Experiences in Linking a Soil C and N Module into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) Jo Smith 1, Kevin Coleman 2, Pete Smith 1 Andy Whitmore 2, Pete Falloon 3 Matt Aitkenhead 1, Chris Jones

Questions  What is the state of the art?  What data are required to improve and evaluate the model?  How could better science improve the model?  What are the key feedbacks to be quantified?  Are other feedbacks expected?  What significant improvements in next 5 years?

Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices IPCC WGIII (2007)

Uncertainty in anthropogenic carbon emissions up to 400 ppm IPCC SRES 2000; Friedlingstein et al Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st century up to 250 ppm Uncertainty in biospheric-carbon-climatefeedback Slide adapted from Pep Canadell, GCP

Objectives  Soil C and N component –Fully integrated –Had-GEM  Existing model –Tested and published –Live –Adapted for general application  Source code available to all –Programming style –Provenence

HadGEM2 JULES UK community land surface model RothC Model of soil C SUNDIAL Model of soil C and N - arable soils ECOSSE Model of soil C and N - all soil types & all land uses MOSES Soil water TRIFFID Plant model

Soil Carbon Model – RothC (Jenkinson, 1977) DPM RPM CO 2 BIO HUM CO 2 BIO HUM Decomposable plant material Resistant plant material Active organic matter Stabilised organic matter IOM Inert organic matter

Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, ` Bad Lauchstädt - arable No fertiliser Bad Lauchstädt - arable High fertiliser Praha-Ruznye - arable No fertiliser Praha-Ruznye - arable High fertiliser Tamworth - fallow Tamworth – clover/lucerne Waite – wheat / fallowWaite – wheat/oats/pasture Years Soil organic carbon (t C ha -1 )

Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, Rothamsted – Park grass No fertiliser Calhoun forestry Rothamsted – Park grass Organic manure Geescroft Wilderness Years Soil organic carbon (t C ha -1 )

Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, Comparison of 9 major soil organic matter models CENTURY ROTHC CANDY DNDC DAISY SOMM ITE Verberne NCSOIL RMSE RMSE 95%

Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, CENTURY ROTHC CANDY DNDC DAISY SOMM ITE Verberne NCSOIL E Comparison of 9 major soil organic matter models E 95%

Evaluation of Roth-C EG. Smith et al (1997) Geoderma, 81, Comparison of 9 major soil organic matter models CENTURY ROTHC CANDY DNDC DAISY SOMM ITE Verberne NCSOIL ) t(r)

Application of Roth-C Soft link to a DGVM Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11,

Scenarios for future climate (IPCC SRES) GlobalLocal Economically oriented Environmentally oriented A1 – “World Markets” very rapid economic growth low population growth rapid introduction of technology personal wealth above environment A2 – “Provincial Enterprise” strengthening regional cultural identities emphasis on family values and local traditions high population growth less concern for rapid economic development B1 – “Global Sustainability” rapid change in economic structures "dematerialization” introduction of clean technologies emphasis is on global solutions B2 – “Local Stewardship” emphasis is on local solutions less rapid, and more diverse technological change strong emphasis on community initiative local, rather than global solutions Nakicenovic et al. (2000), Smith & Powlson (2003)

Climate-only impact on forest SOC (effect of different climate scenarios) (HadCM3)

Climate-only impact on cropland and grassland SOC - (effect of different climate scenarios) (HadCM3)

Change in forest SOC – climate only

Note: 2080 and 1990 are 30 year averages of and respectively Change in forest SOC - climate only SOC Temperature Water balance

Change in grassland SOC – climate only

Change in cropland SOC – climate only

Application of Roth-C Soft link to a DGVM Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11,

Change in forest litter inputs (HadCM3)

Comparing climate-only with climate & litter effects for forest (HadCM3-A2)

Comparing climate-only with climate&NPP effects for croplands & grasslands (HadCM3-A2) Climate OnlyClimate and NPP

Effect of technology in croplands & grasslands (HadCM3-A2) Climate Only Climate & NPPClimate & NPP & Tech Minimum Maximum

Application of Roth-C Soft link to a DGVM Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11,

Impact on total forest SOC No land-use change

Including land-use change Impact on total forest SOC

Impact on total grassland SOC Including land-use change A1FIA2 B1B2

Impact on total cropland SOC Including land-use change A1FIA2 B1B2

Overall effect on forest SOC land-use changeland-use change change in age-class structurechange in age-class structure climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil +0.1% -0.3% +27% +19% Total SOC (Pg)

Overall effect on grassland SOC land-use changeland-use change technology improvementtechnology improvement climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil -35% -44% -20% +25% Total SOC (Pg)

Overall effect on cropland SOC -53% -51% -40% -39% Total SOC (Pg) land-use changeland-use change change in age-class structurechange in age-class structure technology improvementtechnology improvement climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil

Overall effect on total SOC -23% -24% -5% -0.5% Total SOC (Pg) land-use changeland-use change technology improvementtechnology improvement climate and CO 2 driven NPP increaseclimate and CO 2 driven NPP increase direct climate impacts on the soildirect climate impacts on the soil includes biofuels and other land usesincludes biofuels and other land uses

Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data Historical LPJ -DGVM GCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCEN LPJ -DGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al Smith et al (2005) GCB, 11, Feedbacks Plant Growth CO 2 Soil N N2ON2O

Soil level CO 2 Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Water Module Temperature Module Texture Module Decomposition INPUTS Yield & manage DPMRPM Carbon Component of SUNDIAL BIO HUM IOM INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Soil C and N model for arable land - SUNDIAL Bradbury et al, 1993 Smith et al, 1996

Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Temperature Module Texture Module Soil level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Decomposition RPM DPM Water Module N 2 O & N 2 NH 3 INPUTS Yield & management Nitrogen Component of SUNDIAL Soil C and N model for arable land - SUNDIAL Plant N Leached N NO 3 - BIO HUM IOM NH 4 + Bradbury et al, 1993 Smith et al, 1996

Evaluation of SUNDIAL SUNDIAL SUNDIALMINERVA RMSE t(M) 1.5 (n.s) - Simulated and Observed Soil Mineral N (0-90 cm) Loam site (Krummbach) - Treatment Without Manure

Evaluation of SUNDIAL All non-significant Simulated and Observed Soil Organic C and N Loam site (Krummbach)

Soil level CO 2 Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Water Module Decomposition INPUTS Yield & manage DPMRPM Carbon Component of ECOSSE BIO HUM IOM INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Soil C and N model for all land use - ECOSSE Water level Oxygen Acidity Acidity Module Oxygen Module Temperature Module Texture Module CH 4 Methane Oxidation Meth. Oxid. DOC INPUTS NPP & LU Type

Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Texture Module Soil level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Decomposition RPM DPM N 2 O & N 2 NH 3 Nitrogen Component of ECOSSE Water level Soil C and N model for all land use - ECOSSE INPUTS NPP & LU Type Acidity Acidity Module Oxygen Module Temperature Module Water Module Plant N BIO NO 3 - HUM IOM NH 4 + Leached N DON

Respiration rate during laboratory incubation (Foereid et al., 2004) Independent evaluation – CO 2 release Calculations by B. Foereid, UoA

Independent evaluation – soil ammonium and nitrate in a peat in Finland Ammonium and nitrate simulated by ECOSSE for a peat cultivated with spring barley in southern Finland (60 o 49 ’ N, 23 o 30 ’ E). Calculations by B. Foereid, UoA

Soil NH 4 in a peat cultivated with spring barley in Southern Finland (60 o 49 ’ N, 23 o 30 ’ E) (Regina et al, 2004). Independent evaluation – soil ammonium in a cultivated peat in Finland Calculations by M.Aitkenhead, UoA

N 2 O emissions for a peat cultivated with spring barley in Southern Finland (60 o 49 ’ N, 23 o 30 ’ E) (Regina et al, 2004). Independent evaluation – nitrous oxide emissions from a cultivated peat in Finland Calculations by M.Aitkenhead, UoA

Mass loss from litterbag experiment in Harvard forest, US (Magill & Aber, 1998) Nitrogen content in remaining material from litterbag experiment in Harvard forest, US (Magill & Aber, 1998) Independent evaluation – Mass loss & N from litter bags – more to do Calculations by B. Foereid, UoA

Nitrate in 50 cm Implementation of “birch effect” Growing season Growing season Data from Ikerra (1999)

Ammonium in 50 cm Implementation of “birch effect” Growing season Growing season Data from Ikerra (1999)

Soil Water 0 – 50 cm Data from Hartemink (2000) Water in mm 0 – 15 cm cm cm

Application of ECOSSE National simulations… 1.Test model at site scale 2.Compare to best current estimates at national scale

Application of ECOSSE Scotland National simulations compare well with the CEH inventory…

Scotland Total Grassland -> Arable Arable -> Grassland Application of ECOSSE

Soil C (ROTH-C) Climate Data HistoricalDGVMGCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCENDGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al Feedbacks Plant Growth CO 2 Soil N N2ON2O CO 2 & CH 4 Soil N N2ON2O Soil C (ECOSSE)

HadGEM2 JULES UK community land surface model State of the art RothC Model of soil Cour SUNDIAL Model of soil C and N - arable soils ECOSSE Model of soil C and N - all land uses MOSES Soil water TRIFFID Plant model

Moisture Texture Temperature Decomposition Drivers Texture Module Soil level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp INPUTS Soil Parameters Decomposition RPM DPM N 2 O & N 2 NH 3 Nitrogen Component of Organic Soils Model Water level Soil C and N model for all land use - ECOSSE Acidity Acidity Module Oxygen Module Temperature Module Water Module BIO NO 3 - HUM IOM NH 4 + Leached N DON INPUTS NPP & LU Type JULES Soil water Plant N JULES Plant model

Soil C (ECOSSE) Feedbacks CO 2 & CH 4 Soil N N2ON2O Climate Data HistoricalDGVMGCM Soils Data NPP Data EFISCENDGVM Land Use Data ATEAM Rounsevell Corine database Technology Data Ewert et al Plant Growth CO 2

Significant improvements over the next 5 years…

Nitrogen – a key feedback Mangani et al (2007) Nature, 447:

Significant improvements over the next 5 years  Large scale runs including C and N feedbacks –on climate –on plant growth (more in next talk?)

Potential of agricultural management for global mitigation Smith et al. (2007)

Significant improvements over the next 5 years  Large scale runs including C and N feedbacks –on climate –on plant growth (more in next talk?)  Impacts of land management

Questions  What is the state of the art?  What data are required to improve and evaluate the model?  How could better science improve the model?  What are the key feedbacks to be quantified?  Are other feedbacks expected?  What significant improvements in next 5 years? Soil C and N model linked and ready to go More site evaluation Large scale evaluation? GHG  Climate GHG  plant growth Climate  plant growth Climate  Soil C & N Climate  land use Plant growth  GHG Plant growth  Soil C & N Plant growth  Land use Land use  GHG Land use  Soil C & N Soil C & N  plant growth Soil C & N  GHG Large scale runs including C & N feedbacks Impacts of land management Temperature sensitivity Physical protection

Acknowledgements  Scottish Executive –Development of ECOSSE  EU –ATEAM –CarboEurope - IP –NitroEurope - IP  DEFRA –Development of soils module in JULES  NERC QUEST –Further development of soils module in JULES  BBSRC –Rothamsted Research receives grant aided support from the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council