Cruise Liner Schedule Jason Deleon Steve Rockwell Will Wathen

Background Vacation Cruise Industry (2012) – Over 20 Million passengers – Generated over $42 Billion in economic activity (US) OR Consultants hired by Major Cruise Liner – Analyze current voyage network – Minimize cost – Itinerary recommendations – Analyze resiliency of network – Impacts of catalysts *Paid hefty sum for analysis, no need to question results M

Real World Problem Network Design Measures of Effectiveness on an itinerary for an n day cruise – Cost (Transit and Port Fees) – Fun - Utility Analyze effects of desired fun – Relate to target demographics Impacts of catalyst i.e. weather, coup M

Network Map Overview M

Network Description Cruise Liner Voyage Network –Consists of all possible voyage routes –Connects all possible ports for a particular cruise liner (Royal Caribbean) –Time-layered network Each layer is a day M

Network Design Nodes: Port on a given cruise day i.e Haiti 3 – 16 Ports x 8 days = 128 nodes – S & T = Homeport = Fort Lauderdale, FL Node Data: Fun Factor, Lat/Long Edges: Connection of two ports from one time layer to another – Bahamas Haiti 4 (Two Day Transit) Edge Data: Cost = Transit Cost + Port Fees M

Five Day Time Layer Network (Subset) Day 0 Day 5 Day 4 Day 2 Day 3 Day 1 HA BAHHADR HABAHFL DR FL BAH FL BAHFL BAHHADRFL HADR HA DR

Five Day Time Layer Network (Subset) Day 0 Day 5 Day 4 Day 2 Day 3 Day 1 HA BAHHADR HABAHFL DR FL BAH FL BAHFL BAHHADRFL HADR HA DR

Nodes M

Start/End Node M

Example of Route M Day 0 Day 1 Day 3 Day 2 Day 5

Mathematical Model Shortest Path MILP Minimizing Port Costs & Transit Costs Netflow Constraints Design Constraints (Real World): No overnight stays in port Cannot return to visited port other than Homeport Length of cruise in days Analysis Fun Factor constraint M

Assumptions Direct Path - Navigable Route Great Circle Distance Average Speed of ship is constant : 25 knots Max Range: 400 NM/day Fun Factor: Excursions/Affordability Port Fees: $10-$25 per person. Haiti- $0 port fees - Long Term Lease in Labadee (Royal Caribbean). M

Situation Dependent Variables Travel Miles per day Cruise Length in days Cost of Fuel Fuel Consumption rate Ship speed Port Fees Fun Factor Range/day * All Variables can be modified to correspond to real cruise network M

Results: Min Cost 5-day Route: –FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3, FortLaud5 –Cost: $425, day Route: –FortLaud0, CaymanI2, Haiti4, Bahamas6, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 610, day Route: –FortLaud0, Bahamas1, StThomas4, PuertoRico5, StMaarten6, Haiti8, FortLaud10 –Cost: $ 891,990 M

Adding Utility Added Utility to the model – Fun Factor Utilized Constraint to ensure a certain level of “Fun” Increased Fun Factor from minimal feasible solution to maximum feasible solution – Cost Vs. Fun Relationship – Demographic Comparisons M

Utility: Fun Factor Cruise Length Fixed at 7 days 16: FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3, CaymanI5, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 610,296 19: FortLaud0, CaymanI2, DomRep4, Bahamas6, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 721,276 21: FortLaud0, StThomas3, PuertoRico4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 751,934 22: FortLaud0, StMaarten3, StThomas4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 836,982 24: FortLaud0, DomRep2, Aruba3, CaymanI5, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 902,282 M

Fun Factor vs. Cost P

Target Market (<$75k) - Marketing cruises based upon demographic. - Design cruise for family with combined income <$75k (~35% of passengers). - Priority of customer may be price and not necessarily itinerary. - Example: 16: FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3, CaymanI5, FortLaud7 Cost: $ 610,296

Target Market (>$75k) - Marketing cruises based upon demographic. - Design cruise for family with combined income >$75k (~65% of passengers). - Priority of customer may be itinerary and not necessarily price. -Example: -24: FortLaud0, DomRep2, Aruba3, CaymanI5, FortLaud7 Cost: $ 902,282

Multi-Segment Strategy - Utilizing a strategy to target multiple market segments that are based upon demographics. - If only one itinerary is marketed, what would attract the most customers? - Low price while providing moderate/high level of fun factor. -Example: 21: FortLaud0, StThomas3, PuertoRico4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 –Cost: $ 751,934

Attack

Scenario: 7- day Itinerary for “most fun” cruise route 2 days prior to departure – Hurricane Thelma hits – Randomly takes out ports – Follow on attacks Consultants called to find alternate route with a near equivalent fun factor

Max Fun Route - No Attack M

1 Attack M

2 Attacks M

3 Attacks M

4 Attacks M

5 Attacks M

6 Attacks M

7 Attacks M

8 Attacks M

9 Attacks M

10 Attacks M

Resiliency

Conclusion Shortest Path MILP – Minimizing Port Costs & Transit Costs – Analyzed impact of Fun Factor Positive Correlation (Fun & Cost) – Most Fun Cruise 1.5X as expensive as least Fun – Translates directly to Customer – Recommended Cruises based on Utility value Effects of Attacks & Resilience Key Take-aways P

Follow-on Work -Enable User Interface -Multiple Cruise Ship Types -Alternate Homeport Analysis -Add Granularity Detailed Routes, Detailed Cost Variables -Model Risks of traversing Bermuda Triangle

References -crusing.org/regulatory/issues-facts -cruiseweb.com/royal-caribbean/eastern- caribbean/#itinerariescruiseweb.com/royal-caribbean/eastern- caribbean/#itineraries -vacationstogo.com/cruise_port/Caribbean.cfmvacationstogo.com/cruise_port/Caribbean.cfm Professor Ned Dimitrov’s Brain

Questions? Cruise Liner Schedule P