Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agriculture Daniel J. Archambault Research Scientist Alberta Research Council February 25 th,2003

Alberta Research Council Inc. Subsidiary of the Alberta Science and Research Authority Not-for-profit corporation Research and Development Technology commercialization Fee-for-service

Integrated Resource Management Division Natural resource management Technologies for sustainable development Environmental Technologies Business Unit Adaptation / Biofixation Program Greenhouse Gas Strategic Initiative

Effects of Agriculture on the Environment Greenhouse gas emissions – climate change Run-off of nutrients – eutrophication Pollution – pesticides

Vulnerabilities of Agriculture to Climate Change Research and Development –Effects of climate change on pests –Effects on pesticide efficacy –Drought tolerance and water use efficiency –Cultivation practices Technology Commercialization –Drought tolerant varieties –Green manuring –Integrated fertility approaches –Renewable biofuels and agrifibres

Climate Change Potential impacts on agricultural crops – Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate – Government of Canada (Oct 2002)

Climate Change Severe weather Drought / Flooding Elevated temperatures (Global warming) Elevated CO 2 Length of growing season

Climate Change - Drought Vegreville

Climate Change - Drought Precipitation in Vegreville in 2002: 400mm below normal –Barley yields were decreased by as much as 50% –Affects field research

Climate Change - Drought Effects on crops

Decreased germination Decreased biomass and yield Pre-mature aging Poor quality

Climate Change - Drought Adaptation options More extensive irrigation –On-farm water management –Increased efficiency of irrigation systems But…water may become limiting Drought tolerant varieties Improved water use efficiency New, drought tolerant crops

Climate Change - Global Warming Precipitation and temperature effects on weeds Tropical and warm temperate annuals could move north if length of growing season increases (Patterson et al. 1999) Range expansion of weeds into higher latitudes might accelerate (Patterson 1993; Raham and Wardle 1990) USA estimates 17% crop loss per 1 o C temperature increase in corn and soybean (Lobell and Asner 2003)

Elevated CO 2 Biomass production

Elevated CO 2 Herbicide efficacy

Elevated CO 2 Weed / crop competition In the absence of competition from a crop, wild oats biomass increased by 55% In the presence of barley, no increase in biomass of wild oats (Archambault et al. 2000)

Climate Change – Elevated CO 2 Adaptation options Increased rates of pesticides New pesticides New pest control technologies: biologicals Changes in agricultural practices: rotations, cultivation…

Elevated CO 2 Plant nutrition – nutritional value Elevated CO 2 can increase crop yields Decreases in nutritional value may also occur Crop fertility may need to be adjusted Effects on weeds? Weed / crop competition? Weed competition might eliminate yield- enhancing effects of fertilization

Adaptation Initiatives Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF; 1998) –Science, Impacts and Adaptation: Natural Resources Canada ($15M) –Impacts and adaptation research –Development of adaptation strategies Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC; 2000) –Established through funds form CCAF –4 agricultural research projects Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network – Agriculture (C-CIARN-Agriculture; 2001) –Supported by CCAF –Build a network to promote and facilitate research on climate impacts, vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation

Recommendations Several vulnerabilities of agriculture to climate change have been and continue to be identified, technology development must now become a major initiative Creation of an Agricultural Adaptation Centre focused on technology development Increased government investment in climate change R&D and adaptation technology development