1 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1 Center for Policy Informatics 2 School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning 2 nd International UGEC Conference Taipei, Taiwan November 2014

2 Maricopa County, Arizona Part of 12th largest metro area in U.S. (2012 pop: 3.9 M) Mean monthly high temperatures: –June: 40ºC/104ºF –July: 41ºC/106ºF –August: 40ºC/104ºF

3 Heat-health impacts in Maricopa County HeatAZ.com (Maricopa County Dept. of Public Health)

4 Urbanization: A key climate forcing Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change SunCorrHi Scenario

5 Urbanization: A key climate forcing Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change SunCorrHi vs. B SunCorrLow vs. A

6 Contrasting observed diurnal temperature trends and the “oasis effect” Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change; Georgescu et al. 2011, JGR Urban site Rural site

7 Study Framework Max Temp Mean Temp Min Temp Moving averages SunCorrHi SunCorrLow SunCorrAdapt Urbanization scenario Exposure variable Projections of future heat-related mortality

8 Urbanization Effects on Temperature “Max” “Min”“Mean” Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

9 Temperature-Mortality Model Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

10 Temperature-Mortality Model Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

11 Calculation of Excess Mortality Day of Summer Daily Mortality June 7 Observed temp. (°C)43.5 Baseline mortality50.04 RR Mortality at given temperature Predicted excess mortality Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

12 Synthetic Future Temperature Time Series Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

13 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al Science of the Total Environment Max Mean Min +205 deaths/yr -46 deaths/yr

14 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al Science of the Total Environment Max Mean Min

15 Conclusions Urbanization may contribute to future changes in heat-related mortality Projections highly sensitive to urbanization scenario and exposure variable choice Urban “oasis” effect in arid and semi-arid climates a potential mitigator of daytime heat stress Preference for low growth or adaptation strategies depends on key exposure variable

16 Acknowledgements ASU Piper Health Policy Informatics Initiative NSF EAR Office of Vital Statistics, Arizona Department of Health Services ICB local and scientific committees

17 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1 Center for Policy Informatics 2 School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning 2 nd International UGEC Conference Taipei, Taiwan November 2014

18 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix MaxMeanMin Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

19 Urbanization: A key climate forcing Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change SunCorrHi Scenario SunCorrLow SunCorrAdapt

20 Urbanization Scenarios Georgescu et al. 2012, Envi. Res. Letters

21 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

22 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment