Carbon Emissions

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration Atmospheric increase = Emissions from fossil fuels + Net emissions from changes in land use - Oceanic uptake - Terrestrial sinks

 Humans emit 24 billion tons per year.  60% stays in atmosphere  Increases atmospheric CO 2 by 0.4% / year.  25% increase from 280 ppm to 350 ppm Atmospheric CO 2

CO2  550 ppm to 1000 ppm in 2100

Temperature Increase: 1.5 o C – 6 o C by 2100

Adaptation and Mitigation

What are some adaptation steps?  Protect endangered species with larger refuges.  Avoid flooding risks.  Protect water supplies.  Protect grasslands and agricultural lands against overuse.

Mitigation  Protection of rainforests and other CO2 sinks.  Techniques to sequester CO2  Reduce CO2 emissions by reducing fossil fuel consumption

Mitigation: Carbon Sequestration

Mitigation: Reduce Fossil Fuel Emission We will address this issue in the remainder of the course.

Carbon Emission Coefficient (Million Metric Tons of Carbon/QBtu) Coal26 Oil19 Natural Gas14

Global Carbon Emission  Global Carbon Emission of C in the form of CO2: 6.6 billion metric tons  Convert to CO2: 44/12 x 6.6 billion metric tons = 24 billion metric tons

Calculate US Carbon Emissions US Carbon Emission = 26 MMT/QBtu x 22 QBtu + 19 MMT/QBtu x 38 Qbtu + 14 MMT/QBtu x 23 QBtu = 1.6 Billion Metric Tons

Calculate US Carbon Emissions US / Global = 1.6 BMT / 6.6 BMT = 24 % The US emits 24% of Global CO2.

Kyoto Protocol

Greenhouse Gases  The relative contribution of the major GHG to global warming are shown below: –CO284% –CH49% –N2O5%

CO2 emissions are associated with consumption of Fossil Fuels  US CO2 emissions are 24% of global emissions. –Global: 24,500 million tons –US: 5,800 million tons

Global CO2 emissions are increasing rapidly

The Kyoto Protocol is an International Treaty to Reduce GHG emission  Organized by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change  Adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan  Will come into force early in 2005.

Annex I countries have a crucial role.  Between reduce their GHG emissions by 5% below 1990 levels.  Different countries would have different targets.  US had agreed to reduce by 7% below 1990 levels.  Countries may offset emissions by increasing sinks.

Annex I Countries  24 developed countries (OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)  European Union  14 countries with economies in transition. (e.g. Croatia)

Kyoto Treaty Ratification  127 parties have signed it.  Countries accounting for 55% of CO2 emissions in 1990 had to sign it for it to come into effect.  When Russia ratified it, the signatories represented 61% of 1990 emissions.  The US has not signed the treaty.

Developing Nations  Obligated to reduce GHG emissions.  Do not have specific emission reduction targets.  Treaty has provisions to help LDC reduce GHG emissions.

Innovative Mechanisms: Joint Implementation  An Annex I party develops a project that decreases emissions or increases sinks in another Annex I party.

Innovative Mechanisms: Clean Development Mechanism  An Annex I party implements CO2 sequestration or emission reduction projects in a non- Annex I party (e.g. reforestation in Costa Rica) and receives credits to meet its own targets.

Innovative Mechanisms: Emissions Trading  An Annex I party transfers some of its emissions to another country for a price. This process allows the free market to operate to reduce the cost of emissions reduction. Companies that broker deals already exist.

Why didn’t the US ratify Kyoto?  US energy-related CO2 emissions in 2010 are projected to be 34 percent above the 1990 level.  Emission reduction policy to reduce emissions would have significant impacts on the US economy.  No emission targets for China & India

What steps could the US take to reduce CO2 emissions?  We will look at this question in detail during the remainder of the semester.