Presentation to the UN workshop The Challenge of Sustainability The world economy’s use of natural resources: history, dynamics, drivers and future perspectives Marina Fischer-Kowalski Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna Alpen Adria University

Six messages I wish to get across Centennial resource use explosion Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density sociometabolic regimes and transitions between them inform future scenarios of resource use Relative decoupling is business as usual and drives growth; absolute decoupling is rare Reference point for resource use: human wellbeing rather than income generation Need to understand complex system dynamics, dispose of some illusions and utilize windows of opportunity in space and time Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Message 1: Centennial resource use explosion The sociometabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one order of magnitude during the last century: Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (extraction of primary materials annually). Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES, commercial energy only). Land use: from 25 mio km2 cropland to 50 mio km2 Definition: sociometabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material or primary energy input of a socio-economic system, measured according to established standards of MEFA analysis. For land use, no standard measure of scale is defined. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

sociometabolic scale: Global commercial energy supply 1900-2005 resource use sociometabolic scale: Global commercial energy supply 1900-2005 Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

Metabolic scale: Global materials use 1900 to 2005 resource use Metabolic scale: Global materials use 1900 to 2005 Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

Composition of Global materials use 1900 to 2005: mineralization resource use Composition of Global materials use 1900 to 2005: mineralization Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

Global land-use change 1700-2000 Biome 300 data resource use Global land-use change 1700-2000 Biome 300 data 1990 Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Klein Goldewijk 2001

drivers Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density Population numbers Rising income (GDP) “Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime. Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Global sociometabolic rates doubled drivers Global sociometabolic rates doubled Population is the strongest driver of resource use. On top of it, resource use per human inhabitant of the earth has been more than doubling during the 20th century, and is accelerating since. materials use per capita: was about 4,6 tons by the beginning and is by 8 tons at the end of the century; global energy use per capita: was about 30 Gigajoule. By the end of the century, it was 75 Gigajoule. Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a socio-economic system divided by its population number = annual material / energy use per capita. It represents the biophysical burden associated to an average individual. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

drivers sociometabolic rates: Transitions between stable levels across 20th century Materials Energy Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

drivers Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density Population numbers Rising income (GDP) “Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime. Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

drivers Metabolic rate (materials) and income: loglinear relation, no sign of a “Kuznets curve” R2 = 0.64 N = 175 countries Year 2000 Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

Global metabolic rates grow slower than income („decoupling“) drivers Global metabolic rates grow slower than income („decoupling“) Global DMC, t/cap/yr (left axis) Global TPES, GJ/cap/yr (left axis) Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis) Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009

drivers Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density Population numbers Rising income (GDP) “Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime. Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

drivers If we wish to link resource use to „development“, we need a wider energy concept The key energy base for agrarian societies is biomass for nutrition of humans and animals from land (solar based). To understand the development from the agrarian to the industrial regime, we need to account for the energetic base of nutrition in addition to the modern concept of commercial primary energy (TPES) In analogue to system wide material flows, the following figures account for system wide (primary) energy flows. They show „development“ to be a transition in energy source from solar (biomass) to fossil fuels. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 See Haberl 2001

Share of energy sources in primary energy consumption (% DEC) drivers the agrarian - industrial transition: from biomass to fossil fuels in the UK, 1700-2000 Share of energy sources in primary energy consumption (% DEC) biomass coal Oil / gas / nuc Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Social Ecology Data Base

the energy transition 1700-2000 - latecomers drivers the energy transition 1700-2000 - latecomers UK Austria Share of energy sources in primary energy consumption (% DEC) Japan Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Social Ecology Data Base

drivers The Great Transformation: Reduction of agricultural population, and gain in income 1600-2000 United Kingdom Austria Japan Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Maddison 2002, Social Ecology DB

drivers Metabolic rates of the agrarian and industrial regime transition = explosion MFK has already introduced the hypothesis of the metabolic transition. A hypothesis derived from empirical evidence which suggests, that industrialization leads to fundamental changes in structure and size of social metabolism. The core aspects are: Trnasformation of the energy system The role of land use within the energy system changes (from energy source to sink) And a new level of material and energy consumption is reached: population grows and with population material and energy use grows, in a second phase also per capita consumption grows. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Krausmann et al. 2008

drivers Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density Population numbers Rising income (GDP) “Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime. Human settlement patterns: population density as constraint for resource use Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

drivers Resource consumption per capita by development status and population density Share of world population 13% 6% 62% industrial developing Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010 Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000

Resumé: Drivers of resource consumption, good news and bad news Resource consumption is driven by population growth, development (metabolic regime transition), rising income, and constrained by population density Population density works as a constraint because of lack of space for extended extraction processes (such as mining) and waste deposition, and because pollution from resource extraction and use directly harms people But also: high density living allows material well being at much lower energy and material cost. This is mainly due to better capacity utilization of infrastructure, if well designed. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

transitions Message 3: sociometabolic regimes and transitions in the 20th Century 1. Coal based regime of industrialization (coal, steam engine, railways, dominated by GB) phasing out ~ 1930 2. Oil based regime (oil, cars, electricity, Fordism, American Way of Life, US dominated) phasing out ~ 1973 3. Next regime (solar based? knowledge? information?) not yet phasing in, latency situation Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Phases of global resource use dynamics transitions Phases of global resource use dynamics 2000 1973 Materials 1930 Energy BUBBLE coal based oil based Latency Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009

transitions material metabolic rates 1935 – 2005 not synchronized: very different depending on development status USA EU15 JAPAN 1973 1973 Construction min. Ind. min. & ores Fossil fuels biomass WORLD BRAZIL INDIA 1973 Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Sources: USA: Gierlinger 2009, EU-15: Eurostat Database, Japan: Japan Ministry of the Enivronment 2007, Brazil: Mayer 2009, India: Lanz 2009, World: Krausmann et. al. 2009

