AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture Joel O. Paz, Clyde W. Fraisse, Norman E. Breuer, John G. Bellow and David F. Zierden NOAA 32 nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Tallahassee, FL October 22-26, 2007

Agricultural Production in the Southeast Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat

Agricultural Production in the Southeast Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cattle and calves Cattle and calves

Agricultural Production in the Southeast Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat Cattle and calves Cattle and calves Pasture and hay Pasture and hay Vegetables Vegetables Poultry Poultry Blueberry, strawberry Blueberry, strawberry Peaches, citrus & other fruits Peaches, citrus & other fruits

Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold AlabamaFloridaGeorgia Crops $590 million $5 billion $1.6 billion Livestock $2.6 billion $1.2 billion $3.3 billion Total value $3.2 billion $6.2 billion $4.9 billion U.S. Rank Source: USDA 2002 Census of Agriculture

ENSO and Agriculture in the SE ENSO significantly influenced the value of corn, peanuts, soybean and tobacco (Hansen et al., 1998). ENSO significantly influenced the value of corn, peanuts, soybean and tobacco (Hansen et al., 1998). ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million, or 26%, in the value of corn. ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million, or 26%, in the value of corn.

ENSO and Agriculture in the SE $165 million of losses due to the El Niño event (Florida Dept. of Ag) $165 million of losses due to the El Niño event (Florida Dept. of Ag)

Farmer Joe’s Questions ENSO SST

Management Decisions Variety selection Variety selection Planting dates Planting dates

Management Decisions Variety selection Variety selection Planting dates Planting dates Acreage allocation Acreage allocation Amount and type of crop insurance Amount and type of crop insurance Marketing Marketing Purchase inputs Purchase inputs

Florida State University – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools, water resources University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment University of Georgia – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools, climate, water resources, assessment Auburn University – extension, economics, insurance University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources Southeast Climate Consortium

Major Activities AgClimate ( AgClimate ( Training and education Training and education Interaction with growers and producers Interaction with growers and producers

AgClimate Main mechanism for dissemination of information Main mechanism for dissemination of information  Tools  Outlooks

AgClimate Website

AgClimate Tools

Oct 1-Jan 15: 560 chill hours El Niño

Oct 1-Jan 15: 462 chill hours La Niña

Seasonal Outlooks

SECC Climate Outlook

State Climatologists AL, FL, and GA SECC Climate Outlook Press release Farmers & Ranchers Extension mailing list Regional TV & Radio

SECC Climate Outlook

SECC Agricultural Outlook SECC Extension Specialists SECC Ag Outlook Research & Extension (Auburn, UGA, UF) State Climatologists AL, FL, GA Press release Farmers & Ranchers Extension mailing list Regional TV & Radio

SECC Agricultural Outlook

Extension Articles

Extension Newsletter

Specific management recommendation - developed by Commodity Extension Specialist

County Agent Trainings AgClimate workshop (Jan 26, 2005)

County Agent Trainings AgClimate workshop for county agents (Statesboro, Georgia; Feb 7, 2006) AgClimate workshop for county agents (Griffin, Georgia; Feb 7, 2007)

Working with Farmers and Stakeholders Meeting with adivsory group in Headland, Alabama (February 26, 2007).

John Bellow showing the different features of the AgCclimate chill accumulation tool to Kathy Taylor (UGA Stone Fruit Specialist) and Frank Funderburk (Peach Co. Extension Coordinator). L-R: Joel Paz and Rabiu Olatinwo with Bob Kemerait (Extension Plant Pathologist) and Albert Culbreath (Plant Pathologist). Working with Research and Extension Faculty

Challenges Provide improved El Niño/La Niña forecasts Provide improved El Niño/La Niña forecasts Improve availability of timely updates Improve availability of timely updates How can the SECC improve the partnership with the Ag. Research Faculty and Cooperative Extension Service? How can the SECC improve the partnership with the Ag. Research Faculty and Cooperative Extension Service?

Thank you! Dr. Joel O. Paz University of Georgia Griffin, GA

Regional Yield Maps

Rainfed Peanut (Georgia)

SECC Objectives Outreach Outreach Research and Development Research and Development Partnerships Partnerships Monitoring & Assessment Monitoring & Assessment