600,000 Year Ice Core Correlations of CO2 and Temperature Bill Scott Lyncean Group, Feb 24, 2010

Purpose Present the remarkable data correlation between temperature and greenhouse gasses. Briefly discuss the feedbacks that could be causing this correlation. Express my skepticism of fully understanding this equilibrium. Relate to the risk of continuing our reliance on fossil fuels.

 O18 as Temperature Proxy O18 heavier by 2 neutrons – O18 is about 0.2% of O16 – O18 needs more energy to evaporate Higher average ocean temperature increases O18 in air And increases O18 in all precipitation – Measurable in layers of ice cores to 800,000 years – Measurable in limestone to 2 billion years CO2 data are independent measurements of gas trapped in bubbles in the ice layers – Independent correlated data are important

Vostok Ice Core, Methane also correlated Nature, Vol.388, p.431, 3 June 1999, Maccabee Lyncean

Feedbacks CO2, CH4, and  O18 Greenhouse effect – CO2 and CH4 trap heat by transmitting sun’s energy, but absorbing earth reradiated energy – CO2 and CH4 increase temperature Evaporation effect – Increased temperature evaporates CO2 from the ocean Biological effects – Temperature increases plant and animal life Plants convert CO2 to O2 Animals convert O2 to CO2 and methane Death produces methane

Conclusions Correlation of CO2 and  O18 is significant and important. It should not be discounted. – Even though correlation doesn’t prove causality, it suggests feedbacks that are in equilibrium – Greenhouse effect doesn’t explain the methane correlation Three or multi way correlations are more complicated Perhaps uncalculable – Biological and evaporation effects may be as or more significant than the greenhouse effect Deforestation and desertification may be as or more important than fossil fuel consumption.

Our fossil fuel consumption is a risk Adding CO2 disrupts the equilibrium – Past performance is no surety of the future – But temperature increase would be a good bet Other risks – Pollutants – Economics Benefits of cheap energy vs the cost of our cash flow – When do we deplete our fossil energy?