Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruption on ENSO in a Coupled GCM Masamichi Ohba (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan) Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan) Masahiro Watanabe (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan) 2. Coupled GCM: MIROC5(T42 ver.) 1. Introduction b. El Niño & La Niña: Phase-dependency Experimental design Derived from obs. lag-regression ( ) to tropical optical thickness 2. Transition El Niño 2. Duration La Niña 200-yr Ctrl run La Nina Peak! Start from 1 July Initial:5 ensemble by LAF 1. Normal year init SVE: Forcing Identical twin forecast experiment 1. Normal year experiment 2. El Niño and La Niña phase experiment El Nino Peak! Explosive strong volcanic eruptions (SVE) acts to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation in the stratosphere, reducing the amount of surface solar radiation (Robock 2000). Analysis of paleo-climate records suggests that the radiative effects of tropical SVE can lead to a more El Niño–like state and increase the probability of El Niño occurrences (Adams et al. 2003; McGregor et al. 2010). It is of considerable importance to determine how the tropical Pacific Ocean responds to volcanic forcing, since El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect weather and climate around the globe. Using an simple anomaly air-sea coupled model (Zebiak and Cane 1987), Mann et al. (2005) and Emile-Geay et al. (2008) show an central eastern equatorial Pacific (CEP) warming in response to a uniform reduction of surface heat fluxes. The response can be explained by the dynamical thermostat mechanism (Clement et al. 1996). This mechanism assumes that the mean upwelling of subsurface water in the CEP combined with the reduction of the ocean vertical temperature gradient act to reduce the volcanic cooling in the region, that can excite a zonal SST gradient and then El Niño. The motivation for this study is to examine ENSO’s response to tropical SVE using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). No response La NiñaEl Niño Robock 2000 Adams et al Handler 1984 Handler & Andsager 1990 Nicholls 1990 Self et al McGregor et al McGregor & Timmerman 2011 Stenchikov et al Mann et al Emile-Geay 2008 Volcanic eruption initially cause Clement et al Obs. Simple model GCM Obs. 3. Impact of SVE on the ENSO a. Normal year experiment a. Normal year experiment SVE excites El Niño for the next year as revealed in the paleo-climate records. The result is very similar to SVE experiment in GFDL-CM2.1. (Stenchikov ea. 2007, AGU) 4 case 5 mem. composite IO-WP Cooling! CEP WarmingAnomalous westerly over the WP 4. Summary Super volcanic eruption (SVE) in MIROC5 ⇒ excites El Niño like condition by the anomalous WP westerly and then increase the probability of El Niño occurrences as revealed by observational data (Adams et al. 2003, McGregor et al. 2010). The response of MIROC5 is relatively similar to that of GFDL-CM2.1 (Stenchikov et al. 2007, AGU) The anomalous westerly could be mainly attributed to the land-sea contrast in surface cooling and its time-scale for adjustment, i.e., namely rapid response over the maritime continent. The role of dynamical thermostat (Clement et al. 1996) may be minor as shown in McGregor et al. (2011). SVE during El Niño ⇒ contribute to the duration of El Niño. SVE during La Niña ⇒ counteract to the La Niña duration. Because of the amplification by the air-sea coupled feedback, the effect of SVE on El Niño is much stronger than that in La Niña, which is consistent with Stenchikov et al. (2007). A rapid change in radiative forcing by geoengineering may constitute a risk to cause ENSO events. Red: SVE Black NoSVE As the SVE forcing increases, anomalous westerly (weakening of the trade winds) is found in the equatorial western Pacific (WP), that can potentially excite El Niño. ○ Early stage （around SVE peak） Cooling (with drying) around the Maritime Continent (MC). The zonal temperature gradient result in anomalous WP westerly. (Cooling over the MC reduces the Walker circulation) Cooling expand into the WP and Indian Ocean (IO). ○ Middle stage Onset of El Niño Mature phase of El Niño Reduced IO cooling and enhanced WP cooling 5 case 5 mem. composite Duration of El Niño! Solid: NoSVE Dash: SVE Weakened duration! SVE during El Niño ⇒ contribute to the duration of El Niño. SVE during La Niña ⇒ counteract to the La Niña duration. RMSE from Ctrl for El Niño is much lager than that for La Niña ⇒ The warming effect in the year during El Nino is much robust (Stenchikov et al. 2007). SVE amplitude-dependency El Niño phase is sensitive to change in the SVE intensity. The El Niño duration in response to the strong SVE is robust. Air-sea coupled feedback may Significantly amplify the response. Downward positive Enhanced wind speed & reduced q2 Also contribute to the cooling around the MC Decrease of surface temperature over the land is earlier (stronger) than that over the ocean surface. Cooling of the MC ocean is also earlier. MC Intermediate Coupled Model: How extent explain by the MC cooling ? SST Ocn：1.5-layer linear ocean model (ZC ocn model) Atm：Empirical atmospheric model Wind Input GCM surface condition T PO T MC CZ model SST GCM The role of dynamical thermostat (Clement et al. 1996) is relatively minor compared with the MC cooling. Sfc wind response is derived from regression on GCM. PDF W/m 2 (30S-30N) Instead of Nino-34 index, zonal difference of Ts is used. Enhanced zonal gradient between WP & CEP by SVE Most remarkable case Black: Anomaly in noSVE Green&Shd: Diff between SVE -noSVE El Niño-related anomalous westerly is strengthened around the SVE peak and then prevent the following transition Reduced Easterly anom. around SVE El Nino La Nina Red: SVE Black: NoSVE Normal