Sustainable Urban Public Transport: CO2 emissions reductions and related benefits D. NAVIZET, TONGJI UNIVERSITY SHANGHAI, Nov. 2008

1.The relevance of urban public transport for AFD in China 2.Qualitative approaches to CO2 reduction in the urban transport sector 3.Quantitative approaches to CO2 reduction in the urban transport sector 4.Conclusions Sustainable Urban Public Transport: CO 2 emissions reductions & co-benefits

1. AFD and Urban Transport in China Agence Française de Développement Public industrial and commercial firm held by the French government. 1,300 staff, offices in 45+ countries, active in 60+ countries Core business: Financing Sustainable Development Approved financing in 2006 : EUR 3.1 Billions TOTAL Approved financing in 2007 : EUR 3.3 Billions TOTAL To be approved financing in 2008: EUR 4+ Billions TOTAL Until 2004: Economic development and Poverty alleviation Since 2005: Fight against Climate Change

AFD in China Financing Climate Change Mitigation 1. In accordance with China’s national action plan against climate change 2. Financing, energy saving, CO2 emissions reduction projects 3. Trying to promote Sino-French partnerships Concessional Loan Financing: Around EUR 500 millions since 2005 In 2008: EUR 150 millions for reconstruction in Sichuan and energy efficiency EUR 80 millions for railways construction Four Broad Areas for Project Financing: Low-Carbon Power Production Sustainable Urban Development Sustainable Rural Development Energy Efficiency in Industry and Services

Relevance of Urban Transportation Energy & Climate Change The bulk of CO 2 emissions takes place in cities: Urban activities consume up to 75% of fossil energy (Industry, Transport, Buildings…) The share of transport is rising faster than any other while its efficiency is deteriorating Cities are growing at a very fast rate Not new, but numbers are adding up We’re seeing the limits of all out development Cities are vulnerable to global issues If they have planned to rely on abundant resources Climate change can have dramatic consequences on cities

Urbanization in China 45% of urban people today 75% of urban people in 2050? Today: 750 millions non urban people Around 300 millions new urban people by 2025

2. Qualitative approaches to CO2 emissions reductions in urban transport The way in which cities develop has a structuring effect on their consumption of resources in the long run Challenges are not only technical and sector challenges City planners have a profound influence on a city’s efficiency

How to achieve significant CO 2 emissions reductions Increase PT modal share Manage & Reduce demand Provide Efficient Transport Technology & Ressources Time & Cost CO2 Emissions Reductions WITHOUT GOOD PLANNING AND POLICIES

How to achieve significant CO 2 emissions reductions Increase PT modal share Manage & Reduce demand Provide Efficient Transport Technology & Resources Time & Cost CO2 Emissions Reductions WITH GOOD PLANNING AND POLICIES

How to achieve significant CO 2 emissions reductions CO2 reductions must be: efficient, cost effective, timely Policy options sometimes matter more than technical options Business as usual Technology Policy

Co-benefits Carefull planning which aims at minimizing energy consumption most of the time results in significant co-benefits ECONOMICAL, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL COBENEFITS 1.Capital savings. 2.Savings can either be used to expand coverage of service or invest in other sectors. 3.Less pollution, better environment. 4.Less pollution, better health for all. 5.Of course: less CO2 emissions

Financing Climate Change Mitigation in the Urban Transportation Sector in China AFD’s approach: In the framework of the Sino French bilateral agreement on Sustainable Urban Development. 1.Promote Energy and Climate Awareness in city planning 2.Promote Public Transport 3.Include Energy and Carbon Balance in projects appraisals 4.Foster Sino French partnerships 5.Provide Financial resources AFD’s On-going Activities in Urban Transportation: 1.Comprehensive Transportation Plan in Guiyang 2.Energy, City planning, Buildings and Transport with CCICED

3. Quantitative approaches to CO2 emissions reductions in urban transport Quantifying CO2 reductions in urban transport is very difficult The alternate scenario is hard to define. Urban transport is a complex system. Transport demand forecast are sometimes inaccurate. Difference between absolute and relative CO 2 reduction Energy saving and CO2 saving is different Carbon credits in public urban transport… So far only one project methodology was approved Without good policy and planning, the costs of CO 2 reduction is much higher than carbon prices…

Quantifying CO2 emissions reductions What we can say… Must also take account of construction emissions Always possible to estimate the order of magnitude of energy savings and CO2 emissions. The rest is uncertain. Impact of modal switch: 1% switch from private cars to public transport => 1MtCO2 avoided over 20 years for the 10M travels/day scenario. => Entails a part of absolute reductions. In best cases such as Bogota transmillenio, the order of magnitude is 100,000 tCO2 per year. Impact of fuel switch: to be computed carefully, with well to tank analysis (e.g. electricity, natural gas), => Usually high relative reductions, but growth negates absolute reductions. Impact of mass transit mode…

There is considerable literature comparing MRT, LRT, BRT… Very similar energy and CO2 savings. Order of magnitude ranges from 10,000 to 100,000 tCO2 per year. Wide range of capital costs, capacity, implementation time… LRT

So what about BRT? When needed capacity can be accomodated by BRT Low investment costs: economical viability More coverage for the same investment Fast implementation and Operational flexibility Adequate for cities with large roads (such as in China) Structuring power and policy tool However, must not be considered as a temporary solution, to be discarded when a MRT can be built. Must be part of an overall transport plan: Integrated with other modes: bus, walking, cycling… metro. Make use of information systems to provide high level of service: reliability, confort, safety.  Will yield maximum energy and CO2 reductions per invested capital  Will yield roughly as much energy and CO2 reductions as heavier modes

Financing Climate Change Mitigation in the Urban Transportation Sector in China AFD’s approach for public transport projects 1.Project must be part of an overall transport strategy 2.No unique technical solution 3.Start from reliable, reasonable transport demand forecast 4.Include Energy and Carbon Balance in projects appraisals 5.Projects must yield CO2 reduction 6.Always seek co-benefits 7.Foster Sino French partnerships 8.Provide Financial resources

4. CONCLUSIONS 1.Promote integrated, energy and climate aware city planning 2.Promote public transport policy packages rather than focus on only one stand-alone technical option or mode 3.Only in this way can there be realistic quantification of energy and CO2 emissions reductions. 4.Then the capital cost of one ton of CO2 saved can be reduced to be in line with the carbon market prices Financing CO2 emissions reduction in Sustainable Urban Transport in China