Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 1 st EUROBRISA.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Verification of Probabilistic Forecast J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie S. Mason - IRI.

Advertisements

Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) CPTEC-IRI.

ECMWF long range forecast systems

© Crown copyright Met Office The Met Office high resolution seasonal prediction system Anca Brookshaw – Monthly to Decadal Variability and Prediction,

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti CENTRO DE PREVISÃO.

Winter Surface Temperature Anomalies in Japan and East Asian Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with ENSO Kiyoharu Takano, Chiaki Kobayashi Meteorological.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION SCENARIOS ON SOUTHERN AFRICAN SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST SKILL Willem A. Landman Asmerom Beraki.

Teleconnection of Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean Oscillation with Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Nepal 8/8/20141 Lochan P. Devkota & Ujjwal Tiwari.

Crop yield predictions using seasonal climate forecasts SIMONE SIEVERT DA COSTA DSA/CPTEC/INPE Second EUROBRISA Workshop July.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

1 The EUROBRISA Project David Stephenson University of Exeter 3 rd EUROBRISA workshop, Barcelona, December 2010.

1 The EUROBRISA Project David Stephenson University of Exeter 2 nd EUROBRISA workshop, Dartmoor, UK, July 2009.

1 Visualising Seasonal Climate Forecasts Rachel Lowe - - EUROBRISA workshop - 17 Mar 2008 In collaboration with David Stephenson (University.

© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues)

© Crown copyright Met Office Andrew Colman presentation to EuroBrisa Workshop July Met Office combined statistical and dynamical forecasts for.

Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3.

Caio A. S. Coelho Supervisors: D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (*) Thanks to CAG, S. Pezzulli and M. Balmaseda.

Historical trends and multi-model ensemble forecasting of extreme events Dr. Caio A. S. Coelho University of Reading, U.K.

Caio A. S. Coelho Department of Meteorology University of Reading Met Office, Exeter (U.K.), 20 February 2006 PLAN OF TALK.

1 The EUROBRISA Project David Stephenson University of Exeter 1 st EUROBRISA workshop, Paraty, Brazil March 2008.

CANONICAL AND MODOKI ENSO AND INFLUENCES ON LA PLATA BASIN EXTREME EVENTS OF PRECIPITATION Renata G. Tedeschi 1 Alice M. Grimm.

India summer monsoon rainfall in ECMWF Sys3 – ICTP, August Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the ECMWF seasonal fc. System-3: predictability and.

© Crown copyright Met Office An Introduction to Long-range Forecasting Emily Wallace Nov 2012.

First EUROBRISA Workshop17 March 2008The ENSEMBLES project Model uncertainty in climate forecasting from seasons to decades: the ENSEMBLES project Francisco.

Belgrad nov SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France.

Assessing Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation for May-June-July in Kazakhstan Tony Barnston, IRI, New York, US.

Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) São Paulo, Brazil ( Integrated observed and modeled atmospheric water budget.

© Crown copyright Met Office Long-range forecasting Emily Wallace Nov 2012.

EUROBRISA Workshop – Beyond seasonal forecastingBarcelona, 14 December 2010 INSTITUT CATALÀ DE CIÈNCIES DEL CLIMA Beyond seasonal forecasting F. J. Doblas-Reyes,

Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin.

EUROBRISA WORKSHOP, Paraty March 2008, ECMWF System 3 1 The ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System-3 Magdalena A. Balmaseda Franco Molteni,Tim Stockdale.

Caio A. S. Coelho, D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (*) and M. Balmaseda (*) Department of Meteorology, University of Reading and ECMWF (*)

Seasonal forecasting from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES21 July 2009 Seasonal Forecasting From DEMETER to ENSEMBLES Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes ECMWF.

INTERANUAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LA PLATA BASIN AND EL NINO (CANONICAL AND MODOKI) - BEHAVIOR OF HADLEY AND GFDL MODELS Renata G. Tedeschi 1.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Subseasonal prediction.

Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2.

How well are Southern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models? Tércio Ambrizzi Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha Departament of.

Crop yield predictions using seasonal climate forecasts Simone M. S. Costa and Caio A. S. Coelho Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais – INPE, São.

© Crown copyright Met Office Standard Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (SVSLRF) Richard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre. With acknowledgements.

SOUTH AMERICAN CLIMATE DYNAMICS - A GENERAL VIEW Tércio Ambrizzi Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of São Paulo 1 ST IBERO-AMERICAN WORKSHOP.

How well are Southern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models? The return!! Rosmeri P. da Rocha and Tércio Ambrizzi University.

“Comparison of model data based ENSO composites and the actual prediction by these models for winter 2015/16.” Model composites (method etc) 6 slides Comparison.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

© Crown copyright Met Office Strategy for Seasonal Prediction Development: UKMO and WGSIP activities Adam Scaife Head Monthly to Decadal Prediction Met.

SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France

Teleconnection Patterns and Seasonal Climate Prediction over South America The Final Chapter??? Tércio Ambrizzi and Rosmeri P. da Rocha University of São.

Influence of the state of the IOD on the following year’s El Niño Takeshi Izumo, Jérôme Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Clément de Boyer Montegut, Swadhin.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information,

Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 10 th International.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 May 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 November 2011 For more information,

Caio A. S. Coelho, S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda (*), F. J. Doblas-Reyes (*) and D. B. Stephenson Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach.

Caio A. S. Coelho, S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda (*), F. J. Doblas-Reyes (*) and D. B. Stephenson Bayesian combination of ENSO forecasts Department of Meteorology,

© Crown copyright 2007 Forecasting weeks to months ahead Dr. Alberto Arribas Monthly-to-Decadal area, Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter, April 2014.

Fifth Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2014 Hitoshi Sato Climate Prediction.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

Man-sze, CHEUNG Hong Kong Observatory

Seasonal Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

GPC CPTEC: Seasonal forecast activities update

Met Office GPC Adam Scaife Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office.

Forecast Assimilation: A Unified Framework for the

Seasonal prediction of South Asian summer monsoon 2010: Met Office

Improved skill of ENSO coupled model probability forecasts by Bayesian combination with empirical forecasts Caio A. S. Coelho, S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda.

T. Ose, T. Yasuda (MRI/JMA), Y. Takaya, S. Maeda, C. Kobayashi

Tropical storm intra-seasonal prediction

Presentation transcript:

Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 1 st EUROBRISA workshop, Paraty, March 2008 Deriving South America seasonal rainfall from upper level circulation predictions

Conceptual framework Data Assimilation “Forecast Assimilation” Stephenson et al. (2005)

Calibration and combination experiment Common hindcast period: (19 years) y: observed rainfall (GPCP, Adler et al ) x: predicted upper level (200 hPa) circulation Use two EUROSIP model predictions: ECMWF System 3 UK Met Office Target season: DJF Start date: November (i.e. 1-month lead predictions for DJF) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996) is used to verify predicted upper level circulation

Upper level circulation u: zonal wind v: meridional wind  : stream function : zonal mean of  : perturbed (eddy) stream function u v

Observed perturbed stream function

ECMWF perturbed stream function

UKMO perturbed stream function

Perturbed stream function verification

El Niño Observed perturbed stream function anomaly

La Niña Observed perturbed stream function anomaly

La Niña El Niño Observed perturbed stream function anomaly

El Niño ECMWF perturbed stream function anomaly

La Niña ECMWF perturbed stream function anomaly

El Niño La Niña ECMWF perturbed stream function anomaly

El Niño UKMO perturbed stream function anomaly

La Niña UKMO perturbed stream function anomaly

El Niño La Niña UKMO perturbed stream function anomaly

Perturbed stream function anomaly verification

Prior: Likelihood: Posterior: Calibration and combination procedure: Forecast Assimilation Matrices Stephenson et al. (2005) Forecast assimilation uses first three leading MCA modes of the matrix Y T X. X: circulation predictions (ECMWF + UKMO) Y: DJF rainfall

Forecast Assimilation: First MCA mode

Forecast Assimilation: Second MCA mode

Forecast Assimilation: Third MCA mode

Correlation between predicted and observed anomalies Forecast Assimilation ECMWF UKMO Issued: November, Valid for DJF, Hindcast period:  Upper level circulation derived predictions obtained with forecast assimilation have comparable level of skill to indiv. model predictions

ECMWF UKMO Forecast Assimilation Ranked Probability Skill Score (tercile categories) Issued: November, Valid for DJF, Hindcast period:

Gerrity Score (tercile categories) ECMWF UKMO Forecast Assimilation Issued: November, Valid for DJF, Hindcast period:

ROC Skill Score (positive or negative anomaly) ECMWF UKMO Forecast Assimilation

Issued: November, Valid for DJF, Hindcast period: Reliability diagram (positive or negative anomaly) ECMWFUKMOForecast Assimilation  Forecast assimilation improves prediction reliability

ROC plot (positive or negative anomaly) Issued: November, Valid for DJF, Hindcast period: ECMWFUKMO Forecast Assimilation

Summary Forecast assimilation is a useful framework for exploring atmospheric teleconnections in seasonal forecasts ENSO atmospheric teleconnections is the main source of skill for South America rainfall predictions Combined and calibrated circulation derived predictions obtained with forecast assimilation have comparable level of skill to single model rainfall prediction Additional skill improvements can be investigated by including humidity predictions in the forecast assimilation procedure