Systems Thinking Part 2 Louis Rowitz, PhD Director Mid-America Regional Public Health Leadership Institute

Systems thinking creates a new language for communicating about complexities and interdependencies.

Systems thinking language is circular rather then linear, focusing on closed interdependencies. X Z Policy Development Assessment Assurance =

Systems thinkers use visual language in diagram from which is a powerful means of communication because it distills the essence of a problem into a format that can be easily remembered.

Within the framework of systems thinking, “us” and “them” are part of the same system and thus responsible for both the problems and their solutions.

Levels of Understanding Action Mode Time Orientation Typical Questions Shared Vision Generative Future What are the stated or unstated visions that generate the structures? Creative What are the mental or organizational structures that create the patterns? Systemic Structure Adaptive What kinds of trends or patterns of events seem to be recurring? Patterns of Events Reactive Present Events What is the fastest way to react to this event NOW?

Four Systems Thinking Tools Brainstorming Tools Dynamic Thinking Tools Structural Thinking Tools Computer-Based Tools

Reinforcing and balancing loops are the building blocks of complex social systems. Reinforcing loop produces growth and decay – compound change in one direction with even more change Balancing loop generate the realities associated with change- factors that resist further increases in a given direction

Brainstorming Tools

The Double Q Diagram Qualitative and Quantitative Hard Factors (Quantitative) The Issue Soft Factors (Qualitative) Visual Map of the Key Factor Related to an Issue

Dynamic Thinking Tools Dynamic relationships between variables Behavior Over Time Causal Loops Systems Archetypes

Behavior Over Time Performance Level Time A B

Example Behavior Over Time Time Supportive Behavior Performance Level Unsupportive Behavior Over Time

Causal Loop B R C A R= Reinforcing B= Balancing

Guidelines to Causal Loops Select a clear theme Determination of time dimension Behavior over time charts Set boundaries around the theme Level of aggregation-patterns of events Significant delay factors

Causal Loop Stress B1 R2 Health Productivity Alcohol Use R= Reinforcing B= Balancing Stress Alcohol Use B1 R2 Productivity Health

System Archetype Aid in the Recognition of common system behavior Drifting Goals Escalation Fixes that Fail Growth and Underinvestment Limits to Success Shifting the Burden Success to be Successful Tragedy of the Commons

Drifting Goals B2 B1 o Goal Pressure to Lower Goal s s Gap o s Actual B1 Corrective Action Delay s

Drifting Goals B2 B1 _______ _______ ______ o ________ s s ______ o s __________ Delay s

Quality of A’s Position Escalation Threat to B A’s Result B’s Result Quality of A’s Position Relative to B’s Activity by A to A B2 B1 s o by B

Quality of A’s Position Escalation Threat to B ________ A’s Result B’s Result Quality of A’s Position Relative to B’s ___________ Activity by A ______ to A _________ B2 B1 s o by B

Fixes that Fail B1 R2 Fix Problem Symptom Unintended Consequence Delay

Fixes that Fail _________ ________ B1 ______ R2 ______ __________ Fix Problem Symptom ________ B1 ______ o s R2 ______ Delay Unintended Consequence __________ s

Growth and Underinvestment Effort R1 Demand B2 Performance Standard s o Performance s s o Capacity B3 Perceived Need to Invest s Delay Investment in Capacity Delay s

Growth and Underinvestment __________ R1 ________ Demand B2 __________ Performance Standard s o __________ s s o __________ B3 __________ __________ s Delay Investment in Capacity Delay s

Limits to Success R1 B2 Constraint s o s Efforts Performance Limiting Action s s

Limits to Success R1 B2 __________ s o s __________ __________

Shifting the Burden/Addiction Symptomatic Solution s B1 R3 s Problem Symptom Side-Effect o o s B2 Delay Fundamental Solution s o

Shifting the Burden/Addiction Symptomatic Solution __________ s B1 __________ R3 __________ s Problem Symptom __________ Side-Effect __________ o o s B2 __________ Delay Fundamental Solution __________ s o

Success to the Successful Resources to B Allocation to A Instead of B Success of A to A R2 R1 s o Success of B

Success to the Successful Resources to B __________ Allocation to A Instead of B Success of A to A R2 R1 s o Success of B

Tragedy of Commons R1 B5 R3 R4 B6 R2 Delay s Net Gains for A Resource Limit s R1 B5 A’s Activity s o s R3 Total Activity Gain per Individual Activity Delay s o R4 B’s Activity o s s B6 R2 Net Gains for B s s

Tragedy of Commons R1 __________ B5 R3 B6 __________ R2 __________ Net Gains for A __________ Resource Limit __________ s R1 __________ B5 __________ A’s Activity __________ s o s R3 Total Activity __________ Gain per Individual Activity __________ Delay s o B’s Activity __________ R4____ o s s B6 __________ R2 __________ Net Gains for B __________ s s