The Impact of Population Growth on CO2 Emissions: An Empirical Analysis Presented by GÖKHAN ÜNLÜ

OUTLINE  INTRODUCTION  ECONOMIC REASONS BEHIND CO2 EMISSIONS  ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS  POLICY IMPLICATIONS  CONCLUSIONS

The aim,importance and expected outcome of the study  The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between population growth and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in thousand metric tons and human impact on CO2.  Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the earth and it is well known as a greenhouse gas due to global warming. Greenhouse gases hold the sun’s radiation in the atmosphere and regulates the temperature of the world  Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 percent between 1970 and  Atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range over the last years. Global increases in CO2 are due to primarily to fosil fuel use.  Our world has been experiencing a rapid increase of CO2 emissions while underdeveloped countries are becoming richer and increasing population size; however, rich countries are unable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  Increasing world population puts pressure on natural resources and increases the demand for energy in the forms of transportation, power, industry, deforestation  Expected finding of this study is to indicate a close and strong relationship between population growth and CO2 emissions

Economic Reasons Behind CO2  Market failures examined in this study: Externality// This decision not only affects the parents but also affects the society as a whole. Externality// This decision not only affects the parents but also affects the society as a whole. Public good// clean nature and clean air Public good// clean nature and clean air Sustainable development// future generations vs rapid population growth Sustainable development// future generations vs rapid population growth

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS  In the model eight countries from different continents have been selected in order to evaluate the different locations around the world in terms of their economic activities(developed or developing), population growth patterns and energy consumption given a 25 year period ( )  From Americas; USA  From Europe ; Turkey, Spain  From Asia; India,  From Africa; South Africa, Egypt, Morocco  From Australia: Australia

THE REGRESSION lnCO2 = β1 + β2 lnpopulation + β3 ln gdp + β4 ln oil + ui   lnCO2:The percentage change in CO2 emissions in thousand metric tons   lnpopulation: The percentage change in population   lngdp: The percentage change in GDP   lnoil: The percentage change in total oil consumption   β1 : The intercept term of the model.   β2 : The elasticity of population   β3 : The elasticity of GDP   β4 : The elasticity of oil consumption   ui : Error term

ECONOMETRIC RESULTS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ***p<0.01 **p<0.05 *p<0.10

ECONOMETRIC RESULTS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ***p<0.01 **p<0.05 *p<0.10

POLICY IMPLICATIONS  The United States causing 25 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions, refuses to ratify the Kyoto protocol to reduce greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide,, which forces industrialised nations to decline emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels by  A carbon price is a way of recognising the true cost of emitting. It is the best possible way of allocating that cost because it allows governments to set a practical limit to carbon output and allows the market mechanism to sort out the best way to allocate that limited right  In a study of Frank Jöst and Martin Quaas, they examine the external effects of parents’ decision on number newly born children on emissions and they discuss a Pigouvian tax on emissions and taxes on population.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS  Renewable energy sources such as hydropower, solar, wind and bionergy should be preferred instead of fosil fuels  We should increase the use of fuel efficient vehicles and prefer rail and public transport system to road transport. For close distances we can try cycling and walking. In buildings efficient lighting, solar heating and cooling must be maintained.  What human can do in this process is changing our lifestyle and behaviours, at least starting from using public transport.

PROJECTION OF POPULATION GROWTH (Million)

Can you ignore the human influence?...

CONCLUSIONS  We carried out an analysis to investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions and population growth by adding determinants of gross domestic product and oil consumption into the model. We used the data of eight countries which are separated with respect to their economic development levels during the period  We conclude that the population coefficients of developed countries are greater than the coefficients of developing countries. In other words, the impact of population growth on CO2 emissions in developing countries are much higher than the developed countries according to the findings of this study