Estimating Key Parameters for the Retail Plug-Load Portfolio (RPP) Program: Recommended Methodological Approaches EM&V, Residential Programs, Products.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Technologies for Demand Response: Enabling Efficiency and Prices to Devices Dr. Arshad Mansoor Vice President, Power Delivery & Utilization 2010 National.
Advertisements

Experience you can trust. Market Transformation Programs: What they are. How to evaluate them. Kansas Corporation Commission Mitchell Rosenberg, Vice President.
1 Kansas Corporation Commission Workshop on Energy Efficiency Quick Start Programs Sue Nathan Applied Energy Group, Inc.
1 Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for August 6, 2008.
Figures in Chapter 1. Learning objectives After studying this chapter, you should be able to; Define logistics and supply chain management. Describe logistics.
ENERGY VALUE. Summary  Operational Value is a primary component in the Net Market Value (NMV) calculation used to rank competing resources in the RPS.
Introduction Build and impact metric data provided by the SGIG recipients convey the type and extent of technology deployment, as well as its effect on.
Planning for Updates and Linkages to EM&V CALMAC February 17, 2004.
Residential Refrigerators and Freezers UES Measure Update Regional Technical Forum October 14, 2014.
Procuring Our Way to Compliance IEP 27 th Annual Meeting September 23, 2008 Fong Wan, PG&E.
October 8, 2013 Eric Fox and Mike Russo. AGENDA »Recent Sales and Customer Trends »Preliminary State Sales and Demand Forecast »Building a No DSM Forecast.
The Demand Forecast and Conservation Analysis Interface May PNREC Massoud Jourabchi & Tom Eckman.
Tutorial 10: Performing What-If Analyses
1 Retail Plug Load Portfolio (RPP) Work Paper Abstract Briefing for California Technical Forum Steve Blanc, Engineering Services Brian Smith, Evaluation,
Capacity Valuation.
Experience you can trust. Statewide Single-Family Rebate Program Evaluation: Lighting CALMAC/MAESTRO Meeting San Francisco, CA July 26, 2006 Tami Rasmussen.
Retail Plug-Load Portfolio (RPP) Addressing the Challenge of Estimating Small Energy Savings for Multiple Product Categories in a Cost-Effective Manner.
BASELINE POLICY FRAMEWORK Dina Mackin, CPUC Workshop on Energy Efficiency Baselines April 28, 2015 California Public Utilities Commission1.
Compare and Contrast ELCC Methodologies Across CPUC Proceedings
Estimating Energy Savings for a Midstream Program Design Targeting Plug Load Steve Blanc, Engineering Services Brian Smith, Evaluation, Measurement and.
1 Using Webcrawlers to Estimate Incremental Measure Costs for the Retail Plug-Load Portfolio (RPP) Program November 21, 2014.
1 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energyeere.energy.gov Measuring the Impact of Benchmarking & Transparency: Handbook of Methods and the NYC Example.
Evaluation of LIPA’s Efficiency Long Island & Renewable Technology Programs Presented to: LIPA Board of Trustees By: Bill Norton Chief.
Name the five marketing strategies that make up the marketing mix.
Review of 7th Plan Inputs by RTF August 11, 2014.
1 Using Bass Diffusion Models To Estimate Product-Specific Net-To-Gross Ratios for Market Transformation Programs November 13, 2014.
INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL AND LARGE COMMERCIAL (IALC) ROADMAP CUSTOM IMPACT EVALUATION WEBINAR TO PRESENT RESEARCH PLAN Presentation July 28, 2014.
Northwest Power and Conservation Council 6 th Plan Conservation Resource Supply Curve Workshop on Data & Assumption Overview of Council Resource Analysis.
1 EE Evaluation Report on 2009 Bridge Funding Period California Public Utilities Commission November 22, 2010 Energy Division Energy Efficiency Evaluation.
Energy Efficiency Program Costs Project No Rulemaking to Amend Energy Efficiency Rule June 30, 2010.
EDISON INTERNATIONAL® SM Internal Use Only Page 1 Circulating Block Heater Alfredo Gutierrez Cal TF Work Paper Presentation October 23, 2014.
Overview of the Regional Technical Forum Guidelines January 22, 2013.
Customer Enrollment: The Gateway to Electronic Billing Benefits Utility Payment Conference.
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Residential Integral LED Bulbs Part II presented to the Regional Technical Forum John Wilson,
Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Direct Use of Natural Gas Economic Fuel Choices from the Regional Power System and Consumer’s Perspective.
NAESB MEASUREMENT AND VERIFICATION MODEL BUSINESS PRACTICE RETAIL ELECTRIC DEMAND RESPONSE NARUC update 9/14/09.
California Energy Commission 2015 IEPR Self-Generation Forecast Sacramento, CA 7/07/2015 Asish Gautam Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division.
Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home Heat Pump Water Heaters Christian Douglass Regional Technical Forum 4/14/2015.
Refrigerator Decommissioning: Measure Status Update Regional Technical Forum October 16, 2013.
E NERGY S TAR ® Refrigerated Beverage Vending Machine Industry Meeting Rachel Schmeltz, US EPA Georgia World Congress Center October 22, 2002.
Professor Chip Besio Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University.
1 Northwest Energy Efficiency Taskforce Workgroup # 1 Measuring What Matters Looking ahead, what data must we have to succeed?
Strategic Planning for DSM in a Community-owned Utility Presented by Shu-Sun Kwan & Ed Arguello Colorado Springs Utilities 2005 APPA Engineering & Operations.
BPA M&V Protocols Overview of BPA M&V Protocols and Relationship to RTF Guidelines for Savings and Standard Savings Estimation Protocols.
Santee Cooper Encouraging Energy Efficiency APPA National Conference June 15, 2009.
Ben Chou NRDC Water Program Clothes Washer Recycling Work Paper Abstract California Technical Forum October 23, 2014.
Residential Lighting Study Proposal June 2012 PSE.
PAGE 1 Sustainable Buildings 2030 © 2008 THE WEIDT GROUP Building Energy Benchmarks THE WEIDT GROUP.
California’s Proposed DR Cost-Effectiveness Framework January 30, 2008.
Presentation to Energy Optimization Collaborative October 2015 ENERGY A Proposal to Expand the Calibration Research Agenda: Part Two.
The Australian Energy Regulator Expenditure Forecast Assessment Guideline Category analysis Connections and Customer Driven Works.
Guidelines Revisions Defining What RTF Means by “Savings” December 17,
Northwest Power and Conservation Council A Look At The Council’s Conservation Planning Methodology and Assumptions A Look At The Council’s Conservation.
Performance Consulting: Make Performance Your Business! (and Prove It)
Enabling Results: Monitoring and Evaluation in the U.S. ENERGY STAR Program September 28, 2012Ashley M. King Environment Officer.
Electric / Gas / Water Summary of Final Evaluation Report Prepared by: Rafael Friedmann, PG&E Kris Bradley & Christie Torok, Quantum Consulting 2003 Statewide.
Experience you can trust. NTG Estimation for California IOUs’ Upstream Lighting Program CALMAC Meeting Pacific Energy Center July 18, 2007 Tami.
Residential Refrigerator UES Measure Update Regional Technical Forum April 16, 2013.
1 Summary of Reviews: Workpapers Approved by the California Technical Forum Part 2 Meeting: California Technical Forum January 28, 2016 Jeff Hirsch/Kevin.
California Energy Commission 2015 IEPR Self-Generation Forecast Sacramento, CA 12/17/2015 Asish Gautam Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division.
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of BGE’s DSM Programs Marshall Keneipp, PE Summit Blue Consulting, LLC Prepared for: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Stakeholders.
Seagate Technology PLC Kyle Gesuelli. Which securities fit with the portfolio’s strategy and make sense in the current market? STX comprises largest loss.
Energy Efficiency as a Resource: What is the Cost of Saved Electricity? Charles Goldman Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Missouri Energy Policy Workshop.
LOS ANGELES DEPARTMENT OF WATER AND POWER ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDY Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) September 25, 2014.
Existing Condition Baseline Programs & Codes and Standards
Agenda » General Methodology » Approaches to Key Issues
Demand Estimation and Forecasting
Market Operations Engagement Group EVSE Working Group – Principles
Py2015 California statewide on-bill finance
2019 Potential and Goals Study Workshop
Presentation transcript:

Estimating Key Parameters for the Retail Plug-Load Portfolio (RPP) Program: Recommended Methodological Approaches EM&V, Residential Programs, Products and Channel Teams October 23, 2014

Today’s Agenda Our Objectives RPP Program Review General Estimation Principles Adapting Parameter Inputs for the E3 Calculator: Key Considerations for Market Transformation Proposed Methods to Estimate NTGRs, EULs, and IMCs Our Requests to the Cal TF

Our Objectives Present recommended approaches to estimate values for three key savings parameters for Cal TF approval: Net-to-gross ratios (NTGRs) Incremental measure costs (IMCs) Effective useful life (EUL) Present recommended approaches to adapt parameter inputs for use with E3 calculator for Cal TF approval Seek Cal TF approval for UEC estimation methodology (presented at last month’s meeting)

RPP Program Review Program Approach: Measures: Incentive Structure: Utilize retailer engagement to increase the demand and supply of more energy efficient appliance and consumer electronic products Measures: RPP offers a portfolio of consumer energy efficiency measures that are delivered through the retail channel partners Incentive Structure: Incentives are paid to participating retailers for each program-qualified product sold. Evaluation Framework: While this mid-stream program is primarily a market transformation program, it contains elements of a resource acquisition program.

RPP Logic Model

General Estimation Principles For products in DEER: Use EUL and IMC values found in DEER For products NOT in DEER: Use best available data for EUL and IMC estimates. NTGRs for resource acquisition programs: DEER values reflect 3-5 year timeframes, and are applicable to downstream resource acquisition programs. NTGRs for market transformation programs: DEER values are not applicable, NTGRs must be derived through other methods that involve long-term forecasting.

Adapting Inputs for the E3 Calculator: Market Transformation Considerations Gross Savings: The total of the stream of savings for all of the measures adoption forecasted over the projected initiative term times each measure’s EUL. TRC costs: Input the stream of administrative and incremental measure costs that match the time frame of the savings impacts. NTG Inputs: Use the ratio of forecast total market change minus the forecast of the baseline changes divided by the total market change for the same time period used for both the costs and savings.

Net-to-Gross Ratios (NTGRs) NTGRs represent net program load impacts divided by gross program load impacts. NTGR is sometimes used to convert gross measure costs to net measure costs. The relationship between program-driven and naturally-occurring adoptions evolves over the life of the program. This dynamic must be captured and entered into the B/C calculator. Hypothetical example

NTGRs: Our Recommendation Preferred: Estimate NTGRs over time using an analogic diffusion model For each product category, long-term forecasts over the life of the RPP Program can be used Scenarios (using the Bass diffusion model) with and without the RPP Program can be forecasted over the life of the program The resulting differences in these two scenarios represent the expected net impacts of the RPP The net impacts divided by the gross impacts yield the NTGRs Alternative: Use a Delphi panel Ideal but costly: Combine the two

Incremental Measure Cost (IMC) Incremental measure cost is defined as the difference in the cost of an efficient measure and a baseline measure attributable to the difference in efficiency. Methods must be developed to capture the fact that IMCs decline over the life of the program Historical trends of IMCs—traditionally observed to decline over time—will be reviewed for measures with characteristics similar to those in the RPP suite (e.g., CFLs, DVD-Rs, transistor radios, desktop PCs, laptop PCs, lower-volume laser printers, and multi-function devices). Declining IMCs must be entered into the B/C calculator over the life of the program.

Using Webcrawlers to obtain IMC information Many retail-focused webcrawlers track price trends for specific products, such as pricegrabber.com The IOU C&S team recently developed a custom webcrawler to determine IMC for residential lighting products. The webcrawler collected a wide range of product features, then the team conducted a multiple regression analysis to better understand how product features contribute to pricing. The team is considering expanding this approach to additional products

IMCs: Our Recommendation We recommend using webcrawlers to estimate IMC. For each product, we would identify key product features, including retail price and Energy Star qualification status. Using these data, we could then develop a regression analysis to estimate the incremental cost of an energy efficient product (hedonic price models) Data collection can be easily replicated to identify changes over time. Retailer price data also holds promise. Price data provided by retailers for each model sold along with key product characteristics could be used to estimate the IMC using hedonic price models Targeted in-store shelf surveys While they have very limited value, given that the RPP is based on a dynamic product mix that is expected to change over time, they can be used to selectively calibrate webcrawler results.

Effective Useful Life (EUL) The effective useful life is an estimate of the median number of years that a measure installed under a program is still in place and operable. While EULs could conceivably change over the over the life of the program, such changes might be difficult and costly to track reliably. Consistent with retention and persistence studies, the focus of RPP EUL estimates is to estimate the effective useful life for installed equipment, since this is what is producing program-generated savings.

EULs: Our Recommendation First choice: Use available research data For products that are federally-regulated, EUL should be based on research data used in the standards proceeding. Where this is not a federal standard, we will use best available research (e.g., EPA, manufacturers or other research). Delphi panel Use a formal consensus approach for generating EUL estimates from a group of experts. Ideal but more costly: Combine available research data and Delphi panel.

Our Requests to the Cal TF Do you agree with our recommended approaches to estimating these three parameters? Would you like any additional information about the proposed estimation approaches? Do you have any changes you would recommend to our proposed methods? Are there any additional approaches that you could recommend? Do you have suggestions about how to input parameter estimates into the E3 calculator?

Next Steps Approval of the UEC methodology Approval of methodologies for estimating key parameters RPP work paper draft review Review of parameter estimates RPP work paper approval

Questions?