Notable trends in material resource use transitions Notable trends in material resource use Apparently, since the first oil crisis in 1973, all major industrial countries have stabilized their resource use / capita (metabolic rates), although at different levels Japan has managed to lower its material use rates in the past 15 years through well designed policies by ~30% Many developing countries have started increasing their metabolic rates; some very large countries (China, India) have only recently gained momentum, some countries (esp. in Africa) have not yet started Despite an expected slowdown in population growth, these trends lead to an explosive rise in global resource demand Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Three forced future scenarios of resource use transitions Three forced future scenarios of resource use Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates incompatible with IPCC climate protection targets Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up compatible with moderate IPCC climate protection targets Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates compatible with strict IPCC climate protection targets Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development transitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

Projections of resource use up to 2050 – three forced future scenarios transitions Projections of resource use up to 2050 – three forced future scenarios Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap) Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

Scenario 1: Freeze and catching up transitions Scenario 1: Freeze and catching up By 2050, this scenario results in a global metabolic scale of 140 billion tons annually, and an average global metabolic rate of 16 tons / cap. In relation to the year 2000, this would imply more than a tripling of annual global resource extraction, and establish global metabolic rates that correspond to the present European average. Average per capita carbon emissions would triple to 3.2 tons/cap and global emissions would more than quadruple to 28.8 GtC/yr. This scenario represents an extremely unsustainable future in terms of both resource use and emissions, exceeding all possible measures of environmental limits. Its emissions are higher than the highest scenarios in the IPCC SRES (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000), but since the IPCC scenarios have already been outpaced by the evolution since 2000 (Raupach et al. 2007), it might in fact be closer to the real trend. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Scenario 2: Factor 2 and catching up transitions Scenario 2: Factor 2 and catching up By 2050, this scenario amounts to a global metabolic scale of 70 billion tons, which means about 40% more annual resource extraction than in the year 2000. The average global metabolic rate would stay roughly the same as in 2000, at 8 tons / cap. The average CO2 emissions per capita would increase by almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita, and global emissions would more than double to 14.4 GtC. Taken as a whole, this would be a scenario of friendly moderation: while overall constraints (e.g. food supply) are not transgressed in a severe way beyond what they are now, developing countries have the chance for a rising share in global resources, and for some absolute increase in resource use, while industrial countries have to cut on their overconsumption. Its carbon emissions correspond to the middle of the range of IPCC SRES climate scenarios. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Scenario 3: Freeze global material use transitions Scenario 3: Freeze global material use By 2050, this scenario amounts to a global metabolic scale of 50 billion tons (the same as in the year 2000) and allows for an average global metabolic rate of only 6 tons /cap (equal, for example, to that of India in the year 2000). The average per capita carbon emissions would be reduced by roughly 40% to 0.75 tons/cap – global emissions obviously would remain constant at the 2000 level of 6.7 GtC/yr. Taken as a whole, this would be a scenario of tough restraint. Even in this scenario the global ecological footprint of the human population on earth would exceed global biocapacity (unless substantial efficiency gains and reductions in carbon emissions would make it drop), but the pressure on the environment, despite a larger world population, would be roughly the same as it is now. The carbon emissions correspond approximately to the lowest range of scenario B1 of the IPCC SRES, but are still 20% above the roughly 5.5 GtC/yr advocated by the Global Commons Institute for contraction and convergence in emissions (GCI 2003). Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

decoupling Message 4: Relative decoupling is business as usual and drives growth; absolute decoupling happens rarely and so far only at low rates of economic growth decoupling human wellbeing Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

decoupling European Union: material de-growth (=absolute decoupling) only at low economic growth rates EU15 EU27 Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010 Source: Social Ecology DB; averages 2000-2005

human wellbeing Message 5: a new transition, to a sustainable industrial metabolism, should be directed at human wellbeing! And YES, WE CAN! Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Evtl. preston folie einfügen! human wellbeing Life expectancy at birth in relation to national income: In 1960, for same life expectancy less than half the income is required than in 1930! Evtl. preston folie einfügen! Source: Preston 1975 (2008) Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

Human development vs. Carbon emissions human wellbeing Human development vs. Carbon emissions HDI R2 = 0,75 – 0,85 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 Source: Steinberger & Roberts 2009 Carbon emissions Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010

References Samuel H. Preston (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Reprinted in: Int.J.Epidemiol. 36 (3):484-490, 2007. Julia K. Steinberger and J. Timmons Roberts. Decoupling energy and carbon from human needs. Ecological Economics: submitted, 2010. UNEP Decoupling report: Decoupling and Sustainable Resource Management: Scoping the challenges. Lead authors M.Swilling & M.Fischer-Kowalski, to be issued Paris 2010 Fridolin Krausmann, Simone Gingrich, Nina Eisenmenger, Karl-Heinz Erb, Helmut Haberl, and Marina Fischer-Kowalski. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century. Ecological Economics 68 (10):2696-2705, 2009. Klein Goldewijk, K. 2001. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2):417-433 Fridolin Krausmann, Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Heinz Schandl, and Nina Eisenmenger. The global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12 (5/6):637-656, 2008. Fischer-Kowalski | UN Rio 20+ | 5-2010