1. Become familiar with relations among actors in transition. 2. Understand O’Donnell & Schmitter’s cycle of mobilization model. 3. Distinguish Huntington’s 3 types of transition and identify cases.

Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracyConservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

Government Opposition Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy Soft-linersHard-liners RadicalsModerates

 If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur.  If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely.  If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.

Initial Liberalization “Resurrection of Civil Society” - protests, disorder, demands Demobilization of Civil Society Soft-liners believe they can keep control of transition Hard-liners’ fears of disorder seem confirmed; their allies increase – fear of coup As fear of coup increases, opposition becomes more vocal People become tired and run out of resources; Soft-liners and moderates have become majority; negotiating over details rather than regime type

TransformationRuling elites take lead in democratizing ReplacementOpposition groups take lead TransplacementJoint actions by government and opposition (Source: Huntington, p. 114)

 Spain  Brazil  USSR  Bulgaria  Mexico

1. Sequence and scope of changes slower and more stable. 2. Allies of authoritarian regime have better chance of remaining relevant in regime that follows. 3. Requires emergence and strength of reformers in regime. 4. Occurs after failure of liberalization alone. 5. Involves coopting opposition.

 Romania  Argentina  Greece  East Germany  Tunisia? Typically personal dictatorships.

1. Regime dominated by hardliners. 2. Opposition gains strength until government collapses or is overthrown. 3. Military support of opposition usually key. Military support 4. Clean break with past. 5. Leaders of old regime often face nasty fates.

 Poland  Czechoslovakia  South Africa  Tunisia?

1. Combined actions of government and opposition. 2. Government and opposition both realize they are not powerful enough to determine regime type. 3. Characterized by negotiations, flip- flops.negotiations 4. Softliners & moderates come to feel bound together by fate.