MR. MAGDI FARAHAT, SENIOR ECONOMIST AND PARTNER, GLOBAL TRADE CONSULTANTS Uncertainty in a period of global downturn: Medium and long-term policy challenges

Arab Spring: One or many? Which Arab Spring? Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco or Syria? If many, how to prioritise responses? Which areas – and countries –to focus on? Main “players” in the region and their “internal struggles” ; a juggler’s nightmare. US, EU, China, Russia, GCC Is the glass “half full” or “half empty”?

Basic causes of Arab Spring Coming “on-line” of generation “Y”; the middle class; the “restless populations” Slowdown in national growth rates; oil exporters vs. importers Rising prices of food and fuel essentials Growing levels of unemployment, particularly for youth and women Jumps in public finance deficits and levels of national indebtedness (caused by growing subsidy bills) Increasing intolerance in the national political debate, and tighter controls on public and new media Rent-seeking and monopolies; transparency and the national “buy-in” Global economic slowdown

A proposed remedy Democratic development: Political and institutional reform, protection of individual liberties, promotion of human rights, rule of law, transparency and democratic participation. Economic growth: Public finance readjustment, debt control, investment and competition, infrastructure & energy, labour market reform, transparency in public affairs, business-climate reform. Social stabilisation: Education and health reform, housing, employee rights, working conditions, environmental protection, transparency standards.

Recipe for Europe 1. An “Open Europe”; goods, people, investments. At all costs, avoid protectionism. 2. A “Harmonious Europe”; coordinated internally and with other development partners. 3. A “Security-conscious Europe”; tackle the Arab Spring as a “package”. 4. A “Partner Europe”; a clearer long-term plan for shared prosperity, politically and economically. 5. A “ Reformist Europe”; setting the best examples and practices.

Thank you for your attention Questions & comments, please