Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 3 January 2011 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Australia: Several weeks of persistent and very heavy tropical rainfall across Queensland has caused extensive flooding and severe damage to cities, towns, and croplands. The GFS forecasts a continuation of the abnormal rainfall pattern in Queensland, with increased rainfall across parts of western Australia due to an approaching tropical disturbance. Southern Africa: Scattered showers and thunderstorms brought generally above average accumulations to southern Africa’s corn growing regions. The GFS forecasts a continuation of favorable showers and thunderstorms across southern Africa. South America: Heavy rainfall fell across a swath from Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais, while below average rainfall was observed across southern Brazil and northern and eastern Argentina. The GFS forecasts continued widespread rainfall across central Brazil, with less rainfall to the east. Increased rainfall is expected across Argentina, particularly across southern farmlands. Highlights

ENSO Current Status For more information go to: During the last 4-weeks (5 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 160°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average in some areas. General Summary: La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The MJO signal became increasingly incoherent during the previous week. The operational GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean forecasts indicate a continued incoherent MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks.

Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South AmericaSouthern AfricaAustralia December rainfall improved moisture levels across most of southern Africa, but pockets of persistent rainfall deficits remain across portions of South Africa’s maize triangle and far northern Mozambique. For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Below average precipitation was observed across much of South America, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, northeastern Argentina, and west-central Brazil. Three-month precipitation across eastern Brazil remained near to above average. Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across most of Australia during the previous 90 days, with much above average rainfall along Queensland’s eastern coast. Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Southern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During 26 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011, easterly flow across Australia promoted well above average temperatures in the west, while persistent onshore transport of tropical moisture in Queensland aggravated the severe flooding situation (note the low-level below average temperature anomalies across northeastern Australia are due to cloud cover, see also the following slide). Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A

Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than- average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During 26 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011, strong anomalous rising motion (negative omega) persisted across northern Australia and Queensland, promoting continued torrential rainfall and aggravating the severe flooding situation. Areas of negative omega observed across parts of central and eastern Brazil and southern Africa were also associated with increased thunderstorm activity. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Australia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, heavy rainfall continued across northern Australia’s monsoon regions, as well as across northern and east central Queensland, aggravating the severe flooding situation.

Queensland Flooding More than 200,000 people afflicted by flood waters, with one declared fatality. Australian officials report that half of Queensland’s land area is affected by floodwaters. 22 towns/cities in Queensland have been inundated by floods, caused by several weeks of persistent, heavy rainfall. Source: Reuters (MSNBC) Source: BOM

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the previous 15 days, much above average rainfall persisted across northern Australia and much of Queensland, causing extensive flooding.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the previous 30 days, much above average rainfall was observed across northern Australia and Queensland, while a tropical disturbance brought heavy rainfall early in the period to coastal Western Australia.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the heavy early December rains across southern Australia followed by drier weather, the persistent heavy rainfall across Queensland, and the recent increase in rainfall across southwestern Australia.

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Hot weather overspread western and southern Australia, while cloud cover and heavy rainfall promoted below average high temperatures across Queensland and Northern Territory.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Jan 2011), heavy rainfall is expected to continue across much of Queensland, continuing to aggravate the flooding situation. A new tropical disturbance is forecast to bring areas of rainfall to coastal Western Australia during the upcoming week.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Jan 2011), widespread heavy rainfall is forecasted to return to northern Australia and persist in Queensland.

Southern Africa Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly Scattered showers and thunderstorms brought above average accumulations to much of South Africa’s corn belt region. Below average rainfall was observed across far northern South Africa and Mozambique.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, near to locally above average rainfall was observed across South Africa, particularly across the south-central maize triangle.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, above average rainfall was observed across the croplands of southern Africa.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the favorable moisture observed across most of southern Africa during the previous three weeks.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Near average temperatures were observed across southern Africa during the previous week, with no stressful heat across South Africa’s maize triangle.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Jan 2010), scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue across southern Africa, including South Africa’s corn belt region.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Jan 2011), lingering showers are expected across southern Africa as heavier rain develops to the north and in Mozambique.

Brazil & Argentina Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Widespread heavy thunderstorms overspread corn and soybean croplands from Mato Grosso eastward into Minas Gerais, while dry weather overspread southern Brazil. Below average rainfall was observed across central and eastern Argentina, while above-average rainfall fell across the more arid pasturelands of northwestern Argentina.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Despite a recent uptick in thunderstorm activity across central and eastern Brazil, two week rainfall totals were generally below average outside of pockets of Goias and Minas Gerais. Generally below average rainfall was observed across Argentina’s farmlands, with areas of above average rainfall observed in the north central states.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly Below average monsoon rains were observed across central Brazil, with heavier rain observed along the eastern coastline and portions of southern Brazil. Rainfall accumulations across most of Argentina were below average during the 30 day period.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days Time series depict the generally below average rainfall across central South America during the previous 30 days, despite the recent uptick in rainfall across central Brazil. Note also the recent dryness across southern Brazil (bottom right panel), following heavier rainfall in early December.

Temperature (°C) - Brazil Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Near to above average temperatures were observed throughout Brazil during the previous week.

Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Temperature (°C) - Argentina Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Near to above average temperatures were observed across Argentina during the previous week, with widespread highs topping 35 deg C.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Jan 2011), widepsread rainfall is expected to continue across central Brazil, though accumulations in some areas, particularly towards the east, are expected to be below average. Increased rainfall is possible across Argentina, with lcoally heavy rains across Buenos Aires and La Pampa.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Jan 2011) locally heavy rainfall is possible across north central Brazil, with above average precipitation in the southeast contrasting with below average rainfall in eastern Brazil. Drier weather is expected to return to Argentina.

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