Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Recent Historic Tornado Events Marc Kavinsky Senior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFO NWA 31 st Annual Meeting 14-19.

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Presentation transcript:

Synoptic/Meso-scale Comparison of Recent Historic Tornado Events Marc Kavinsky Senior Forecaster – Milwaukee/Sullivan WFO NWA 31 st Annual Meeting October October 2006 NOAA’s National Weather Service

Recent Historic Wisconsin Tornado Events 23 June June 2004 –5 th Largest Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History 17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s17 Tornadoes - 3 F3’s, 2 F2’s 1 death1 death 28.8 million damage28.8 million damage 18 August August 2005 –Worst Tornado Outbreak in Wisconsin History Wisconsin History 27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s27 Tornadoes – 1 F3, 2 F2’s New daily, monthly (27)New daily, monthly (27) New yearly record (62)New yearly record (62) »Previous yearly record was million damage43 million damage 1 death, 27 injuries1 death, 27 injuries

Supercell/Severe Wx Forecasting BL - 6 km Bulk Shear BL - 3 km Bulk Shear 40 kts and higher 30 kts and higher 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity 150 m2/s2 and higher Mean Layer Cape (MLCape) 1000 j/kg and higher Mid Level Lapse Rates/ WBZ/Freezing Lvl Height/ ThetaE Difference Indicators for hail and microbursts Boundaries Windshift, Density, Thermal Moderate to Strong Potential

F2-F5 Tornadic Supercell Forecasting 0-1 km Bulk Shear 20 kts or more Mean Layer LCL 1.2 km (3900 ft) or less 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity 100 m2/s2 or more Mean Layer CIN -50 j/kg or higher 0-3 km CAPE 60 j/kg or more 0-3 km Vorticity Generation Potential 0.30 or greater Mean Layer LFC <2 km (6500 ft) Strong Boundaries Moderate to Strong Potential

24 June panel 01z

24 June 2004 – 300 mb 01z

23 June 2004 Supercell Forecast km Bulk Shear ML Cape km SRH Surface Boundary 00z/24

23 June 2004 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast 0-3 km Cape km Bulk Shear <-50 >-50 MLCIN 0-3 km VGP MLLCL 00z/24

23 June Tornadoes F0-F1 F2 F3

19 August 2005 – 4 panel 00z

19 August 2005 – 250 mb 01z

18 August 2005 Supercell Forecast km Bulk Shear km SRH MLCape L z/18

18 August 2005 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast km Bulk Shear km Cape MLCINAll CIN greater than MLLCL km VGP 23z/18

18 August Tornadoes F0-F1 F2 F3

Conclusions… Remain aware of Near Storm Environment parameters and if time allows, perform hourly mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, TAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC Mesoanalysis Remain aware of Near Storm Environment parameters and if time allows, perform hourly mesoscale analysis using mesonet, RUC, TAMDAR, BUFkit, SPC Mesoanalysis Look for low level boundary interaction with axis of severe weather and strong tornado parameters Look for low level boundary interaction with axis of severe weather and strong tornado parameters

Acknowledgements Mark Gehring – Forecaster MKX Mark Gehring – Forecaster MKX SPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/Archive SPC/OAX – MesoAnalysis/Archive Bill Borghoff – graphics Bill Borghoff – graphics Jeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKX Jeff Craven – Science Operations Officer MKX

18 June 2006 – 4 Panel 21z

18 June 2006 – 4 Panel 18z

18 June 2006 – 300 mb 18z

18 June 2006 Supercell Forecast

18 June 2006 F2-F5 Tornado Forecast