, the lack of coverage and effectiveness in the implementation of risk reduction policies and measures. The problem is growing far faster than the solution. Current Urgent Concerns

Disaster risk assessment undertaken from a holistic perspective to promote political-will and -feasibility. DRM performance evaluation to get political commitment, visibility, effectiveness and to move forward. Global networked governance for the follow up of the governments’ DRM performance. Disaster risk assessment undertaken from a holistic perspective to promote political-will and -feasibility. DRM performance evaluation to get political commitment, visibility, effectiveness and to move forward. Global networked governance for the follow up of the governments’ DRM performance. Challenges for DRM Improvement