Global Change Research in Belgium Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Hamburg, Germany

An enigma from the ice… Antarctic record of temperature, CO 2 and CH 4 The only place this much carbon can “hide” during the ice ages is in the ocean  strong coupling between climate and marine carbon cycle Methane comes mostly from wetlands  strong coupling between climate and terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle

… pointing into an uncertain future… History shows that physical climate, ocean dynamics, and terrestrial ecosystems are a strongly linked system. In the last 150 years, we have introduced massive perturbations in some of the forcing variables --- How will the system respond??? ?

The Earth System

The Earth: A Complex Dynamical System In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.

The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme IGBP IGBP provides scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth. Specifically IGBP studies the interactions between biological, physical, and chemical processes, and human systems. It collaborates with other programmes to provide the knowledge necessary to respond to environmental change.

IGBP Projects Atmosphere: IGAC Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC Land: GLP Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS Land-Ocean: LOICZ Integration: PAGES and AIMES AIMES GLP

Health

Challenges for the Future CLIMATE (Gas-phase) CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS AEROSOLSGREENHOUSE GASES Greenhouse Effect CO 2 Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources CH 4, O 3, N 2 O, CFC Human Emissions Human Emissions Human Emissions Land-use Change, Fires Oxidants: OH, H 2 O 2 HO 2,O 3 Fires: soot Mineral dust Biogenic Emissions:CH 4,DMS,VOC’s Dry deposition: stomatal conductance N deposition 0 3, UV radiation The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks LAND WATER / CITIES Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat Heat island effect Based on P. Cox, 2004

Carbon and Climate

ECHAM5 T63L31 JSBACH MPI-OM CO2 transport C transport THC upwelling export production CO2 emissions 2300 GtC 610 GtC GtC HAMOCC interface albedo photosynthesis stomatal conductance phenology carbon pools soil, hydrological and energy balance

CO2 acts on radiation, stomata and photosynthesis (with climate feedback) CO2 acts on stomata and photosynthesis, but not on radiation (no climate feedback) CO2 ppm Atmospheric CO2 concentration (global and annual mean) year 80 ppm

positive feedback negative feedback Difference in carbon uptake between experiments (with minus without carbon cycle - climate feedback) [kgC / m 2 ] 2100

Feedback Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 Difference C4MIP (IGBP/AIMES)

Air Quality and Climate Change

Climate Response to Potential Improvement in Air Quality In blue: GHG unchanged after year 2000 (commitment experiment). In Red: GHG unchanged and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols removed after year 2000 (sensitivity experiment). (K) (%)

Response in Temperature and Precipitation (30 year average) Temperature increase larger than 1K over the continents, larger than 4K in the Arctic. Temperature and precipitation changes bear some resemblance with greenhouse warming experiments A significant increase in precipitation is found in Eastern Pacific, suggesting an El-Nino like change in the mean climate state.

Global Change and the Social System

Earth System Model Human perturbation Human impact Including Social feedbacks

Earth System Model Human perturbation Human impact Land use Water use Energy production and consumption Population growth Economic growth Structure of the economy Human health Including Social feedbacks

Challenges for the Future Earth system science should contribute to the themes that will drive fundamental research in the 21 st century: Interfaces between the micro- and the macro-worlds Interfaces between the living and the dead nature Interfaces between nature and culture

Thank You

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Atmosphere Models Ocean Models Land Surface Models Terrestrial Biosphere Models Solid Earth Models Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemistry Water Cycle The Earth System Unifying the Models The Predictive Earth System MegaflopsGigaflopsTeraflopsPetaflops Natural Hazard Prediction Hydrolog y Process Models Climate / Weather Models Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems