Tradeoff Analysis System: Policy Decision Support for Agriculture.

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Presentation transcript:

Tradeoff Analysis System: Policy Decision Support for Agriculture

To make informed decisions, public and private decision makers need accurate information about the economic and environmental consequences of agricultural systems. Tradeoff Analysis is a process designed to link decision makers to teams of scientists with tools that can provide this information.

Public stakeholders Policy makers Scientists Research priority settingProject design & implementation Inform stakeholders Identify sustainability criteria Formulate hypotheses as potential tradeoffs Identify disciplines for research project Identify models and data needs define units of analysis Collect data and implement disciplinary research Tradeoff analysis process

The Tradeoff Analysis Model © is a GIS-based system designed to integrate disciplinary data and models to implement the Tradeoff Analysis approach.

GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp Policy Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp User shell Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp Policy Survey Weather Economic models GIS DSSAT DBMS Leachp Survey Weather Economic models A modular approach to data and model integration Most bio-economic data and models are application-specific and therefore are of limited usefulness to the scientific community.

Econ Returns Carbon rate Tradeoff Curves: Sustainability Indicators, incentives and Scenarios Conventional Conservation “Additionality” Concepts: Baseline, additionality, and permanence 1 2

Economic principle of opportunity cost Intuitive appeal Easy-to-understand (2-d) Quantifies concept of sustainability Represents risk: joint distributions of outcomes –Health risk thresholds –Climate vulnerability A useful way to communicate properties of complex agricultural systems: Tradeoff curves

Examples Economic – environment – health tradeoffs associated with pesticide use (Ecuador study, see Sustainability of agriculture on steeply sloped hillsides (hydric and tillage erosion, terracing, carbon). Carbon sequestration as a mechanism to finance adoption of sustainable production systems and institutions.

Carbon Rate vs Net Returns (Tradeoff Variable = Peanut Price)

Net return (  ) Carbon rate (  C)  C(P 0,  C )  C(P 0,  V ) System dynamics: productivity effects of carbon accumulation emerge over time  C (T 1 )  C (T 2 )  V (T 1 )  1  2 1 2

MONDAY AM GROUPS Each Group Selects Moderator & Rapporteur GROUP 1 Modou Sene Andre Meerkerk Alioune Dieng Ibrahima Hathie Magatte Ba John Antle Gibson Guvheya GROUP2 Mamadou Khouma Sibiry Traore Adrien Mankor Abdou Thiam Luke Abatania Bocar Diagana Boris Bravo-Ureta GROUP3 Ibrahima Diedhiou Jesse Naab Astou Sene Mouhamadou Sy Ibrahima Diop Gaye Jetse Stoorvogel Tim Williams