2C1Forest and Science-based Conservation: Overview of Phase 1 Accomplishments Justina C. Ray, WCS Canada

2C1Forest reinventing conservation for 21st Century Science-based, transboundary, landscape-scale conservation

A 2C1Forest Collaborative Project Mark Anderson Science Team, TNC lead Rob Baldwin 2C1Forest Scientist, Future Trends/Maine lead Karen Beazley Science Team, Dalhousie/NS lead Graham Forbes Science Team, UNB/NB lead Louise Gratton Science Team, NCC/Que. lead Justina Ray Science Team, WCS lead Conrad Reining Science Team, Wildlands lead Steve Trombulak Science Director, 2C1Forest/VT,NH,NY lead Gillian Woolmer HF 2000 lead, lead GIS analyst

Phase 1: Laying foundation for landscape- scale conservation strategy: priority locations Phase 2: Planning for connectivity and climate change in focal linkage areas

Regional Initiatives 1.Ecoregional Assessment  The Nature Conservancy & Nature Conservancy Canada 2.Wildlands Network  Wildlands Project 3.Human Footprint WCS Canada 4.Future Human Footprint 2040  2C1Forest

Conservation Planning Components  Importance: the extent to which locations on the landscape are replaceable with respect to achieving the conservation goals we have specified.  Vulnerabilility: extent and threat of conversion/transformation both now and in the future.

Measuring Importance Special ecosystems Representative land units Focal species Rare species

Ecoregional Planning Select Conservation Targets Fine Filter:Species Coarse Filter: Ecological Communities, Systems, and Physical Diversity Assess Viability of Target Occurrences Size Condition Landscape Context Set Representation and Redundancy Goals Number and Distribution

Geology Landforms Climate Elevation Landcover (ELU’s)

Irreplaceability  MARXAN site selection tool  1000 ha planning units  Protected Areas locked-in, Urban areas locked-out  Preference for public lands (incld. crown lands)  Conservation elements Focal species – lynx, marten and Wolf (Carroll, 2003 & 2005) Ecological variation (TNC/NCC)) Rare element occurrences (TNC/NCC)

10-km 2 hexagons

Sanderson et al Bioscience. THREAT/VULNERABILITY

Human Influence Layers Human SettlementRoadsRail LandcoverMinesDams Major Utility Corridors

Human Influence Index (HII)

Normalize by Ecological-Subregions

Physical habitat degradation: two processes Human Footprint )Incremental expansion in settled landscapes (Modeled in Future Human Footprint with residential roads and population density) 2) Large-scale conversion of “wild” and unsettled landscapes Modeled in FHF with Lakeshore Development Zones

Lily Bay After proposed resort development (photo simulation) Lily Bay Before proposed resort development Simulation obtained from Natural Resources Council of Maine Land Use Change Process 2: Moosehead Lake proposed development on private forestland

Future Human Footprint (2040) North Central Lakes scenario (rapid growth)

Change ( )

Conservation Prioritization IRREPLACEABILITY  TNC: Ecoregional Assessment  Wildlands Project: Network Design THREAT (Vulnerability)  Human Footprint  Future Human Footprint

Noss et al A Multicriteria Assessment of Irreplaceability and Vulnerability of Sites in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem. Conservation Biology CONSERVATION PLANNING: SPATIAL PRIORITIZATION

3 Units of Analysis

Each planning unit has: 1 score for importance 4 scores for HF scenarios High Importance, Low Threat High Importance, High Threat Low importance, High Threat Low importance, Low Threat CUT-OFF Hi/Lo: MEDIAN SCORES URGENCY & OPPORTUNITY

Importance vs. Threat (current) at 10 km 2 scale

Importance vs. Threat (current) at Watershed scale

Importance vs. Threat (current) at Ecological Unit scale

Importance vs. Threat (Current HF) at 10 km 2 scale Importance vs. Threat (transition) at 10 km 2 scale

KEY PATTERNS  large areas that still retain characteristics of “wild” landscapes and that have not yet experienced permanent transformation to settlement,  large areas of permanent transformation that threaten and increasingly fragment the “wild” landscapes,  an increase in transformation in most locations under most future scenarios, and  areas of high irreplaceability and vulnerability across the region that are not currently protected or targeted for protection.

TAKE-HOME MESSAGES  Identifies the most urgent priorities in the form of conservation triage.  Identifies sites that are most likely to increase in vulnerability status, many of which lie within zones of connectivity between important relatively intact areas.  The selection of the planning unit has great bearing on the ultimate results in priority ranking, and must therefore be chosen carefully.  Individual layers that collectively contribute to assessments of irreplaceability and vulnerability should not disappear from view, and will be equally valuable to planners characterizing the landscape in question.

PRIORITY LINKAGES