University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives Carey King, Ph.D. Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy Jackson School of Geological Sciences

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 2 February 23, 2011 Value of university research is freedom to look ahead Universities can spend time on the long-range problems Funding from multiple sources (federal, state, industry, NGO) helps to ensure objectivity and longevity Train future critical thinkers Study pure science  integrated systems

Technology and Systems viewpoints: Oil case

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 4 February 23, US DOE Poster

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 5 February 23, 2011 Solutions are needed on global scale (e.g. peak oil) Source:

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 6 February 23, 2011 Energy Return On (energy) Investment (EROI) tells us about energy quality & technology “Energy gain has implications beyond mere accounting. It fundamentally influences the structure and organization of living systems, including human societies.” (Tainter, Allen et al. 2003) EROI measures the battle between resource depletion and technological advancement EROI = E output / E input

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 7 February 23, 2011 Spindletop, Beaumont Texas, million barrels a year from a trivial investment. Courtesy of C. A. S. Hall /spindletop/spindletop.html

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 8 February 23, 2011 Today: Thunder Horse platform produced ~ 70 million barrels in 2009 – but investment is huge

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 9 February 23, 2011 King, C. W. (2010) Environmental Research Letters.

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 10 February 23, 2011 EIA, Annual Energy Review (2008). 2008

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 11 February 23, 2011 Future oil supplies are more expensive: lower EROI (quality) = higher price Oil Sands Oil Shale Historical Range Recent Range

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 12 February 23, 2011 Biofuels AND fossil alternatives (oil sands, oil shale) have challenges

Texas energy consumption and emissions

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 14 February 23, 2011 Understand Texas economy & emissions January 29, 2009 a TX Legislator suggested … –~ ‘UK, and world, should follow Texas’ lead in reducing CO 2 emissions with growing economy’ From : TX GSP up 16.5%, CO 2 down 4.4% US Total a TX Total b US Industrial c TX Industrial b TX Natural Gas b , , , , % change 2000 to %-4.4 %-6.4 %-17.6 %-20.5 % MtCO 2 /yr Data from Energy Information Administration: a: Hhttp:// b: Hhttp:// c: Hhttp://

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 15 February 23, 2011 Emissions drop in TX almost exclusively from drop in natural gas consumption

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 16 February 23, 2011 Natural gas drop almost entirely due to industrial sector; electricity CO 2 held constant

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 17 February 23, 2011 Increase in price of natural gas was main driver for downturn in Texas’ CO 2 emissions

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 18 February 23, 2011 Federal and state policies have been successful for Texas wind Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Wind

Need tools/documents for people to learn energy tradeoffs for themselves

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 20 February 23, 2011 We need comparison of energy alternatives side-by- side using many metrics King & Webber (2008). Env. Sci. & Tech. 42 (21), Conventional Fossil Fuels Gasoline Diesel CNG Unconventional Fossil Fuels Coal F-T Diesel NG F-T Diesel Gasoline – Shale Oil Gasoline – Tar Sands EV/PHEV Electrolysis Wind/PV Solar Wind/PV Solar US Grid Electrolysis US Grid Methane Reforming H 2 Fuel Cells Irrigated Corn E85 grain Non-irrigated Irrigated Non-irrigated Corn E85 Soy Biodiesel stover grain & stover grain stover grain & stover

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 21 February 23, 2011 Interactive tools allow for discussion of alternatives using baseline data Thanks to Power Across Texas

Carey King Texas Energy Independence Forum 22 February 23, 2011 Value universities for creating information from data Partners in providing information for policy and decision-making Objective and transparent (as possible!) tools for comparison of options Relate technical and physical constraints to energy end use Educate students to be critical thinkers

Carey King Thank You WEBBER ENERGY GROUP Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy